Update On Ivanpah Solar Plant -- March 19, 2016

I've blogged about Ivanpah Solar Power Facility many times.

I track Ivanpah here.  Just to be clear: Ivanpah is a money-laundering scheme disguised as a science project.

There seems to be an old story about this solar plant making the rounds now. PJ Media is reporting the story with the headline that the plant is producing only one-half what it promised, and has a number of other problems also. In fact, this story has been around since at least November, 2014.

I'm not sure exactly what is new in the article, except perhaps two things which I will touch on farther/further down.

First, some background from wiki:

The Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System is a concentrated solar thermal plant in the California Mojave Desert, 40 miles southwest of Las Vegas, with a gross capacity of 392 megawatts.

The facility formally opened on February 13, 2014, and it is currently the world's largest solar thermal power station.

The project was developed by BrightSource Energy and Bechtel.

It cost $2.2 billion; the largest investor in the project is NRG Energy, a power generating company based in Princeton, New Jersey, that has contributed $300 million. Google has contributed $168 million; the U.S. government provided a $1.6 billion loan guarantee.

In 2010, the project was scaled back from the original 440 MW design, to avoid building on the habitat of the desert tortoise.

In November 2014, Associated Press reported that the plant was producing only "about half of its expected annual output".

The California Energy Commission issued a statement blaming this on "clouds, jet contrails and weather".

However, in the first quarter of 2015, Ivanpah generation was up 170 percent over the same quarter in 2014 – 108 gigawatt-hours compared to 40 GWh, according to the Energy Information Administration.

With regard to solar efficiency, wiki goes on:

The plant requires burning natural gas each morning to get the plant started.

The Wall Street Journal reported: "Instead of ramping up the plant each day before sunrise by burning one hour’s worth of natural gas to generate steam, Ivanpah needs more than four times that much."

On August 27, 2014, the State of California approved Ivanpah to increase its annual natural gas consumption from 328 million cubic feet of natural gas, as previously approved, to 525 million cubic feet.

In 2014, the plant burned 867,740 million BTU of natural gas emitting 46,084 metric tons of carbon dioxide, which is nearly twice the pollution threshold at which power plants and factories in California are required to participate in the state’s cap and trade program to reduce carbon emissions.

If that gas had been used in a conventional fossil fuel plant, it would have generated nearly 124,000 MWh of electrical energy. That is enough to power the annual needs of 20,660 Southern California homes.

Ivanpah used that gas plus solar energy to produce 524,000 MWh of electrical energy (more than four times that of the referenced conventional plant), all while operating at well below its expected output.

2015 is showing even higher production numbers, with Q1 increases of 170% over the same time period in 2014.

In 2015 the natural gas consumption had decreased to 564,814 million BTU, while the total energy output had increased to 652,300 MWh.

There continues to be a "verbal war" with regard to this solar plant. Wiki can be edited by anyone and one can see the "back and forth" with regard to this plant.

Now the linked article today from PJ Media:

A solar power plant in California, built with a $1.6 billion taxpayer guaranteed loan, is in danger of being shut down entirely because it is producing only a fraction of the energy that the owners promised. The plant only generated 45 percent of expected power in 2014 and only 68 percent in 2015, according to government data.

What's more, it is producing electricity at a cost of $200 per megawatt hour - six times the cost of electricity produced by a natural gas fired plant.

These disappointing results at high prices could be the solar plant’s undoing. California Energy Commission regulators hoped the plant would help the state get 33 percent of its electricity from green sources, but now the plant could be shut down for not meeting its production promises.

The most interesting figure is the $200/MWH -- one can learn about LCOE here. 

I don't know if this is simply re-cycled old news or something new, with perhaps one exception, the 2015 figure of "68%." The author doesn't provide any dates or any new "ultimatums" from the regulator regarding a potential shutdown.

My hunch is it's re-cycled news.

Having said that, going from 45% to almost 70% in one year is not bad; someone is paying attention.

California to shut down the world's largest solar farm won't be done "lightly."

From an October 27, 2015, blog posting: