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Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Saudi Arabia's Official Reserve Assets Fall Another $9 Billion In February, 2016

John Kemp, perhaps the best of the readily accessible energy analysts (with no hidden agendas as far as I can tell), has a number of tweets today with graphics depicting how severely Saudi Arabia has been impacted by the low price of oil. There are probably at least six such tweets with graphics. This one may be the best:


Another depiction, in a different format, cumulative change, has data only through January, 2015, at this post: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2016/03/one-new-permit-two-more-ducs-march-3.html.

You can see that prior to October, 2014, before Saudi opened the spigots, the +/- fluctuated around "0" suggesting that cash flow from continuing operations were meeting Saudi Arabia government's budgetary demands. However, by December, 2015, the crunch was beginning, with a negative cash flow of around $8 billion for the month.

The upside down "U" shape of the curve between February, 2015, and December, 2015, has me perplexed. I have some ideas, but not many.  It appears the upside down "U" may be starting again.

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