Average 2016 Crude Oil Price Well Below What OPEC Nations Need To Meet National Budgets -- July 6, 2016

OPEC countries need oil to average"around $100/bbl" for the year to meet their national budgets. Some countries may need slightly less than $100-oil; many need significantly more. Saudi Arabia is said to require an annual average of about $100/bbl.

The prices for oil this year are noted below. At the end of each month, I update the price for the most recent month -- just a rough number of what seemed to be the "average" price of WTI for that month.

There is nothing new here or unexpected. I started this little exercise at the beginning of the year, coming up with different "scenarios" just to see how the year plays out. At the beginning of the year I put an estimate in for each month (that's why one sees $45-oil for July) under five different scenarios. The scenario below is the one that now seems most likely.

For the first six months the number is the approximate price for WTI that I posted at the end of the indicated month. The last six months of the year, obviously, are estimates based on what's being forecast by different agencies, different bloggers.

I haven't seen anything to suggest we will get much above $50/bbl for the rest of the year, though some optimistically say we should see $60-oil this autumn.

But right now, the average for the 2016 calendar year looks like it is going to come in at about $45, way below what Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC need to maintain their budgets.

January	35
February	35
March	35
April	45
May	47
June	50
July	45
August	50
September	50
October	50
November	50
December	50
2016 Average	45