Idle Chatter, Observations Regarding The US Economy -- Consumer Spending; The NYSE -- August 30, 2016

Updates

Later, 4:46 p.m. Central Time: consumer spending links? See first comment.
 

Original Post

 

With regard to the "market" and investing, there are two interesting stories right now (and by noon, the stories will be history and we will have moved on to something else, perhaps a new Trump/Hillary poll, or another story about Barbara Streisand threatening to move to Ireland if The Donald wins). By the way, it was interesting to note that the Clinton camp was able to persuade the very camera-shy and reclusive Ms Streisand to appear on late night television.  It is also interesting that Trump's lead in the LA Times/USC poll jumped significantly after that appearance. But I digress.

Now what was I talking about? Oh, yes, with regard to the "market" and investing, there are two interesting stories right now.

This is the first:

Early morning trading on Wall Street: for a market that is looking for a reason to go down ("correct") and for all the talk about a "bubble" in the stock market, it is interesting to note that on a day when the market is down, there are 124 issues on the NYSE that hit a new high (many on opening; and, are now pulling back a bit); and only one issue that is trading at new lows -- ITT -- and that's due to force majeure.

This is the second story, from The Wall Street Journal:  U.S. consumer spending rose in July. Domestic consumption could continue to drive economic growth over the second half.

Personal consumption, which measures how much Americans spent on everything from hotel stays to hamburgers, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in July from a month earlier. Incomes rose 0.4%, a pickup from growth in the prior two months.

I assume the folks who derive these figures use very complicated formulas but at the end of the day, it's my understanding that they simply measure "dollars spent."

Some random data points or observations that might lead to further discussion at a Williston coffee shop, or not:

• seasonally adjusted, Americans drive about the same amount of miles day in / day out. Sure, the amount of driving is affected by a gazillion factors, but at the end of the day, the law of "large numbers" tends to win out. If one accepts that assumption, then US spending on gasoline will be considerably less over the course of one month if the average price is $2.00/gallon vs $4.00 gallon
• cheap gasoline does not only affect cost of driving, but everything that involves transportation, including food
• without question, the sector that shows the most increase in prices is health care, particularly ObamaCare premiums; that cannot be disputed; so, if Americans are spending more on health care (and getting about the same amount) or spending more on ObamaCare premiums (and still paying out-of-pocket until the annual $6,000 deductible is met), US consumer spending will increase.

Maybe "they" don't count insurance premiums as part of consumer spending. Maybe they don't count money spent on health care as "consumer spending." Shoot, just the 500% increase in EpiPens will increase the amount US consumers spend, all things being equal. I don't know. Maybe there's a big spreadsheet somewhere that shows us what is included in "consumer spending."

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The Music Page

For reasons I won't go into, I happened to catch two "specials" on our local PBS station last night -- when the "specials" are this good, one knows that PBS is having one of its monthly two-week fundraising events. At least these events seem to come once a month, and when they do, they seem to last two weeks. And another truism: one can be guaranteed an opportunity to binge on the British comedies during those two weeks. But again I digress.

The two specials last night: a 90-minute documentary on The Mamas and the Papas, and a similar documentary on the Beach Boys or California surf music -- I don't know how long it lasted; I fell asleep sometime during the show.

But they were both incredible.

Only one or two comments. The Mamas and Papas were around for only 2.5 years. It is incredible how much they packed into those two years. In addition, it is unlikely -- except for Cass Elliot -- that any of them had any significant voice lessons prior to (or maybe even during) their 2.5 years of incredible hits. And despite that, their voices and their singing was ... for lack of a better word, incredible. Let's see -- I've used "incredible" at least four times in the past few sentences to describe The Mamas and The Papas.

The other comment: Michelle Phillips may have been the most physically abused individual -- and perhaps emotionally abused as a result of the physical abuse -- of the group, and here she is, still alive, having outlived the other three, and at least for the documentary, as beautiful as ever, and as positive as ever about her life with the group.

Okay, enough of that.

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Crocodiles And Alligators

A Note For The Granddaughter Who Wants To Become A Marine Biologist

From Crocodiles and Alligators, consulting editor, Charles A. Ross. No copyright date or publishing date provided. DDS: 597.98 CRO.

Archosauria: ruling reptiles; dominated animal communities on the continents during the Mesozoic Age (245- 65 million years ago); included:

• dinosaurs
• pterosaurs (flying reptiles, not dinosaurs)
• crocodilians
• thecodontians (included a variety of primitive archosaurs, some of which may have been the precursors of later groups such as crocodilians

Archosaurs: one of the most successful groups of land-dwelling vertebrates ever known; living crocodiles are the only living representatives of this group

Crocodiles more closely related to birds than to lizards (despite the largely superficial resemblance).

The next closest relatives of crocodilians among living vertebrates: lepidosaurs, or scaly lizards

• tuatara of New Zealand
• lizards
• snakes

Archosaurs: two temporal fenestrae behind each eye socket: delimited by horizontal bony arches; one opening is high upon the skull roof; the other is down on the side of the cheek.

Two theories for these two temporal fenestrae:

• an area where jaw muscles could "reside" during jaw closure
• flying buttress analogy: lighter and stronger

These two fenestrae -- or openings -- behind each eye socket: distinguishing feature of the diapsid or "two-arched" reptiles.

• lizards: the lower bony arch is always incomplete
• snakes: both the lower and upper arches are absent, leaving the entire cheek open
• crocodilians: retain the typical diapsid configuration
• birds: the large eye and the considerably expanded braincase have encroached on the cheek region and consequently the bony bars between the eye socket and the two openings have largely disappeared

By comparison: mammals, including hamans

• only one opening for the jaw muscles behind the eye socket (synapsid condition)

By comparison: turtles

• a solid roofed cheek; no openings (anapsid condition)

Classification systems

• phenetic: based on structural similarity
• cladistic: based exclusively on how long ago two organisms shared a common ancestry
• eclectic: draws selectively on information from both cladistic and phenetic approaches

Using the eclectic system: crocodilians aligned with the lizards; and that is the classification used by these scientists contributing to this book

Nile Crocodile

• Kingdom: Animalia
• Phylum: Chordata
• Subphylum: Vertebrata
• Class: Reptilia
• Order: Crocodylia
• Suborder: Eusuchia (modern crocodilians)
• Family: Crocodylidae (alligators, crocodiles, and relatives)
• Subfamily: Crocodylinae (crocodylines)
• Genus: Crocodylus (true crocodile)
• Species: Crocodylus niloticus (Nile Crocodile)

Geological Time

• Phanerozoic eon: appearance of most multicellular life forms 
• phanerozoic: means visible life
• three eras
• Paleozoic (old life) - 590 245 mya -- Age of Reptiles or Age of Dinosaurs; first appearance of crocodilians in the fossil record
• Mesozoic - first appearance of of the majority of groups that populate existing environments: birds, mammals, advanced bony fishes, most living insects, angiosperms (flowering plants); also marks the arrival and reign of dinosaurs and the rise to dominance of both major lineages of diapsid reptiles and is therefore aptly referred to as "The Age of Reptiles" 
• three periods 
• Triassic
• Jurassic
• Cretaceous 
• Cenozoic -- new life -- from 65 mya; mammals, birds, insects, and flowering plants  quickly rise to dominance

Crocodiles that could be assigned to present crocodiles and alligators: first definitely known from the Campanian stage of the Upper Cretaceous, some 80 million years ago. 

Evolutionary notes: too much to record but some things that caught my eye.

• Crocodilians may have descended from some group of thecodontians, the stem group of all archosaurian reptiles and birds -- based on peculiar ankle joint, described in 1963 -- affects their walking.

• Crocodilians are unusual among vertebrates in that they employ two completely different main methods of moving on land: sprawling gait, dragging belly on land; and, the "high walk." The sprawling gait for short distances; the "high walk" similar to mammalian pattern of limb motion.

• Several groups of crocodilian relatives. One group, with the crocodilian type of ankle joint, the rauisuchians, were the dominant carnivores on land during much of the Triassic period until they were replaced by the dinosaurs.

• In order to express the evolutionary connection between the crocodilians and the various thecodontians with the crocodilian type of ankle joint, the discoverer of the ankle joint, Barnard Krebs (Swiss, 1963) assigned both, in 1974, to a new group called Suchia.

• Suchia and -suchus: a frequent ending of scientific names for various living and extinct crocodilians; derived from the Greed word souchos, which in turn is an adaptation of the Egyptian name of a crocodile-headed god who was worshipped in some regions of ancient Egypt.

• Another group of thecodontians had a different type of ankle which superficially resembled the crocodilian ankle. That group may have been part of the lineage leading to dinosaurs and perhaps also to the pterosaurs. This variation would have allowed them to run on their two back legs.

Crocodilian distribution:

• Crocodiles cannot survive in cold weather; their distribution is limited to warm climates; must be at least 50 - 59 degrees F)

• Alligators not as restricted (as lost as 39 degrees F); optimal temperature for the American Alligator: 90 - 95 degrees F); but below that optimum, alligators can sustain activity at temperatures as low as 53 degrees.

The big question: why were crocodilians unaffected by whatever wiped out the dinosaurs and the flying reptiles at the end of the Cretaceous period, 65 million years ago. That event(s) resulted in a global mass extinction on land and in the sea.

• Crocodiles no longer found in Europe.

• Evolution spanned 200 million years: it began in the Late Triassic, when dinosaurs were beginning to dominate continental ecosystems and the first mammals were diversifying.

Crocodilians and continental drift:

• crocodilians appeared at the end of the Triassic
• Pangaea: end of the Triassic
• subsequent evolution affected by breakup of Pangaea
• breakup of Pangaea began in the Jurassic
• Cretaceous crocodilians of Africa and South America: well documented to be very similar, but then diverged
• Tethys Sea: during Pangaea, 200 mya -- separates Gondwana (southern Pangaea: North America, South America, Africa, Australia) from northern and eastern Pangaea (Lauraia -- norther North America, eastern Europe, Asia)
• Tethys Sea: 100 mya, after the breakup of Pangaea -- the Tethys Sea was essentially the Indian Ocean separating Africa's Arabian peninsula from southeast Asia; subcontinent of India not well defined at this time.

World distribution of crocodilians

• Crocodiles and caiman: western hemisphere
• Crocodiles and mugger: Africa
• Crocodiles, mugger, gharial: Asia and Australia
• Alligators: only southeast North America; and very, very small area in China
• Nile Crocodile: all of Africa south and east of the Sahara; all the way to South Africa
• American Crocodile: not in the US; only in Central American and northern South America
• Caiman throughout Brazil, but no crocodiles in Brazil

Cardiac

• Unlike other living reptiles, the crocodilian has four chambers in the heart as mammals. A septum completely divides the ventricle into right and left; likewise the atrium.

• The crocodile seems to have two major arteries coming from the left ventricle, unlike the single aorta in mammals. One of the two major arteries supplies head and front legs; both of the two major arteries feed the rest of the body, although different parts in and below the abdomen

• The atria appear to be huge; larger than the ventricles (based on the drawings in this book).

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Cladistics -- Phylogenetic Relationships

Reptiles and Amphibians

General Editor: Chris Mattison

c. 2008

DDS: 597.903 FIR 

Amphibians: frogs, salamanders, caecilians

At one time, the differences between frogs and salamanders were considered so great that it was believed that each had descended from different orders of Paleozoic tetrapods. The possibility that all of the common features (glands; skin as a respiratory organ; the structure of the eye; unusual pedicellate tooth structure) could have evolved independently is so unlikely, it has been argued, that it is more reasonable to assume a monophyletic origin. Therefore, most biologists place the three living groups in one subclass: Lissamphibia. 

Phylum: Chordata
Subphylum: Vertebrata

Vertebrata: the first bifurcation was when jawed fish broke off from jawless fish.
Jawless fish were a dead end.
Gnathostomata continued.

Gnathostomata separated into cartilaginous and bony.
Cartilaginous were a dead end.
Bony fish continued.

Osteichthyes (bony fish) developed into ray-finned fish (actinopterygii) and lobe-finned (sarcopterygii).

The sacropterygii made a huge leap: lobe-fish; flesh fins/limbs; made the "leap" to land though they were predominantly water animals.
The sarcopterygii broke into two groups: the lung fish (and coelacanths) and the tetrapods
The lung fish survive, but are a dead end; the coelacanth (a living fossil) survives but critically endangered

The tetrapods were the huge new important group.

The tetrapods broke into two groups: the Lissamphibia (Amphibia) and the Amniota
Lissamphibia (Amphibia) -- 15 minutes of fame; incredibly important as a bridge from water to land, but ultimately a dead end
Amniota -- cracked the "dry land" problem in two different ways

Amniota went two different routes: mammals and reptilia

Mammals will be discussed later.

Reptilia went two different routes: turtle and Sauria.
Turtles are still around, but another dead-end.

Sauria broke into two groups, both of which are still around: the archosauria and the lepidosauria

The Archosauria broke into two groups: the Crocodylia and the Aves
Both are still around, but the crocodylia pretty much quit evolving
Aves continued to evolve.

The Lepidosauria broke into two groups: the tuatara and the Squamata.
The tuatara are another dead end, but the Squamata continued to evolve.

The squamata broke into two groups: the iguania and the snakes and other lizards
The iguania are a dead end, although they are still around.
The snakes and lizards continue to evolve and remain with us today.

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The T-Shirt

The cladogram at this site is pretty good.