Filloon: WIth A Bakken Update -- October 8, 2016

Active rigs:

	10/8/2016	10/08/2015	10/08/2014	10/08/2013	10/08/2012
Active Rigs	33	68	190	184	193

Mike Filloon has a Bakken update over at SeekingAlpha: Pioneer's Sale Ranch reaches breakeven in 5 years at $30 oil. Summary:

• Pioneer's top prospect is Sale Ranch in Martin County Texas
• This prospect has seen 85 completions to date with excellent results
• Current calculations of the Sale Ranch type curve provide very good economics at $50/bbl oil and even performs adequately at $30/bbl

By the way, other than in "Bakken Update," the word Bakken is found nowhere in that update. However, the use of the phrase is not inappropriate. The word "Bakken" has three "meanings" for those who have followed the Bakken from the beginning. One of the three meanings: the "Bakken" is a metonym for the US shale revolution (see the last entry at this post).

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Mars Attacks!

Warren Buffett makes a killing on Mars Candy -- Business Insider, October 5, 2013.
Mars buying out Warren Buffett to take full control of Wrigley -- Forbes, October 6, 2016. We don't know much but we know this:

• Berkshire quarterly report: Wrigley represented a $2.1 billion preferred stake
• Wrigley provided an annual 5% dividend
• the original agreement (back in 2013) allowed Mars to repurchase half of BRK's stake over 90 days beginning this past week (October 6, 2016, to be exact) and the remaining half in 2021
• Mars has "accelerated" the purchase of BRK's entire equity interest in Wrigley
• this is what we don't know: how much Mars paid for the opportunity to complete this deal five years early 
• my hunch: a 15% premium and the dividends that BRK would have received over the five years (= $315 million + $525 million, respectively) 
• Yahoo!Finance: prior to this deal, BRK had $64.82 billion in cash

Mars Attacks!

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3-Day Weekend

I was up at 5:20 a.m. this morning. As I noted late last night, May and I have a 3-day weekend. We have absolutely no commitments this weekend with regard to soccer or water polo or taking care of the two-year-old. One would think I would want to start the weekend by sleeping in.

I could say that I got up at 5:20 a.m. because I did not want to miss a minute of the wonderful 3-day weekend that lay in front of me.

In fact, I couldn't sleep.

The first "news" story I read was the the Yahoo!Finance story about the "relationship" between Waffle House and FEMA. It is such a great story on so many levels, but for me this was most interesting: the dedication of the managers and staff of any given Waffle House.

Having lived in the south for quite some time, particularly in the Charleston, SC, area, I am very, very familiar with Waffle Houses. They were one of the first establishments that I visited when I first came to South Carolina. 

Waffle Houses "never" close. For Waffle House managers and staff to leave their own families and their own homes to come to work in the middle of hurricane watches, warnings, and storms speaks volumes. The article said that it was a challenge for some managers to lock up their Waffle Houses ahead of Hurricane Matthew because they couldn't find the key to the front door to lock up, so seldom is the Waffle House ever closed, and locked up.

FEMA now includes the "Waffle House index" as a proxy for  how bad things are: "green" is full operations; "yellow" is partial menu and generator power; and, "red" is the apocalypse.

I was reading that story in bed on a 2nd generation iPad. It was impossible for me not to get up and have some waffles and coffee.