Update On Number Of Wells In North Dakota -- May 30, 2016

From last week's oil conference in Bismarck, a reader sent a photo of a slide updating wells in the Bakken.
 
Total wells (active, inactive, permitted, increased density approved): 30,974

• Active: 13,024
• Bakken/Three Forks: 10,970
• conventional: 2,054
• Inactive: 1,523
• +$40 for 90 days
• as of 4/11/16: 45 days to go
• Waiting to be completed: 920
• +$50 for 90 days
• NYMEX November, 2016
• Permitted: 1,988
• +$60 for 90 days
• NYMEX $58 max
• Increased density approved: 13,519

Estimated ultimate number of wells: 55,000 - 65,000.

60,000 - 15,000 = 45,000 wells to be drilled/completed

At 1,500 wells/year = 30 years of drilling.

In 1Q16, 281 wells were reported. 281 x 4 = about 1,200 wells for the year. For 2Q16, it looks about the same. 45,000/1,200 = almost 40 years. It looks like the Saudis helped North Dakota stretch out the manufacturing stage for the Bakken. In the short term that caused incalculable harm to some operators, to many roughnecks, and to the financial coffers of the state, but in the long run, one wonders if this was not good for the state and particularly the cities in western North Dakota. I don't know. Just rambling.

Maybe that would be a great poll. Was the Saudi Surge good, bad, indifferent for the state of North Dakota?

When I first started blogging, some folks thought I was nuts to suggest that drilling would continue through 2030. Now it is 2016 and adding 40 years to 2016, one gets us out to 2056. And, of course, the last well drilled will continue to produce for another 30 years. That gets us out to about where the original estimates for the Bakken were: 2100. A nice round number.

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Sea Levels Actually Decreasing On The East Coast

Watts Up With That is reporting:

Since December 2009, the sea levels have declined in both Washington DC and The Battery NY.

In Washington, DC, the decline has been -3.3 mm/year; and, in The Battery, NY, the decline has been more than three times greater, at a rate of -10.7 mm/year.

Well, that's good news. Ten millimeters/year = one centimeter/year. The length of an average popsicle stick is 4.5 inches or 11.43 centimeters. I place my popsicle sticks 2.5  inches into the sand, leaving 2.0 inches showing. At this rate, my popsicle sticks will last longer than expected. I thought by now I would have to invest in longer sticks. 

Perhaps not.

Whatever.

It was after this issue came out that I never subscribed to National Geographic again. "Journalism" at its worse.