BBC's Analysis Of The Iran-Saudi Arabia Conflict -- May 20, 2016

One of the best posts I had on the Mideast was the post on "end times for the caliphate." John Kemp has now alerted me to another nice analysis of what is going on in the Mideast regarding the Iran-Saudi Arabia conflict. It is not as good as the caliphate story, but it's a keeper for those trying to figure out what's going on "over there."

Some data points regarding the proxy wars between Iran and Saudi Arabia across the Mideast, in Lebanon, and from Syria to Yemen. This analysis focuses on Lebanon.

Hezbollah:

• the Shia militant group, backed by Iran, allied with Syrian al-Assad's forces
• anti-Saud
• origin, 1980's to fight Israel's occupation of south Lebanon 
• remains dedicated to "liberating Palestine" -- though now deeply embroiled in the war in Syria
• "Death to Israel" being replaced by "Death to Saud"?

Takfiri: a specific term to describe Muslims who believe society has reverted to a state of non-belief, but in today's Middle East it has also become short hand for Sunni jihadist groups.

Saudi Arabia, to counter Iran's influence in Syria: long backed a variety of politicians and institutions in Lebanon, including the Hariris --

• former Prime Minister Saad Hariri
• his father Rafik, a former prime minister who built his fortune in Saudi Arabia; killed in massive truck bomb, in 2005
• the killing of Rafik blamed on Syria at the time
• later, a Hezbollah commander was charged with the killing
• hindsight: the killing now looks like the moment when Iran's allies began their push against Saudi influence in Lebanon -- but the kingdom was slow to recognize this, as Hezbollah chipped away at Lebanon's state institutions

Saudi Arabia convened a League meeting to protest a massive mob attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran

• Lebanon's foreign minister, an ally of Hezbollah, abstained
• the snub infuriated Saudi Arabia; Saudi halted a $3 billion package of aid to the Lebanese army
• Saudi funds which had been pouring into Lebanon, including the media, dwindled
• Analysis:
• by leaving/abandoning Lebanon, will the void be filled by Hezbollah (Syria?)

Saudi's checkbook diplomacy: no strategic thinking; and now pummeled by deteriorating oil prices

• Saudi now realizes Hezbollah is no longer just a Lebanese faction; it is a "regional power"

Lebanese themselves may see stability now that Saudi Arabia is leaving

• in the words of one Lebanese businessman:

"We helped build Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf, now Iran is the new El Dorado," said the businessman.

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For Iran and Valerie? This seems to be working out just fine.