The Big Energy Picture: 2015 Data Starting To Trickle Out -- July 25, 2016

Note: this is for my own use. The data comes from EIA but there will be typographical and factual errors in my data. This just helps me get the "big picture" with regard to the energy sector in the US. Do not quote me on any of this. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

The US Energy Flow for 2015 at this link: http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/flow/total_energy.pdf.

Domestic production and imports (in quadrillion BTUs):

• the US produces: 88.63
• the US imports: 23.61
• Sub-total: 112.24

US exports and misc: (in quadrillion BTUs): 14.59

Total US consumption (in quadrillion BTUs): 97.65


US production + imports - exports (in quadrillion BTUs):

• coal: 15.73 (in 2014: 17.92)
• natural gas: 28.32 (in 2014: 27.51)
• petroleum: 35.38 (in 2014: 34.78)
• nuclear: 8.34 (in 2014: 8.33)
• renewable: 9.68 (in 2014: 9.63)

Elsewhere (twitter, EIA) renewable is broken down (again, in quadrillion BTUs):

• hydroelectric: 25% of 9.68 = 2.42
• wood: 21% of 9.68 = 2.03
• biofuels: 22% of 9.68 = 2.13
• biomass waste: 5% of 9.68 = 0.48
• wind: 19% of 9.68 = 1.84
• solar: 6% of 9.68 = 0.58
• geothermal: 2% of 9.68 = 0.19

1.84 / 97.65 = 1.9% (wind) [in 2014: 1.77%]
0.58 / 97.65 = 0.6% (solar) [in 2014: 0.4%]

Note: in the US, a quadrillion is a thousand-trillion.

Comments:
I think over time, one will see a "drag" on the energy sector as more and more solar / wind is added to the mix. "Drag" will be seen in the following:

• increased utility expenses for all consumers
• increased non-dispatchable energy requiring increased / redundant / otherwise unnecessary natural gas plants

I still think natural gas will be the natural winner as more and more non-dispatchable energy is added to the mix.

The Midcontinent fossil fuel industry is going to thrive in a non-dispatchable energy environment. Think about it. All things being equal, electricity supply/demand has been fairly stable / flat over the past few years, I assume. Coal and natural gas "growth" might have flat-lined over the past decade -- I don't know -- but with the addition of non-dispatchable energy, albeit very, very, very little, the US will require additional natural gas plants for "back-up." That "back-up" is not going to come from nuclear power or coal. In fact, hydroelectricity could also be impacted negatively. I don't think there is any energy less expensive than existing hydroelectric power but with political mandates, some states like California will displace hydroelectricity for solar energy (see RBN Energy).