Gasoline Demand -- On Glide Path To Set US Record This Summer? -- March 30, 2016

I still get a kick out of the Gartman post from yesterday in which Gartman suggested that the greatest "threat" to Big Oil was Uber. There is no question that Uber is the poster child -- or at least one of the poster children -- for disruptive technology. I completely missed how big, how disruptive this concept would become. But it has become huge. It is said that Uber has accounted for one billion miles of automobile driving at this point.

I can see where Gartman is coming from, I suppose. If people start sharing rides, less gasoline will be used. So maybe he's correct. But his statement that millennials don't see the need for automobiles is insane. In fact, the millennials are using Uber automobiles.

One wonders if the biggest casualty because of Uber might not be light rail. Uber is most efficient in the very areas where light rail is also most efficient: high-density urban settings. But Uber to light rail is like CBR to pipelines. Uber and CBR are both flexible and scalable. Light rail is anything but flexible or scalable.

Folks using Uber will help cut gasoline consumption, I suppose, if one argues that the rider/passenger would have otherwise taken his own gasoline-consuming automobile. However, if the rider/passenger would have otherwise taken light rail, then the gasoline-consumption issue is a wash, but the light rail is impacted.

One could also argue that as Uber becomes more mainstream, there will be more Uber drivers, and even more incentive for folks to take Uber rather than light rail.

One wonders if there might also be a slight impact on road tolls, but that's quite a stretch.

I'm still looking for US gasoline demand to hit an all-time record this summer. I wouldn't bet the farm on 10 million bbls of gasoline/day but it could be close.

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Gasoline Demand -- A Record-Setting Summer?

From an earlier post:

Back on , January 19, 2015, I wrote:

Has the US ever gone over 9.5 million bpd gasoline demand? Yes, starting back in 2003 there were many periods in which demand for gasoline in the US fluctuated around 9.5 million bopd.

• fourth week in August, 2003: 9.668 bpd
• second week in August, 2004: 9.521 bpd
• third week in August, 2005: 9.471
• first week in August, 2006: 9.697
• third week in August, 2007: 9.762
• the last week of August, 2014: 9.480 million bpd

I am unaware of any weekly period in which gasoline demand went over 9.5 million bpd over the Memorial Day Weekend, but it certainly looks like we could do that later this spring. 

Wow, that was back on January 15, 2015, when I wrote that. How did we do? We won't know for another week, but we went over 9.7 million bopd in the most recent reporting week.

I think that's an all-time record for the fourth week in May; if not an all-time record for the fourth week in May, awfully close.

So, back in January, I predicted that we would go over 9.5 million bpd this past Memorial Day weekend which would be a record. We won't know for another week or so, but at 9,734,000 bbls / day last week, that came close to hitting an all-time record. I think the record is 9,762,000 bbls / day, set in the third week of August, 2007.

Note the chart below: gasoline consumption up 5.0% year-over year.

9,762,000 x 1.05 = 10,250,100 -- so, we'll see.