Rigs At 29 Yesterday; 27 This Morning; Now Ticks Down To 26 -- May 3, 2016; Gasoline Consumption Hit An-All Time "Seasonal" Record -- EIA

Active rigs:

	5/3/2016	05/03/2015	05/03/2014	05/03/2013	05/03/2012
Active Rigs	26	86	185	192	209

Gasoline demand: I assume this has been posted before, but if so, I forget and/or I missed it. Whatever. John Kemp noted it today in his tweets: US GASOLINE CONSUMPTION hit a seasonal record 9.2 million b/d in February according to EIA monthly data released on Friday, April 29, 2016.

I was curious. Was that really accurate? No, I wasn't doubting EIA or John Kemp, I just wanted to see for myself. And what I saw was huge: the "record set" in February appears to be an absolute new record for February. Go back to any February, as far back as you want to go, and I don't think there is any February in which gasoline demand was as high as it was two months ago (and that takes into account an extra February day this year).

On the other hand although we have had record-breaking months "year-over-year" in the past twelve months, none of them have hit an all-time record. For example, a year-over-year record was set in December, 2015, but that number was lower than the demand set in four Decembers earlier in the century (2004, 005, 2006, and 2007).

And note that automakers are struggling selling "cars" but doing very, very well selling SUVs and pick-up trucks. There could be a connection.

To the best of my knowledge, "we've" never hit a daily average of 10 million bopd gasoline demand in this country, though we have come close (in the data above, 9.64 million bopd in July, 2007). It looks like the increase in gasoline demand year-over-year in this country could approach 6% this summer based on a reading of the tea leaves. If so, for August, 2016, 1.06 x 293,479,000 = 311,087,740 / 31 = 10,035,088 bopd -- just slightly over the 10 million bopd. So we will see. 

*******************************

April EV Sales Numbers Starting To Be Reported

Link here (March, 2016 --> April, 2016 sales):

• Tesla Model S: 3,900 --> 800 (the company delivered 850 in January, 2016)
• Tesla Model X: 1,850 --> 850 (the company delivered 270 in January, 2016)
• Chevrolet Volt: 1,865 -->1,983
• Nissan Leaf: 1,246 --> 787 (that's more than a stall)
• VW e-Golf: 86 --> 326 (recovering)
• Chevrolet Spark: 252 --> 419 (gaining traction)
• Cadillac ELR: 104 --> 95 (in a rut)
• BMW i8: 89 --> 130 (whatever) 

Tesla reports 325,000 preorders for the Model 3. On an annualized basis, based on April sales, annualized sales for:

• Tesla Model S: 9,600; on March sales: 46,800
• Tesla Model X: 10,200; on March sales: 22,200

To meet the demands for pre-orders in the first six months after the new Model 3 is released, Tesla will have to ramp up from 20,000 autos/year to 54,000 Tesla Model 3 deliveries/month to satisfy current demand (in the first six months after the first Model 3 is released).

See Tesla's 1Q16 earnings here. Both the vice president for production and the vice president for manufacturing are leaving Tesla.