Mideast On The Brink: Three New John Kemp Tweets -- February 22, 2016

Mideast on the brink is tracked here.

Tweeting now:

• NORTHERN THUNDER: Saudi Arabia plans military drill involving 150K troops and 300 aircraft with allies starting Friday
• Russian playbook is to use massive military manouevres to cloak mobilisation of forces for offensive operations
• Mass military manouevres will certainly ratchet up tension across the Middle East at the end of the week

One may want to take a look at this NewChina (xinhuanet.com) post:

Despite Saudi Arabia's official line that an upcoming massive military drill targets no third party or directed at any specific operation, analysts say that the primary aim of the maneuver is to tilt the balance in Syria and Yemen in its favor.

The drill, code-named "Ra'ad Al-Shamal" (Northern Thunder), is set to begin on Friday. The three-week event will bring together Gulf Arab countries as well as Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, Tunisia, Morocco, Mauritania, Djibouti, Comoros, Pakistan, Malaysia, Senegal, Chad, the Maldives and Mauritius.

The massive war games will involve some 150,000 troops, 300 aircraft, hundreds of tanks and other advanced weaponry, according to Saudi defense officials.

The Saudi state news agency said the drill would send a "a clear message" that the kingdom and its allies "stand united to confront all challenges and maintain peace and stability in the region."

Many regional observers and analysts believe that Saudi Arabia's decision to organize such massive war games is closely related to the situation in Syria and Yemen.

In Syria, government forces, backed by Russian airstrikes, have recently recaptured cities and towns in the north from Saudi-backed rebels. 

The only additional item of interest for me is whether the Saudis will fly their military aircraft after dark. 

For those who may be unaware: Russia and Saudi Arabia are long-time, historical rivals.

In addition, just as a reminder how bad things are going for the Saudis (who are no longer in control of their destiny), the Saudi oil minister will attend the annual IHS CERAWeek conference in Hoston this week. This is the first time he has attended this conference since 2009.

During his keynote on Tuesday at the annual IHS CERAWeek conference in Houston, Naimi will be addressing U.S. wildcatters and executives who are stuck in a zero sum game.

"OPEC, instead of cutting production, they increased production, and that's the predicament we're in right now," Bill Thomas, chief executive of EOG Resources Inc, one of the largest U.S. shale oil producers, told an industry conference last week, referring to 2015.

It will be Naimi's first public appearance in the United States since Saudi Arabia led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' shock decision in November 2014 to keep heavily pumping oil even though mounting oversupply was already sending prices into free-fall. 

Naimi has said this was not an attempt to target any specific countries or companies, merely an effort to protect the kingdom's market share against fast-growing, higher-cost producers. 

It just so happens that U.S. shale was the biggest new oil frontier in the world, with much higher costs than cheap Saudi crude that can be produced for a few dollars a barrel.

This all dovetails nicely with my posted commentary yesterday morning.