Update On The Bakken -- Lynn Helms -- September 23, 2016

There may be factual and typographical errors on this page. Some of this is my own opinion. If this information is important to you, to go the source. 

Do not rely on the MillionDollarWay blog for accurate information about the Bakken. The website's author is inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. 

Data points from The Williston Herald and a radio interview, September 23, 2016:

• North Dakota production will likely dip below 1 million bopd but not below 900,000 bopd
• wells continue to get better and better
• Bakken is 94% oil (important fact to remember when comparing the Bakken with the Permian and the Eagle Ford)
• if IPs used to average 1,100, now they are averaging 1,500
• at the beginning of the boom, Bakken wells were estimated to continue producing for 30 years; now it is estimated that Bakken wells will produce for 35 years
• Bakken wells EURs have increased 25%
• 8,000 to 8,500 wells drilled using old technology might be good refrack candidates
• high point for the Bakken: 2023
• based on $50 to $60 oil
• 65,000 wells
• peak rig count of 150
• in a slow year (current year, for example), "we" won't reach 2,500 wells drilled/year
• in one scenario, those additional wells won't be drilled until 2035, but with a spike in oil prices, they could be drilled in 2017
• forecasting important: it affects issues such as crew camps
• oil in the $50 to $60 range: 900 DUCs highly economical
• frack crews now average in the range of five to eleven (5 - 11)
• at peak prices, there were 50 frack crews operating in the Bakken
• at $60 oil, the Bakken is superior to the Permian and the Eagle Ford
• today's rigs average 25 wells/year vs 8 or 9 wells in 2009
• multi-well pads, new bit technology, new motor technology, new mud technology
• recently an operator drilled a 3-mile lateral with one bit and one motor (previously reported at the blog); typically, an operator would require three bits/well
• Lynn Helms does not sound optimistic about the DAPL

A reminder: tight oil plays in the US -- EIA -- annual energy outlook (2016) -- out to 2040: graphic here.

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Air Park East Of Williston

Red Mike golf course east of Williston; air park moving along. Opportunity for individuals to build homes next to runway for private airplanes. Approval to close a section line road to the lake was approved. There are two access points to the lake in the immediate area: one access point one mile to the east, and one access point one mile west.

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A Note For The Granddaughters 

For a great book on "Helen of Troy" this may be one of the best: Helen of Troy: The Story Behind the Most Beautiful Woman in the World, Bettany Hughes, c. 2005.

Six pages of maps.

Timeline: 7 pages

Dramatis Personae, Greek gods, family trees: 3 pages

Text: 343 pages

Notes: 67 pages

Bibliography: 5 pages

Other works: 25 pages

Index: 14 pages