War On Wind, Solar -- May 20, 2016

Weekly crude oil supply: when I first started blogging back in 2007, the 30-second sound bite -- the US had 22 days of crude oil inventory. That number held for quite some time. Silently, completely off the radar scope, the new "normal" for US crude oil inventory is 33 days of crude oil. At some point, this will be reflected in global crude oil statistics, everything from exports to utilization to cheap energy, etc., etc., etc. 34 - 22 = 12 / 22 = a 55% increase in this commodity. Meanwhile US imports are maintaining historical levels, and occasionally surpass previous levels.

Weekly Crude Oil Supply Estimates: days of gasoline inventory, US, source:

• 5/13/16: 33.6 days of inventory
• 1/31/14: 23.3 days  
• 1/24/14: 22.9 days
• 1/17/14: 22.2 days
• 1/10/14: 21.8 days
• 1/03/14: 22.2 days
• 12/27/13: 22.3 days

To the best of my knowledge, "we" have never been blessed with so much oil:

RBN Energy has another post in its series on natural gas today. My first thought after reading this -- without massive subsidies and/or incredible mandates/restrictions imposed by federal and state governments, the almost seemingly inexhaustible supply of natural gas in the US will simply overwhelm solar / wind over the long term.

In India: 123.8 degrees Fahrenheit, somewhere in India; previous record, 123.08 degrees. According to the linked article, the heat will get worse over the next few days. The Indians are going to be using a lot air conditioners over the next few days. Let's see if their solar energy projects can keep up.

Active rigs:

	5/20/2016	05/20/2015	05/20/2014	05/20/2013	05/20/2012
Active Rigs	26	80	188	189	209

RBN Energy: utilities seek to expand gas reserve.

Which brings us to whether chicken farming is like long-term gas hedges. Thanks to tougher environmental rules, low natural gas prices and other factors, electric utilities aren’t just building more gas-fired generating capacity, they’re running their gas-fired units a lot more than they used to. Utilities also are retiring many of their older, smaller coal-fired units—the ones that, while not very efficient, could be relied on in the heat of summer and cold of winter. All that has left utilities more dependent than ever on gas-fired generation and, with that, more exposed than ever to the risk of natural gas price spikes. Many utilities have regularly engaged in short-term hedging, mostly with the aim of reducing gas-price volatility. More recently, though, electric utilities have been considering—and actually making—investments in gas reserves/production assets or making long-term commitments to buy gas, figuring that 1) natural gas prices are at or near their lowest prices in years; 2) many oil and gas producers, squeezed by low prices for their commodities, are looking for deals, and 3) gas-reserve investments by utilities might be eligible for regulator-approved rates of return (typically about 10%/year), just like the rates of return utilities are permitted to earn on their investments in power plants and transmission lines.

We first blogged about this topic almost two years ago in which we discussed Florida Power & Light’s (FPL) proposal to invest up to a total of $191 million in 38 PetroQuest Energy gas production wells in the Woodford Shale in southeastern Oklahoma.

Tesla. For MBA students, I think the most interesting story to follow for the next two years will be the Tesla ramp-up story. If Tesla even comes close to meeting its self-imposed deadline, this will truly be the story of the century. As much as I think this whole story is a scam, if MuskMelon can succeed, it will prove that American ingenuity and productivity has not died, as some have suggested. Remember, he says Tesla will begin delivering the Model 3 in late 2017: 100,000 in 2017; 400,000 in 2018, two years earlier than its original target and a 10-fold increase over the 50,000 vehicles it made in 2015. This would seem to be a bit worrisome:

One complication is that Tesla has not finalized the Model 3 design and specifications, said automaking consultants and supply executives who asked not to be identified because Tesla prohibits them from disclosing contract details.

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War On Obesity

War on obesity. Two years ago I might have been "upset" about this, but no longer. I think it's great. The emphasis on sugar vs fat may be misplaced, but who am I to argue. Whatever.

Two months ago, in March, I began a serious weight reduction program. It turned out to be one of the biggest challenges I've undertaken in quite some time. While in the USAF I had to "maintain weight" but it was easier: younger folks tend to burn more calories, all things being equal; the AF had a mandated fitness program; our efficiency reports required comments regarding fitness and weight; and, I had women friends around the world.

Okay, three out of four of those were accurate.

Yahoo!News is reporting:

Nutrition facts labels on food packages are getting a long-awaited makeover, with calories listed in bigger, bolder type and a new line for added sugars.

And serving sizes will be updated to make them more realistic — so a small bag of chips doesn't count as two or three servings, for example.

I now pay very close attention to calorie counts. While standing in line at Starbucks I look at the calories. I won't eat spur-of-the-moment, impulse-buying snack that has more than 100 calories, and even then, probably not. Not if it's impulse buying.

When I started the severe weight reduction program, I had planned on posting the diary when I reached certain milestones, but I have decided not to do that. I'm not sure why I changed my mind but for now, no diary update.

I'm not even sure I want to provide any details. Everyone goes about this differently and I'm not sure my comments will add anything to the discussion. But I will say this: if one wants to be serious about weight reduction, one must approach it the same way one would approach putting one's dog on a diet. 

By the way, back to that small bag of chips counting as two or three servings. It will be interesting to see how many servings are in a can of soup. And I wonder if the same can of soup is worth two servings in the US and 10 servings in Bangladesh.

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No Comment

Business Insider is reporting:

On Wednesday, LinkedIn said that a security breach resulted in over 100 million user passwords being compromised.

Now the company's taking action. Anyone with a LinkedIn account who hasn't changed their password since 2012 — when the breach happened — is receiving an email asking them to change their password.

My wife, who doesn't have a LinkedIn account, received the e-mail. Now, how does that happen. Did LinkedIn go back to the hacker and get the list of hacked e-mail accounts. There is only person with a LinkedIn account who has e-mailed her. That would be me. I have not received an e-mail from LinkedIn unless it ended up in my Spam folder and I deleted it unknowingly.

I guess it's time to change my password. If possible, I will close my LinkedIn account. I don't want to be LinkedIn any more anyway.