RINS And Refining -- November 18, 2016

Futures: Dow 30 green again. Oil up slightly.

Trump's threat to place a 35% tariff on cars manufactured in Mexico: Trump tweeted late last night to say that the Chairman of Ford called him personally to say that Ford has decided to keep Lincoln production in Kentucky. Trump reminded folks that he owed this to Kentucky for the state's confidence in Trump as president. There remains a bit of "confusion" exactly what's moving, who said what when, but the headline is what it is. A reader sent me the Bloomberg link.

New CIA director: member of the Republican Party's Tea Party; graduated first in his class from West Point; close confidant of Mike Flynn's -- see below. (Look at the age of the new CIA director and then see comments on age below.)

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

	11/18/2016	11/18/2015	11/18/2014	11/18/2013	11/18/2012
Active Rigs	38	65	184	183	187

RBN Energy:  RIN costs and their widely varying impact on refiners and refining.

Over the past few weeks, publicly traded independent refining companies reported their latest quarterly results, and nearly all lamented on a common theme: the cost of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) is out of control. However, the financial burden is not felt equally across the industry, as companies with integrated marketing operations (refining, blending and retailing) don’t face the same RINs-cost albatross as merchant refiners who don’t have retail operations. Today we review the escalating RIN costs that obligated parties have endured this year and explain how the degree of financial pain depends on the level of refiners’ downstream integration.

RINs have become a leading topic of conversation—and angst—in the refinery sector, and we’ve been exploring the matter in the RBN blogosphere. In our initial bl 

og a few years ago, we described the evolution of ethanol mandates and the limits on how much ethanol can be blended into gasoline without affecting engine performance.

OPEC meeting: cut of at least 700,000 bopd needed to bring market balance -- Rigzone.

OPEC meeting: Saudi's oil minister urges OPEC to cut oil output to low end of target. The ceiling: 32.5 million bopd. In the September, 2016, meeting OPEC agreed to limit between 32.5 million and 33 million bopd.

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WSJ Headlines That Caught My Eye

Michigan seeks stay of order to deliver bottled water to Flint, MI:

• delivering almost 400,000 cases/week is "unnecessary and likely unable to carry out"; 
• four cases of water per resident each week to roughly 30,000 homes; 
• door-to-door delivery would cost about $10.5 million a month; 
• currently 78,000/week being delivered through distribution centers around the city

Scotch whisky makers to appeal ruling on minimum alcohol prices

• industry says rule incompatible with EU rule
• Scotland's highest court: ruled that a floor on per-unit alcohol prices is legal
• law passed by Scotland's parliament in 2012 to combat alcohol abuse
• the law established a 50-pence floor on per-unit alcohol prices
• not yet enacted due to law being tied up in court since 2012

The key to reducing oil imports to zero -- an op-ed from John Hofmeister (not worth reading)

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The Political Page

Newest presidential appointments:

• CIA Director: Mike Pompeo, US Representative, Kansas; West Point, Harvard Law School, member of the Tea Party Movement
• Attorney General: Jim Sessions, US Senator, Alabama

If Alabama's Senator Sessions leaves Alabama to become a member in the Trump administration, who might replace him as a senator from Alabama? The governor of Alabama will appoint a "short-term" replacement and set a date for an election to fill the Sessions' vacancy. The short list:

• US Representative Martha Roby (she and Terri Sewell were the first women elected to Congress from Alabama in regular elections)
• Attorney General Luther Strange
• state senator Trip Pittman
• state senator Cam Ward

Did I hear this correctly on MSNBC Morning Joe this morning? In the US House of Representatives, the average age of the:

• Democratic congressmen: 68 years old
• Republican congressmen: 48 years old 
• the Democrats have lost 68 US House positions during the Obama administration (8 years) 

Add Japan's Abe to Trump's column: says Trump is trustworthy leader.

Bloomberg to end its daily politics show. The hosts are Mark Halperin and John Heilemann. The daily program will be off the air as of December 2, 2016, but will air four hour-long specials before finally coming to a close on January 20, 2016. The program first aired in October, 2014.

Conflict of interest? All that talk about a "blind Trump trust" is just that, "media talk." Won't happen; not required.