How Deep Is Your Love? Pretty Deep For Ford -- May 39, 2016; Only GM And Volkswagen Likely To Show Sales Losses YOY

Updates

May 4, 2016: Tesla earnings will be out later today. Right now, on a "down" day for the market, TSLA is down 4% -- down about $10 on a $220/share comapny. CNBC is reporting:

Analysts expect Tesla to report a loss of 58 cents per share on $1.6 billion in revenue, according to a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate. Its loss is forecast to be larger than the one posted in the prior-year period.

The electric automaker's shares dropped 4 percent Wednesday as it confirmed Greg Reichow, its vice president of production, will take a leave of absence after it finds a successor. Tesla's vice president of manufacturing, Josh Ensign, is also expected to depart.

Original Post 

Before we report the winners, let's get this out of the way. From Green Car Reports: Nissan Leaf EV sales in April 2016 stagnate.

• Chevy Volt: 1,983, topping March sales of 1,865; best 4-month total ever (that would be like "since 2012")
• Nissan Leaf: four-month total of 3,718 is far from its best ever -- that was 7,272 back in 2013
• Audi A3 e-tron: 321 -- yes, 321, and that's considered "impressive"
• Cadillac ELR: here we go ... well, maybe not -- 95 units;

Okay, back to reality.

Ford. Another "best" month. Sales up 4% overall.

• yoy: vehicle sales up 4% for April
• yoy: retail sales up 3% for April
• Ford-brand SUVs best-ever April sales; Explorer up 22%; SUV sales up almost 8%
• Ford F-Series best April since 2005; truck sales up almost 15%;
• Ford Transit up 32%; best April van sales since 1978 -- 1978? wow. I was not even aware Ford has been selling vans since 1978 -- that's like a century ago, isn't it? In "dog years" it's 266 years ago
• Lincoln sales up 20%; Lincoln SUV sales up 53%; MKX sales almost double
• car sales struggling; fell 12%

Fiat Chrysler: best April sales in a decade. Gains 5.6%.

• Jeep, Ram brands up almost 18%, 12% respectively
• seven vehicles set records in the month of April, including Jeep Renegade and Jeep Compass, both with best months ever
• 73rd consecutive month of yoy monthly sales gains

Nissan: yet to report, but Kelley Blue Book expects Nissan to be the big winner in April

Honda: yet to report, Edmunds expects Honda to report double-digit sales from a year ago
 
General Motors: slight decline -- 3.5% decline in sales in April.

Volkswagen: yet to report; along with GM likely to be only two auto manufacturers to show sales losses yoy.

US EV sales at this link: (March, 2016 --> April, 2016 sales):

• Tesla Model S: 3,900 --> 800 (the company delivered 850 in January, 2016)
• Tesla Model X: 1,850 --> 850 (the company delivered 270 in January, 2016)
• Chevrolet Volt: 1,865 -->1,983
• Nissan Leaf: 1,246 --> 787 (that's more than a stall)
• VW e-Golf: 86 --> 326 (recovering)
• Chevrolet Spark: 252 --> 419 (gaining traction)
• Cadillac ELR: 104 --> 95 (in a rut)
• BMW i8: 89 --> 130 (whatever) 

Tesla reports 325,000 preorders for the Model 3. On an annualized basis, based on April sales, annualized sales for:

• Tesla Model S: 9,600; on March sales: 46,800
• Tesla Model X: 10,200; on March sales: 22,200

To meet the demands for pre-orders in the first six months after the new Model 3 is released, Tesla will have to ramp up from 20,000 autos/year to 54,000 Tesla Model 3 deliveries/month to satisfy current demand (in the first six months after the first Model 3 is release).

**************************

#1 Song in January, 1978

How Deep Is Your Love, the Bee Gees
Where was I in '78? Travis AFB, Suisun, California. Our first daughter was born at Travis, early 1978. Hard to believe all the water under the bridge, as they say.

It's hard to say when "disco summer" was -- 1977, 1978, 1979? In 1978, the Gibbs had four #1 songs:

• "How Deep Is Your Love"
• "Stayin' Alive"
• "Night Fever"
• "Shadow Dancing" -- Andy Gibb