Electoral College VotesToday -- December 19, 2016

Aleppo: according to hosts at MSNBC "Morning Joe" Obama's legacy will be viewed through the Aleppo unfiltered lens. Period. Dot. It all connects back to him. By the way, on another note, there seems to be a huge weight lifted off the shoulders of all the folks around "Morning Joe's" table (with a couple notable exceptions). It seems this crew is finally saying what they have wanted to say for the past several years but were not allowed. For the first time, I hear "honesty" with regard to their analysis of President Obama and his foreign policy decisions, and very, very balanced with regard to PEOTUS. That would be Trump, assuming Electoral College doesn't stage a coup.

Sand. Saudi Arabia, with great fanfare, announces it has just taken delivery of its first wind turbine (announced 9 minutes ago -- about 6:26 a.m. Central Time). Yes, one wind turbine. Wiki notes that North Dakota has twelve wind farms -- not twelve turbines, but twelve wind farms. And wiki admits the list is incomplete. The #1 problem for US helicopters flying combat missions out of Saudi Arabia during Gulf wars? Very, very fine gritty sand that got into everything, including rotors. Dust/sand and solar panels is a major challenge but being worked; that problem will pale in comparison to rotors and sand. Memo to self: google status of Saudi's one wind turbine one year from now.

Planes. Airbus -- first jets to Iran within weeks; Boeing -- deal with Boeing, preceded by months of regulatory delays, has only just been signed. Or as the Carpenters would sing, "we've only just begun."

Presidential campaign poll: before the Comey letter, Hillary polled 40.0%; after the Comey letter came out, Hillary polled 40.2%. An inconvenient truth.

Press conference: "I told Putin to 'cut it out' after DNC hack" -- President Obama. McCain: "I'm sure Putin quit hacking as soon as Obama told him to quit."


Shootings: quiet in Chicago overnight? At "Breaking News" right now --

• 20 items; 4 of those 20 items have to do with shootings in the US
• Memphis (one dead); Monaca, PA (gunshots heard); Houston (shooter opens fire inside night club, one dead); Corpus Christi (one wounded after gunshot); Kent, WA (triple shooting overnight; 1 woman dead)
• it must have been a quiet night in Chicago -- not one gunshot reported over at "Breaking News" 

Later. I wrote the previous note ("quiet in Chicago overnight"). It turns out I was correct. LOL. The graphic below is Chicago shootings.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

	12/19/2016	12/19/2015	12/19/2014	12/19/2013	12/19/2012
Active Rigs	40	64	182	188	187

RBN Energy: stock levels whipsaw the propane market.

U.S. propane inventories rose by an impressive 55 million barrels (MMbbl) during the spring/summer/fall of 2014, and the mild winter of 2014-15 left propane stocks at well-above-normal levels the following spring. Another impactful inventory build—53 MMbbl—occurred during 2015’s March-to-November stock-building season, leaving propane stocks at a record 104 MMbbl as the freakishly mild winter of 2015-16 started.

But propane inventories grew much more slowly through the spring/summer/fall of 2016, due in part to rising exports, and—while stocks are high as this winter begins—even-higher exports and the possibility of real winter weather raise the specter of an especially big drop in stored volumes. In today’s blog we begin a series on the significance of propane inventory levels with a look at why propane stocks rose so much in the 2014 and 2015 stock-building seasons.

Some data points:

• To sum up 2014, growing supply outran demand (despite a big assist from exports), and stocks built by an average of 225 Mb/d from March through October 2014.
• Moving forward another year, during the 2015 stock-building season, total propane supply averaged 1,831 Mb/d­­—a whopping 552 Mb/d higher than during the 2011 season. On the demand/export side, product supplied during the non-winter months was about flat with 2014 at 1,048 Mb/d, although for different reasons.  
• To sum up 2015, the same thing happened again: growing supply again outran rising exports, and domestic demand was flat, resulting in a 53-MMbbl stock build.
• The 20-MMbbl difference between a big stock-build year like 2015 (53 MMbbl added to inventory from end of winter to start of winter) and a more typical stock-build year like 2011 (35 MMbbl) may seem like a lot (and it is). But when you look at it from a stock-build-per-day perspective—and you factor in the magnitude of propane demand and the much bigger role that exports have taken on—you can see how quickly things can change.

Then, RBN does the math.

A contributor over at SeekingAlpha also does the "natural gas production and storage forecast for 2017." I have not read the article, nor did I even look at who wrote the article.