Random Look At Possible Halo Effect Between TFH And Middle Bakken Wells In The Truax Oil Field -- February 21, 2016

Take a look at the production profile of this well, #20518, drilled back in 2011, and then join me below the graphic for a discussion of this well. This well has been producing since September, 2011, but only production data since May, 2013, is shown. Look at the production jump in November and December, 2013 (a small jump) and the incredible jump in production in November, 2015.

To the best of my knowledge, nothing was done to this particular well to account for the jump in production in either time period. The discussion will continue below the production profile.

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NDIC File No: 20518     API No: 33-105-02152-00-00     CTB No: 120518
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 9/29/2011     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NESE 11-154-98      Latitude: 48.173327     Longitude: -103.238712
Current Operator: WHITING OIL AND GAS CORPORATION
Current Well Name: REIGER 9-11H
Elevation(s): 2350 KB   2328 GR   2332 GL     Total Depth: 19080     Field: TRUAX
Spud Date(s):  6/26/2011 
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11427-19080     Comp: 9/29/2011     Status: AL     Date: 4/9/2012     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 253028     Cum MCF Gas: 599337     Cum Water: 153164
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 10/9/2011     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1067     IP MCF: 2160     IP Water: 485

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	9216	9499	5974	20221	18564	1564
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	13109	13303	11148	28657	26622	1945
BAKKEN	10-2015	5	2115	1685	2949	3367	2502	852
BAKKEN	9-2015	18	1490	1728	947	6901	6688	159
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	2871	2854	1897	12393	11136	1164
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	3299	3379	2340	11888	11502	293
BAKKEN	6-2015	15	1612	1494	974	3908	3593	272
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	2644	2754	1583	9991	411	9489
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	2470	2468	1626	7547	3094	4365
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	3139	3276	2581	9448	9068	287
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	2439	2491	2175	8487	8129	274
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	3413	3492	2047	11272	7621	3558
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	3378	3221	1732	8435	6971	1371
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	3058	2922	2119	9556	9210	256
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	3633	3725	2829	12601	12508	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	3205	3056	2336	9242	8765	387
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	3700	3958	3096	10891	10738	60
BAKKEN	7-2014	30	3936	3822	2974	10248	10096	63
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	3578	3597	3038	10284	10006	188
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	4057	4255	3093	9845	8507	1245
BAKKEN	4-2014	29	3939	3859	2834	7560	6025	1449
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	4799	4889	3674	10546	8704	1749
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	3776	3766	3154	6670	4800	1787
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	4115	4013	3611	8078	1887	6099
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	6997	6928	7053	18766	0	18673
BAKKEN	11-2013	26	5637	5742	10183	13466	0	13392
BAKKEN	10-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2013	28	2679	2363	1692	8578	230	8266
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	3288	3356	1595	9336	3989	5254
BAKKEN	7-2013	31	3098	3173	2042	7353	7166	94
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	3056	3575	1252	8024	5947	1988
BAKKEN	5-2013	31	3543	2832	1575	9174	5879	3202

If nothing was done specifically to a well to increase its production, one must look at neighboring activity.

Here's the graphic of the area under discussion. To get oriented, the index well under discussion is #20518. Note #25512.

#25512 was fracked in October 16 - November 2, 2013:

• 25512, 2,154, Whiting, P Evitt 154-98-13-12-2-4H, 35 stages, 4.7 million lbs sand; t11/13; cum 182K 12/15; this will be important later: note this well was taken off-line for most of October and November, 2015. Hold that thought.

So, perhaps the slight increase in production of the index well in late 2013 can be attributed to the halo effect of drilling #25512. Neat, huh?

It gets better.

Now, look at the production profile of the index well again, noting the jump in production  from about 3,000 bbls of oil/month (July, 2015) to a dramatic jump to more than 13,000 bbls of oil/month (November, 2015).

Looking at the graphic above, there is no obvious reason. There are no horizontals near the index well that could explain this increase in production.

Look at the area in the lower left-hand corner where I noted a fair amount of activity. There is a rig on site, most of the sites are still permitted only (status: loc), and the others are confidential. But here's where the new rules on DUCs and the rules on confidentiality help us out.

It turns out that #31238 is the answer. This is so cool.

• 31238, conf, Whiting, Carscallen 31-14-3TFH, API 33-105-04047, fracked 9/22/15 - 10/5/15; 

Although #31238 is on the confidential list, some information was posted before the well was placed on the confidential list. The spacing unit for #31238 is .... get this ...  sections 2/11-154-98. That's right. Even though the well is on the confidential list, and even thought the horizontal is not yet shown on the GIS map server yet, the application for this well says the spacing unit is 2/11-154-98. This horizontal is going to go right "through" the index well horizontal. If you don't believe me, look at the plan:

But it gets even better --- not only will we frack #25512 next to your existing well, but we will frack #31238 that runs right through your existing well, and if you are patient, we will frack another well, paralleling #31238 (see diagram which I did not go through the effort to notate; the point is being made):

It looks like the two new wells running south-to-north are TFH wells.

If that's accurate (and it is), think about this. The index well is a middle Bakken well.

It appears #31238 which has already been fracked and probably accounts for the jump in production of the index well (#25512) is a TFH well. The target is the TFH, first bench, at 11,133 feet.

Let's look at the depth of the index well. This should be fun. According to one sundry form (the stimulation form) the vertical depth of the middle Bakken at this location was 11,112 feet. The total vertical depth was 11,147 feet. Maybe someone can provide better numbers but the vertical separation will be less than 40 feet, as far as I can tell (this is way beyond my comfort level; I could be way wrong on this, but various forms confirm this).

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I remember all those discussions early on (back in 2010, I suppose) about whether the middle Bakken and the Three Forks communicate, and later, all those discussions about whether there was such a thing as a halo effect between neighboring wells targeting the same formation. Later, there were discussions about the halo effect between neighboring wells targeting different formations.

I guess I will leave it at that. I think I've provided enough information to at least get started on all this.

Oh, I almost forgot. Remember this from above:

• 25512, 2,154, Whiting, P Evitt 154-98-13-12-2-4H, 35 stages, 4.7 million lbs sand; t11/13; cum 182K 12/15; this will be important later: note this well was taken off-line for most of October and November, 2015. Hold that thought.

#25512, practically out of the picture was taken off-line for most of October/November, 2015, probably because these new TFH wells were being fracked. That speaks volumes. By the way, was there any jump in production in this well back in December, 2015. I don't know. Let's check:

NDIC File No: 25512     API No: 33-105-03063-00-00     CTB No: 125512
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 11/6/2013     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SWSW 12-154-98        Latitude: 48.169929     Longitude: -103.232662
Current Operator: WHITING OIL AND GAS CORPORATION
Current Well Name: P EVITT 154-98-13-12-2-4H
Elevation(s): 2332 KB   2304 GR   2304 GL     Total Depth: 22300     Field: TRUAX
Spud Date(s):  6/2/2013
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11638-22177     Comp: 11/6/2013     Status: AL     Date: 6/25/2014     Spacing: 4SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 181771     Cum MCF Gas: 406998     Cum Water: 109043
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 11/9/2013     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 2154     IP MCF: 4432     IP Water: 1496

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	6442	6590	4874	12912	12239	580
BAKKEN	11-2015	12	1396	1278	2226	1532	1208	290
BAKKEN	10-2015	3	237	206	304	125	114	3
BAKKEN	9-2015	19	2286	2742	1514	4166	3947	165
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	4057	3788	3011	8286	7700	494
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	4077	4223	2451	8135	7852	191
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	4331	4236	3176	10257	9201	967

It's subtle. I think it's there, from 4,000 bbls to 6,500 bbls, but it will be short term, not amount to much, but it helps make up for the time the well had to be taken off line.

One last comment with regard to communication between the middle Bakken and the Three Forks. Look at the jump in water produced in the index well in November/December, 2015. That was most likely fracking water from the TFH well. I could be wrong, but ....

... the Saudis are looking at this very, very closely. I bet. 

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. I will see things that may not exist. I do not have formal training and no background in the oil and gas industry. This is for my use only to help me understand the Bakken. Don't quote me on any of this. If this information is important to you, go to the sources, the NDIC, and FracFocus.