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Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Jobs -- A New Magic Number -- October 12, 2016

This is quite remarkable. Regular readers are well aware of the "magic numbers" when it comes to jobs.

Now this, from Reuters:
With the bulk of the labor market slack largely absorbed and the economy's recovery from the 2007-09 recession aging, the slowdown in payrolls growth is normal.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has said the economy needs to create just under 100,000 jobs a month to keep up with population growth.
For those who have forgotten, the magic numbers:
  • First time claims, unemployment benefits: 400,000 (> 400,000: economic stagnation)
  • New jobs: 200,000 (< 200,000 new jobs: economic stagnation)
To avoid economic stagnation, 200,000 new jobs need to be created each month.

Janet Yellen now has a new magic number: "just under" 100,000 new jobs each month are all that is needed to keep up with population growth.

So, let's call it the "Yellen magic number: 100,000."

I do not know if her "population growth" number includes the surge of undocumented workers streaming across the borders. Hillary wants "open borders," as does John Kerry.

Back to the Reuters story: I'm not sure if it was a news story or an op-ed. Reuters does not do op-ed, but this certainly sounds like an op-ed:
With the bulk of the labor market slack largely absorbed and the economy's recovery from the 2007-09 recession aging, the slowdown in payrolls growth is normal.
Many, I'm sure would disagree with both halves of that two-part sentence. 

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