Control Of The Entire Middle East And World Oil -- Putin's Quest? October 15, 2016

Updates

October 21, 2016: update on Moscow's Club Med. 

October 21, 2016: the number of ships in this flotilla has now increased to ten; the original seven went to eight, and now we learn that these eight will join another two already en route.

October 20, 2016: Russian ready to land a knock-out blow on the Aleppo rebels; give Assad a huge victory; and give President Obama (perhaps golfing) a black eye. Russia's entire Northern Fleet and much of the Baltic Fleet in the largest surface deployment since the end of the Cold War will soon launch on Aleppo.

October 19, 2016: The [London] Sun's take on this. A bit of hyperbole, methinks:

Defence expert for Russian news agency RIA, Alexander Khrolenko, said: "While the North Atlantic bloc is stalling in the sands of the Middle East, the Russian Navy seizes control over the Atlantic, not to mention the Mediterranean and Black Seas."

October 15, 2016: see first comment. The source is Russian press, and their focus is something different than what the Western press might note. Reading things quickly, and possibly misreading things, this is what I see:

• Russia is moving an a/c carrier group into America's Sea
• Russia has one aircraft carrier
• they are moving that aircraft carrier (and six additional vessels) to the eastern Mediterranean

This a/c carrier group has been in the Mediterranean on several prior occasions beginning back in 1995.

The deployment may be nothing more than a "PR" move but it does give Putin more options. We will know more over the next several days when the Western media begins to report this story. I'm looking for the WSJ to report the story on page 3 of their first section (page A3).

I doubt the Russians are bringing the a/c carrier group in to support President Obama's goals in the region.

October 15, 2016: Another missile was fired earlier tonight -- http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/uss-mason-fired-again-coast-yemen-officials-n666971. One must assume these rebels are getting "intel" with outside help, and most likely, "someone else" is "calling the shots."

Original Post

 

I am tracking recent events in the Mideast in various posts on the blog. The earlier post today was to help me keep track of what this all means. There are just too many moving parts, and I often "lose the bubble."

A reader responded with a great observation. I can't disagree. I, too, am concerned that we are coming perilously close to a major US/Russian confrontation somewhere in the Mideast. Where, I have no idea, but the reader presented this very interesting observation and argument:

For all the reasons you give (at the linked post above) I personally feel some of this is a diversion on the part of Russia and Iran to go after a much bigger prize: control of the whole Middle East and world oil.

I think the real battle shaping up will take place in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait a narrow chokepoint between the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea and in the Straits of Hormuz between the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf.

Recent unchecked harassment of our naval vessels in the Straits of Hormuz and then the three recent missile attacks on two US destroyers and a US flagged leased ship off of Yemen is a sign of Iran’s aggression now with their pockets full of cash as a result of the Iranian Nuclear agreement.

Following our retaliatory strike, the Iranians deployed several Iranian naval vessels to the Bab el-Mandeb Straits which ups the ante. I would imagine new radar systems will reappear in time but protected with Russian supplied modern anti-aircraft missiles systems. [An "actionable" observation to watch.]

Controlling these two choke points and isolating movement of Saudi oil except through the Suez Canal along with diminishing their regional influence. This would put Iran and Russia in a very dominate position considering the current weak and spineless US administration which will likely be followed by the same policies after the election.

Personally I think we are dealing with a repeat of the late 1930s and a devastating war in the future.

I don't think it's beyond the pale to think that Iran/Russia are looking to make Saudi Arabia a land-locked country. I don't think it's beyond the pale this could happen within the next 36 months. Remember: Hillary supports Iran. Congress recently overrode President's only veto in his presidency, voting against Saudi Arabia.

More on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait here and it's strategic significance.