Tesla's Vice President For Production To Take Leave Of Absence [Perhaps To Spend More Time With His Family]; Tesla Vice President Of Manufacting Also Expected To Depart [Perhaps To Spend More Time With His Family, Also] -- May 4, 2016

Updates

May 18, 2016: will raise $2 billion in new shares. Dilution: about 7%. 

May 10, 2016: Investopedia on Tesla --

• Tesla in reverse
• in past 30 days, TSLA down almost 20%
• Wall Street not buying MuskMelon's hype
• last week, MuskMelon said Tesla would produce 500,000 cars in 2018, two years ahead of prior forecast
• raised the stakes higher by promising to double the volume in 2020
• even if he could meet his production target, it would cost more money than he has; "a cash-hungry, start-up unicorn" -- Barclays
• 1Q16: net debt of almost $2 billion; operating cash flow of negative $500 million (numbers rounded)
• no plan how MuskMelon plans to raise needed cash

May 5, 2016: WSJ is reporting that Tesla's losses widen on lower-than-expected deliveries. Now we know why the vice president for manufacturing and the vice president for production are both departing. Yesterday it was a bit unclear. 

Original Post

Tesla beats expectations: loses 57 cents/share vs expected loss of 58 cents/share. It will be interesting to see the details, particularly the rate of cash burn. Tesla's loss for the day is made back immediately after results were released. During the day, TSLA was down about $10; after market close/after earnings announced, it was up about $7; later up as much as slightly more than $10.  [Later: up as much as $12 after hours to $234.00.]

Still, it remains to be seen how Tesla deals with increasing production demands in the coming years. While Tesla blew away expectations with at least 325,000 reservations for the Model 3, its ability to produce the vehicles in 2017 and 2018 is still unclear.

Separately, Tesla in April announced a worse-than-expected 14,820 vehicle deliveries for the first quarter. -- maybe that's why vice-presidents for manufacturing and production are leaving.

For those who have forgotten, from 4Q15:

TSLA (10 cents): in 3Q15, the forecast was for a loss of 50 cents; AP story here; but the loss at 58 cents was much bigger than expected; deliveries were better than expected and TSLA surges 7% in after-hours trading; this time around, 4Q15, the company is expected to post earnings of 10 cents, and reports February 9. Whether it misses or beats that forecast, my hunch is that the shares move up or down significantly;

Yesterday I reported:

Link here (March, 2016 --> April, 2016 sales):

• Tesla Model S: 3,900 --> 800 (the company delivered 850 in January, 2016)
• Tesla Model X: 1,850 --> 850 (the company delivered 270 in January, 2016)
• Chevrolet Volt: 1,865 -->1,983
• Nissan Leaf: 1,246 --> 787 (that's more than a stall)
• VW e-Golf: 86 --> 326 (recovering)
• Chevrolet Spark: 252 --> 419 (gaining traction)
• Cadillac ELR: 104 --> 95 (in a rut)
• BMW i8: 89 --> 130 (whatever) 

Tesla reports 325,000 preorders for the Model 3. On an annualized basis, based on April sales, annualized sales for:

• Tesla Model S: 9,600; on March sales: 46,800
• Tesla Model X: 10,200; on March sales: 22,200

To meet the demands for pre-orders in the first six months after the new Model 3 is released, Tesla will have to ramp up from 20,000 autos/year to 54,000 Tesla Model 3 deliveries/month to satisfy current demand (in the first six months after the first Model 3 is released).

Look again at how much Tesla has to be able to ramp up to meet customer expectations. And now, see below in "today's update" we get word that Tesla's vice president of production is going to take a LEAVE OF ABSENCE. 

Something tells me things are not going well in paradise. 

Today's update:

Tesla earnings will be out later today. Right now, on a "down" day for the market, TSLA is down 4% -- down about $10 on a $220/share comapny. CNBC is reporting:

Analysts expect Tesla to report a loss of 58 cents per share on $1.6 billion in revenue, according to a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate. Its loss is forecast to be larger than the one posted in the prior-year period.

The electric automaker's shares dropped 4 percent Wednesday as it confirmed Greg Reichow, its vice president of production, will take a leave of absence after it finds a successor. Tesla's vice president of manufacturing, Josh Ensign, is also expected to depart.