Snapshot In Time -- March 30, 2016; Also, Jobs For March 2016

Updates

March 30, 2016: the comments at this article on "new jobs" are pretty much in line with my thoughts over the past several years.  Comments have in common:

• government statistics on jobs/unemployment are bogus, massaged
• if the "job situation" is go good, why is the Fed hesitant to raise rates?
• one permanent job lost; replaced with two part-time employees (ObamaCare effect)  

Original Post

 

Apparently the market likes what the Fed is doing: nothing.

Early morning trading has the market up strongly; the Dow is up almost 130 points.

Crude oil is up about 2.4%, around $40.

Reuters reports that US private employers added 200,000 jobs in March, above economists' expectations.  Remember: these are the "magic numbers" with regard to US jobs:

The Magic Numbers

First time claims, unemployment benefits: 400,000 (> 400,000: economic stagnation)

New jobs: 200,000 (< 200,000 new jobs: economic stagnation)

Economists estimate the labor market needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, though estimates vary -- Reuters. 

I will stick with 200,000 (the "magic number" prior to the Obama administration) -- it's a nicer, "rounder" number to remember.

I love the spin: economists had forecast a gain of 194,000, with estimates ranging from 150,000 to 220,000. I would argue the number (200,000) came in right on expectations. For Reuters to say in the very first line "above economists' expectations" suggests a bit of editorial spin for the Obama administration. Just saying.

More from the linked article:

The ADP figures come ahead of the U.S. Labor Department's more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which includes both public and private-sector employment.

Economists polled by Reuters are looking for U.S. private payroll employment to have grown by 197,000 jobs in March, down from 230,000 the month before. Total non-farm employment is expected to be 205,000.

At 197,000, this would be below the magic number that was used prior to the Obama administration.