Saudi Arabia, OPEC Announce Cut; Two Hotels In Williston To Close -- September 29, 2016

Minimal blogging through the weekend; traveling. 

Active rigs:

	9/29/2016	09/29/2015	09/29/2014	09/29/2013	09/29/2012
Active Rigs	34	69	186	184	190

RBN Energy: US DUCs.

At long last, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported an “official” estimate of the U.S. drilled-and-uncompleted well (DUC) inventory as part of its monthly Drilling Productivity Report.  DUCs are a critical factor in forecasting production trends, as many of these wells are likely to be some of the first to come online as soon as prices move higher and thus have the potential to boost production quicker and easier than would otherwise be the case. However, the number of DUCs has been a difficult thing to measure, though not for lack of trying. There are, in fact, widely varying counts from many different sources circulating in the industry. Today, we begin a short series on these latest DUC counts and their potential implications.

Drilled-and-uncompleted wells, or DUCs, aren’t a new phenomenon. In fact, producers have always carried an inventory of DUCs. But in the environment of low prices and slashed capital budgets the market has been experiencing for the past 20 months or so, DUCs have taken on new relevance, not only as a tool for producers to manage their lease agreements and rig activity, but also as a control valve for production volumes, whether it is to defer supply to a future date or to quickly and economically turn on new production as prices rebound and/or as pipeline capacity is built. You can imagine, then, how without an accurate estimate of DUCs and the rate of actual completions, the current market is ripe for underestimating future production volumes that solely rely on existing and newly drilled wells.

Saudi Arabia's trillion dollar mistake. CNBC.  From WSJ.

Sources told Reuters that OPEC hammered out a deal on Wednesday to reduce the cartel's production to 32.5 million barrels per day from around 33.24 million, with output levels for each member to be determined in November.

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Hoboken Commuter Train Crash

Updates

October 1, 2016: I remember when this story first broke. Every update in the first 12 hours said that the engineer was cooperating with law enforcement. Now, we learn that as of today, investigators have still not talked with the engineer, and that asbestos concerns in the terminal has slowed down the investigation. The investigation is expected to last a full year. 

Original Post 

At least one dead; 70+ injured; in commuter train accident, Hoboken, NJ. Thank goodness it did not involve Bakken crude oil. I wonder if NY/NJ governors will ban commuter trains which have now killed more Americans than CBR carrying Bakken oil. Or any oil for that matter. All that technology being spent on "driverless cars" seems to be a solution for a problem that doesn't exist. Maybe they should be working on "driveless" technology for killer kommuter trains. Latest: the killer kommuter konductor had "health problems." (TV report, McDonald's, crawler, 12:16 p.m. Central Time.)

By the way, FWIW, another Tesla "on auto-pilot" crashes -- this one on German autobahn. 

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Bakken Economy

Two Williston Hotels Closing

The Dickinson Press:

The Missouri Flats Inn, once featured on a TV reality show “Hotel Impossible,” and the Marquis Plaza and Suites will be closing their doors this week.

In addition, it appears that man-camps in the Williston area, including the large one near Tioga, have closes. I can't say for sure, but I saw no vehicles parked at any man-camps in the Williston area (there may have some minor exceptions). The man-camp on the Alexander bypass appeared closed (hard to say) but "rooms" were advertised at $24.99/ night. My understanding is that man-camps in Williston were to be closed by September 1, 2016, but there was some question regarding compliance. In flux. Perhaps a local newspaper will provide updates.

It appear the El Rancho Motel is closed pending a sale (again, I do not know for sure). The co-located restaurant remains open.

For some notes and photos of the hotel boom in North Dakota at the height of the boom:

• photos of several hotels, motels in Williston

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The Market

Mid-day trading: Dow 30 down 162 points. Oil up the past two days on OPEC's announcement: up to $47.69 (which is no better than $40 for Saudi Arabia).