Job Watch; News Not Getting Any Better -- August 4, 2016

No matter how they spin it, this is still the worst recovery in modern history; officially the worse recovery in 49 years. And now the weekly jobs report. There are two stories today. First, first time unemployment claims rise again. And second, US layoffs rose for the second consecutive month in July.

First, the second story. From CNBC with the look of concerned anxiety on the faces of the talking heads playing in the background, it is announced that US laysoff rise to 45,346 in July as cuts in energy sector spike.

Second, the first time unemployment claims. From Bloomberg, this headline (watch the spin): "jobless claims signal firings in US remain historically low." I can't make this stuff up. Hillary Clinton's press officer must be writing these stories. This is the lede, I kid you not:

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to a level that still underscores health in the labor market.

A limited number of layoffs indicates companies are retaining employees at a time when skilled and experienced workers are in greater demand. Further improvement in the job market will be critical in helping drive consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, during the second half of the year.

That comes on top of the previous week when unemployment claims (first time claims) surged -- up 14,000.
Data points in the most recent report:

• rose by 3,000 to 269,000
• survey called for the number to actually drop to 265,000
• four-week moving average also increased to 260,250
• previous report: the four-week moving average had falled to 256,600, the second-lowest level since 1973

Wasn't 1973 the year of the OPEC embargo? I forget. Oh, yes, I just checked. It began in October, 1973.

For 74 consecutive weeks, claims have been below the 300,000 level that economists say is typically consistent with an improving job market. That’s the longest stretch since 1973.

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Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:

	8/4/2016	08/04/2015	08/04/2014	08/04/2013	08/04/2012
Active Rigs	34	75	192	179	206

RBN Energy: western Canadian gas producers still looking for a way out.

Natural gas producers in Western Canada are still struggling to find new markets to replace those they’ve lost to Marcellus/Utica producers in recent years. It hasn’t been easy, and they certainly haven’t been helped by the high cost of transporting gas to Ontario and the Upper Midwest, by the failure of LNG export projects in British Columbia to advance, or by the collapse of oil prices that has slowed growth in the oil sands sector (a huge consumer of gas).

Despite the gloom, though, there are at least some rays of hope. TransCanada is considering big cuts in pipeline tolls in exchange for commitments to long-term deals. It’s also possible that at least one BC LNG export project may become a reality by the early 2020s. And some gas producers in the Montney shale region in the Canadian Rockies are focusing on areas where they also can produce vast amounts of condensate for use as diluent in the nearby oil sands region.

Today, we provide an update on the ongoing (and often frustrating) efforts to expand gas production in BC and Alberta.