Back To The Permian -- November 17, 2016

This morning on MSNBC Morning Joe it was mentioned that the USGS analysis of the Permian showed:

• 20 billion bbls
• largest continuous reservoir USGS has ever surveyed
• 3x the size of the Bakken

I took another look at the first note at the blog regarding this new survey. At the post, the Permian:

• an estimated and previously unaccounted for 20 billion bbls crude oil
• 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas; and, 
• 1.6 billion bbls of natural gas 

Let's go back to some earlier posts on the size of the Bakken:

• a trillion-bbl reservoir?
• Bentek: 2.2 million bopd
• USGS 2013 Bakken-Three Forks: top line estimate: 11.4 billion bbls
• Bakken production through 2040

Comments derived from those links regarding the Bakken follow.

A trillion-bbl reservoir:

• the trillion-bbl reservoir first posited by CLR, was eventually pulled back to the Leigh Price number, 500 billion bbls
• a 3% primary recovery rate of 500 billion bbls = 15 billion bbls
• a 10% primary recovery rate of 500 billion bbls = 50 billion bbls

Bentek and EIA, Bakken production 2040:

• 1.5 million bopd average through 2030; 2016 - 2030 =  15 yrs x 365 days/yr x 1.5 million bopd = 8,200 million bbls = 8 billion bbls (sub-total)
• 2.0 million bopd average, 2031 - 2040) = 10 years x 365 days/yr x 2 million bopd = 7,300 million bopd = 7 billion bbls (sub-total)
• 1 million bopd average after 2040 through unknown number of years
• total estimate based on Bentek, EIA presentations in the past: 8 billion + 7 billion + x billion = at least 15 billion bbls
• everyone pretty much agrees 3% recovery rate is a very, very conservative recovery rate for the Bakken; Whiting has suggested as much as 8%

USGS Permian and Bakken surveys

• for the Bakken-Three Forks: top-line estimate -- 11.4 billion bbls
• I've not see USGS's top-line estimate for the Permian; the headline number is 20 billion bbls
• 20 billion bbls is not 3x the size of the Bakken
• but that's about right: USGS mid-range estimate for the Bakken: 7.4 billion bbls; for the Permian: 20 billion bbls

This graphic was posted by the EIA earlier this year, August 22, 2016:

Note the amount of dark blue (Bakken) vs the Wolfcamp (blue).

In light of the new USGS survey of the Permian the graph will have to be re-done (I would suppose).