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Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Exxon's Global Energy Demand Forecast Through 2040 -- For The Archives -- June 28, 2016

For the archives: global energy demand forecast.

This graphic is in line with about almost everything else I see.


Observations:
  • energy: all the above -- everything is represented here
  • the graph goes out to 2040
  • this is global energy demand
  • coal: the amount actually increased significantly from 2000 to 2015, and really doesn't decrease all that much (if it does, its almost imperceptible)
  • natural gas: the huge winner -- compare 2040 with 2015 (or 2000, for that matter)
  • oil: even oil shows a huge increase
  • nuclear: increases some (China? India? where?)
  • other renewables (wind/solar): although there's a relative increase, it looks like about 25 quadrillion BTUs/700 quadrillion BTUs = 3.57%. I.N.C.O.N.S.E.Q.U.E.N.T.I.A.L. A rounding error at best.
By the way:
  • 2015: 575 quadrillion BTUs
  • 2040: 700 quadrillion BTUs
  • (700 - 575) / 575 =  22% increase in global energy demand over the next 25 years.
Note: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here. But this seems to be an open-book test when it comes to looking where to invest for the long term. 

There is no question that solar has some niches (wind has none, absolutely zero) but as a real global player, unreliable, expensive, non-dispatchable energy is irrelevant.

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