Mexico Agrees To Unilateral Freeze Ahead Of OPEC's September Meeting -- September 9, 2016

Updates

September 14, 2016: Pemex discovers six (6) new crude oil deposits in the Gulf of Mexico. Not much really said. 

Original Post

 

Wow, this is amazing. From Platts, data points (numbers rounded):

• Mexico's 2017 budget: will slash their state oil company's budget  
• the Pemex budget will be slashed by $5 billion to $21 billion
• production in 2017 will go to lowest production since its peak in 2004 -- that's more than a decade ago
• 2004 production: 3.4 million bopd
• 2017, projected production: 1.93 million bopd
• Pemex's crude oil production has now fallen for 11 straight years
• reforms/targets set in 2013 / 2014 -- now seem distant (and unlikely)
• one quote: Mexico is "killing the goose that lays the golden eggs"

This is not good news for the people of Mexico and not good news for Texas ranchers trying to stop the influx of Mexican immigrants across their land. Not only is Mexico exporting less oil, they are getting a much smaller return on their product: a double whammy. My hunch: by 2018, we will see huge fiscal problems for Mexico.

Venezuela is close to becoming a net importer of oil (if it isn't already). Iran's crude oil production growth has stagnated, we were told today. And now Mexico. What reason would Saudi Arabia and Russia have to agree to a freeze now? All their competitors, including the US, are doing it unilaterally.

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DAPL And Standing Rock

Let's Just Kiss and Say Goodbye, The Manhattans