Thursday, June 16, 2016 -- A Delay In Blogging Today

Updates

June 16, 2016: The headline in today's Los Angeles Times on the surge in unemployment claims -- unemployment figures show healthy job market despite rise in new claims. I can't make this stuff up. Incredible spin. 

The number of people seeking U.S. unemployment benefits rose last week, but to a low level that indicates employers are still cutting relatively few jobs. 

Weekly applications rose by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 277,000, the highest in four weeks. The less-volatile four-week average declined slightly to 269,250.

The figures are a reassuring sign that the job market may be healthier than other recent data suggest. Businesses cut back sharply on hiring in April and May. Employers have added an average of only 116,000 jobs in the last three months, half of last year's average of 230,000. 

Again, this article and all the rest do not mention how horrendous a "116,000" number truly is. Economic growth requires at least 200,000 new jobs each month. The articles do not mention that these numbers are so bad, Janet Yellen has pretty much telegraphed she won't be raising rates for some time unless political pressure is such that she has no choice.
 

Original Post

 

I can see already that there is going to be too much to blog about today and we are going to be out and about much of the day. So, I'm here, but it might be awhile before I start blogging and even longer before I catch up.

I should do what these guys do: write the article ahead of time and fill in the data later. Here's the headline: application for US unemployment aid rise to still-low level.

Sounds like something from Dr Seuss or from the Oval Office.

So, I thought, "to a still-low level." Can't be all that bad. I thought it might be oh, maybe, a rise of 1,000, or 2,000, or maybe even as much as 4,000. But, wow, the number actually surges: 13,000.

And look at this lede:

The number of people seeking U.S. unemployment benefits rose last week, but to a low level that indicates employers are still cutting relatively few jobs.

The analysis:

The figures are a reassuring sign that the job market may be healthier than other recent data suggests. Businesses cut back sharply on hiring in April and May. Employers have added an average of only 116,000 jobs in the past three months, half last year's average of 230,000.

This paragraph confirms the article was written before the numbers came out:

And fewer applications are also consistent with steady hiring over time, according to research by Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase. Applications tend to decline when workers who lose their jobs can more quickly find a new one.
There was one interesting data point missing, a data point that almost always shows up in these articles: what was forecast. 

From Fox Business: jobless claims rise more than expected.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast initial claims rising to 270,000 in the latest week.
So, much worse than expected.

Four-week average: "slipped" 250 to 269,250. Well, we know where the four-week average will be trending next week, don't we.