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Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Three (3) New Permits -- December 30, 2015

Active rigs:


12/30/201512/30/201412/30/201312/30/201212/30/2011
Active Rigs61170187187197

There are no wells coming off the confidential list Thursday because there was no June 31st, six months ago. Nor will there be a June 31st in 2016.

Third day in a row that no producing wells were reported as completed.

Three (3) new permits --
  • Operator: BR
  • Field: Corral Creek (Dunn)
  • Comments:
Enduro renewed a permit for a well in Renville County.

**************************
Not Unexpected

Katie Ledecky named "Person of the Year' -- 2015 Swammy Awards.
American records
  • 500 freestyle – 4:26.58 – 02/06/2015
  • 1000 freestyle – 8:59.65 – 12/13/2015
  • 1650 freestyle – 15:13.30 – 12/06/2014
World records
  • 800m freestyle – 8:07.39 – 08/08/2015
  • 1500m freestyle – 15:27.71 – 08/03/2015
  • 1500m freestyle – 15:25.48 – 08/04/2015
Firsts 
  • First woman under 9:00 in 1000 freestyle (beat Katie Hoff’s 9:10.77 from 2007)
  • First woman under 15:15 in 1650 freestyle
  • First woman under 8:10 in  800m freestyle (8:07.39)
  • First woman to win four individual freestyle golds at a World Championships or Olympic Games
********************************
Los Angeles: Crime Out Of Control

I was thinking about this earlier today, even before this story was published. All things being equal (and they aren't with the huge number of undocumented criminals and terrorists entering the country) one would expect crime to increase when mayors tell criminals, looters, demonstrators, etc., that "we will give you room to destroy." In addition, the police are now much more careful when responding to calls, giving the "bad guys" a bit more incentive to be "bad guys." On top of that, the headlines: felons released ahead of schedule due to overcrowding, other reasons.

Anyway the Los Angeles Times is reporting that crime in all categories has surged:
For the first time in more than a decade, all categories of crime rose across Los Angeles in 2015 as police struggled to get control of the problem, according to LAPD data.
Violent crime in L.A. climbed 19.9% and property crime increased 10.3% through Dec. 26 compared with the same period last year, according to the police data.
It marked the second year in a row that violent crime rose, but the first time since 2003 that both violent and property crime rose.
Fortunately they caught Bill Cosby. 

Legacy Fund Through December, 2015 -- December 30, 2015

Through December 2015, total deposits were $3,371,343,566.76.  Up about 3.3% from September 22, 2015; about $4,500 per North Dakota resident.

As a reminder, the bulk of the Legacy Fund comes from oil and gas tax revenue: thirty percent of total revenue derived from taxes on oil and gas production or extraction must be transferred by the State Treasurer to a special fund in the state treasury known as the Legacy Fund.

Let's assume the increase between December and September was all related to oil and gas tax revenue (not from other sources or from investments): the growth was $112,666,378. Thirty percent of what = $113 million? $338,337,471. From September 22, 2015, to "through December" is about two months. $338 million / 2 = about $170 million / month = about $2 billion / year.

State budgets as reported by wiki.

MinnesotaCBS, from January, 2014.

Link here for Legacy Fund numbers.

Previous post
  • As of September 22, 2015, total deposits were $3,258,677,188.91.
Somewhat related previous posts:

What Time Is It? Where Am I? -- December 30, 2015

Updates

December 30, 2015: perfect timing. See note below. I've been suggesting for some time Bakken operators need to start looking "west" rather than "east." Now this article, sent by a reader: bizjournal is reporting --
Companies are responding fast to the lifting of the U.S. ban on crude oil exports, and a first shipment is to leave Texas early in January.
Fred Felleman, a longtime opponent of crude oil shipments through Northwest ports and a newly elected Port of Seattle commissioner, said oil exports through Washington state could follow.
Key to his concern is the fact that Washington’s five refineries are just as able to load crude onto tankers from their terminals as they are to receive it. While the terminals were built to receive crude oil from Alaska, an increasing amount of crude is coming from the North Dakota Bakken oilfields by train. Some of that, Felleman said, could be exported.
The lifting of the 40-year ban on crude oil exports was included in the federal omnibus spending bill that passed earlier this month.
As proof that the export capacity exists in the Northwest, Felleman shared data gleaned from the Washington State Department of Ecology showing that Washington's five refineries, and one Tacoma terminal, shipped out 4 million barrels of crude to domestic customers during 2013, and about half that much last year.
Original Post
 
Things are so slow today, I'm not even going to post John Kemp's weekly energy tweets. If interested, go to Twitter and search John Kemp.

However, this is a pretty cool graphic over at EIA, celebrating fifteen accomplishments in 2015:
Which PADD is underserved? And that, folks, is spelled O-P-P-O-R-T-U-N-I-T-Y. Back on November 12, 2015, I suggested Bakken operators need to be looking west, not east.

At the EIA link above, slide 6 is also interesting as is slide 9

**************************************
The Apple Page

Say what you want about Apple, but this is quite incredible. Many, many story lines. For now, from Macrumors:
One of the Apple Watch features Apple often highlights is the device's precise timekeeping, which Apple says is within 50 milliseconds of the global time standard.

Apple Watch is so accurate that the hands of two Apple Watches placed next to one another will move in perfect unison.
This is achieved primarily through 15 Network Time Protocol (NTP) servers that Apple has around the world, kept inside of buildings with GPS antennas that connect to GPS satellites broadcasting time data from the U.S. Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C. The Observatory houses an ultra accurate atomic clock, which uses electronic transition frequency to measure time.

Apple's time servers communicate the time to iPhones across the world, and the iPhone in turn syncs with the Apple Watch via Bluetooth to provide the exact time.
Communicating a GPS signal from a server to an iPhone to an Apple Watch over Bluetooth has its own delays, which Apple corrects for via software. Apple's NTP servers make sure iPhones and Apple Watches keep time at "Stratum One" accuracy, within milliseconds of "Stratum Zero" devices.

Each Apple Watch has a temperature-controlled crystal oscillator inside to combat time drift that clocks and watches see. The oscillator also makes sure the Apple Watch remains warm enough to keep accurate time in very cold climates. Thanks to this hardware, the Apple Watch is even more accurate than the iPhone.
I know that's something I need in retirement: a timepiece accurate to within 50 milliseconds of  the global time standard. Actually, what I really need is something to remind me what day it is. Fortunately my computer desktop has the day-time stamp in the upper right-hand corner. 

I-98: Episode Seven -- #BeesLivesMatter

is
a syndicated television series spanning one decade, 2040 - 2049
Chronicles from The Bakken
Starring Samuel "Oilman" Goshwin & Liam Nikolai Gjorkstad
with occasional appearances by Archie McCool
initial funding from Apple Prairie Broadcasting  
and 
matching grant money from The Legacy Fund
and 
continuing support from viewers like you.


In the last episode, Liam and Sam were boarding a "shortened" Amtrak train at Rugby, thanks to an unscheduled stop okayed by Warren Buffett III, whose WBR&C railroad owned the track.

The only unanswered question was whether Thelma and Louise were on the Amtrak cars arriving in Rugby or had they been left behind in the derailed cars north of Fargo. Their whereabouts were never shown during the previous episode. It was during the ending credits that we learned that Thelma and Louise had indeed been stranded in Fargo. The show's writers were told to write the two young women out of the show because of a contract dispute. The back story was that the character who played Thelma was the great-granddaughter of Kaley Cuoco. She felt that she deserved the same pay as her great-grandmother, not realizing that I-98 never made any money, even after it went into syndication (it ranked below The Apprentice), and no one ever expected the series to make any money. Apple never streamed it.

Also, it was getting too difficult for folks in North Dakota to follow all the characters; it was time for some of the characters to move on.

Speaking of leaving, that's exactly what Sam and Liam did. It was a whistle-stop stop in Rugby and the two had to literally run to catch the train before it pulled out at 2 mph. Ever since the Amtrak disaster of 2015 in Philadelphia, Amtrak had placed limiters on the throttle, limiting acceleration to "walking speed." There was one exception: the California bullet train. No, the California bullet train was not yet in operation. In fact the only real track that had been laid was a bridge "somewhere in the valley," but to show progress, the California legislature continued to vote on parameters for the California bullet train.

Sam: "That was close."

Liam: "What do you mean, close?"

Sam: "The stop wasn't all that ... darn ... I forgot my cellphone ...."

Liam: "Nah, I grabbed it off the picnic table just as you started to run for the train ..."

Sam looked at his wrist. The Apple Watch, version AW5417, had synced with his iPhone with IOS71. He checked the CO2 PPM app: CO2 had remained steady at 385 for quite some time now. He recalled how CO2 PPM had peaked at 430 in 2020 and then after that entered into a steady decline.

Although there were many theories on the decline in atmospheric CO2, the most likely cause was the nation's switch to Bakken light crude oil, which was found to burn very cleanly, and the end of flaring in North Dakota about the same time.

NOAA felt the decline was due to inaccurate measurements. To remedy that, NOAA began in 2025 re-locating CO2 monitors. They moved them closer to the oil fields that had now stretched into South Dakota to remedy what they thought were inaccurate measurements.

Unfortunately, the relatively sudden drop in CO2 had decimated the flora, which in turn, was playing havoc with honey bees. Honey was now approaching $100 / 10 ounces. More expensive than gasoline, which again was hitting record lows.

Sam and Liam were mesmerized by the fields of wildflowers along the track. The fields had been planted back late in the Obama-era in an attempt to bring back the bees. Liam even recalled the button he had worn years ago.

"Sort of reminds me of "#BeesLivesMatter." [Not to be outdone, Presidential wannabee Jeb Bush had had his own button: "Bees!"]

The fields became more noticeable the closer they came to Minot. A lot of the old ICBM sites were now "Save the Bee" sites.

Most of the ICBM sites had been defunded by Congress when then-President Trump launched "one for the gipper" from site A-02, 9.9 mi SE of Karlsruhe ND, 48°00′04″N 100°27′15″W, to take out ISIS once and for all.

The exact location was classified but was inadvertently released during the Hillary Clinton campaign back in 2020 (yes, she ran once again, even as she neared 75 years of age). Hillary testified later she thought she was sending her telephone number to a friend, not knowing that 48°00′04″N 100°27′15″W was a geographic coordinate, not a telephone number. At the time she famously said, "what does it matter, anyway?"

But now many decommissioned ICBM sites had become havens for bees. Honey was now the #3 industry in North Dakota, as measured in revenue, behind oil and drones. Sweet dreams were made of these.



The train was slowing, pulling into Minot. It would not stop, but it would slow down, although for Amtrak, "slowing down" is an oxymoron, or worse, redundant.

This was a non-stop from Mall of America to Northstar Center in Williston which meant no scheduled stops between Minneapolis and Williston, but the train did slow for urban centers. Minot was considered an urban center, though its population now paled in comparison to that of Watford City. West Watford City extended to East Alexander.

As the train rounded the curve, Sam and Liam saw the new billboards going up asking for donations to help Minnesotans pay their intermittent energy utility bills. The state was now completely reliant on intermittent energy, and utility bills had surged, as expected. Even the heirs to the great Dayton estate were surprised to see how many wind farms it took to generate enough electricity to keep the lights on, not to mention, to recharge the Teslas. To conserve electricity, the state had asked Minnesotans to stop making Swedish meatballs during peak electricity demand.

Sam noted the irony, "It's kind of funny how things worked out. Ever since CO2 dropped, it got colder in Minnesota just as they were meeting their state-mandated wind farm initiatives. And now no one can afford it."

"Yes, I've heard they are thinking of widening the I-98."

Sam corrected him, "Well, not quite. They are only going to widen the west-bound I-98. Although I think it would be cheaper just to make all four lanes west-bound. The east-bound lanes haven't been used in years."

Overhead Sam noticed the fleet of drones. The train started to pick up speed, having cleared Minot. Sam and Liam were only about a day out from Williston, once Amtrak hit cruising speed, about 15 mph, "walking speed."

[The I-98 theme song crescendos as the camera pulls away with an overhead shot. In the distant, the Bakken is coming into view. Rolling credits.]

Flashback: July, 2007

Where are they now? I was curious about the status of wells permitted just before the Bakken took off. Below is the data for wells permitted in July, 2007.

Date
Permit
IP
Operator
Name
County
Field
Pool
Test Date
CUM
Date
Comments
2 Jul 07
16693
300
Petro-Hunt
USA 12B-2-1H
McKenzie
Charlson
Bakken
8/08
52
11/15

2 Jul 07
16694
348
Hess
HA-Mogen-152-95 0805H-1
McKenzie
Hawkeye
Bakken
12/07
270
11/15

2 Jul 07
16695
392
Hess
HA-Chapin-152-95-3229H-1
McKenzie
Blue Buttes
Bakken
11/07
269
11/15

2 Jul 07
16696
86
Petro-Hunt
Charlson Madison North Unit D234XH
McKenzie
Charlson
Madison
2/09
13
11/14

5 Jul 07
16697
10
Taqa/Primewest
Price 5H
Williams
Grenora
Madison
10/07
9
3/15

9 Jul 07
16698
369
CLR/BR
Oakdale 11-12H
Dunn
Jim Creek/Wildcat
Bakken
12/07
210
12/14

10 Jul 07
16699
277
CLR
Jones 11-33NH
Bowman
Cedar Hills
N Red River B
11/07
411
10/15
Still producing 4K/month
10 Jul 07
16700
220
CLR
Jones 11-33SH
Bowman
Cedar Hills
N Red River B
1/08
350
10/15
Still producing 4K/month
11 Jul 07
16701
192
XTO/Headington
Ramberg State 14X-15
Williams
Capa
Bakken
12/07
31
8/12

11 Jul 07
16702
228
CLR
Sophia 44-12Sh
Bowman
Cedar Hills
N Red River B
11/07
323
10/15
Still producing 3K/month
11 Jul 07
16703
144
CLR/BR
Kelly 24-2H
Dunn
Jim Creek/Wildcat
Bakken
1/08
144
10/15

12 Jul 07
16704
398
MRO
Darcy 34-32H
Dunn
Bailey/Wildcat
Bakken
12/07
220
10/15

13 Jul 07
16705
PNC
Zavanna
Lone Tree 1-19H
Williams
Stockyard Creek





13 Jul 07
16706
56
Hess
BLSU D-405
Williams
Beaver Lodge
Silurian
10/07
71
11/15

13 Jul 07
16707
0
BtA
20507 JV-P Peabody 1
Bottineau
Wildcat
Madison
7/07



16 Jul 07
16708
0
BTA
20507 JV-P Peabody B 1
Bottineau
Boundary Creek
Madison
7/07



16 Jul 07
16709
165
Hess
TI-Larson-157-95-2536H-1
Williams
Tioga
Bakken
5/08
80
11/15

17 Jul 07
16710
110
Hess
BL-Wallentinson-156-95-1003H-1
Williams
Beaver Lodge
Bakken
11/07
85
11/15

17 Jul 07
16711
297
Petro-Hunt
USA ID-4-1H
McKenzie
Charlson
Bakken
6/08
73
6/15

17 Jul 07
16712
17
Enduro/Hess
NSCU P-715AH
Bottineau
Newburg
Spearfish/Charles
10/07
45
11/15

18 Jul 07
16713
781
EOG
Austin 1-02H
Mountrail
Parshall/Wildcat
Bakken
12/07
552
10/15

18 Jul 07
16714
PNC
Anschutz/Ansbro
Charlie 1-23
Dunn
Willmen





18 Jul 07
16715
463
MRO
Kevin Buehner 11-18H
Dunn
Bailey/Wildcat
Bakken
10/07
317
10/15

18 Jul 07
16716
208
CLR
Pletan 1-18H
Dunn
Jim Creek/Wildcat
Bakken
2/08
261
10/15

19 Jul 07
16717
35
Enduro/Eagle Operating
East Flaxton Madison Unit 22
Burke
Flaxton
Madison
10/07
11
10/15

19 Jul 07
16718

Enduro/Eagle Operating
East Flaxton Madison Unit 21
Burke
Flaxton
Madison
11/07
WI


19 Jul 07
16719
251
CLR
Eagon 42-1 SH
Bowman
Cedar Hills
N Red River B
11/07
555
10/15
Still producing 5K/month
20 Jul 07
16720
223
Hess
EN-Hegland-155-94-0508H-1
Mountrail
Manitou
Bakken
1/09
94
11/15

20 Jul 07
16721
152
Hess
BL-Svor-156-95 0904H-1
Williams
Beaver Lodge
Bakken
3/08
98
11/15

23 Jul 07
16722
129
CLR
Spry 22-13Sh
Bowman
Cedar Hills
N Red River B
11/07
289
10/15
Still producing 3K/month
24 Jul 07
16723
140
Zavanna
Brushy Bill 1-19H
Williams
Stockyard Creek
Madison
9/07
50
1/15

24 Jul 07
16724
232
CLR
Spry 22-13NH
Bowman
Cedar Hills
N Red River B
10/07
412
10/15
Still producing 2K/month
24 Jul 07
16725
119
Petro-Hunt
Gordon Hall 29C-3-1H
Divide
Plumer/Wildcat
Bakken
11/07
19
10/15

26 Jul 07
16726
287
MRO
Benz 24-21H
Dunn
Bailey
Bakken
12/07
123
1/15

26 Jul 07
16727
1284
EOG
HG 1-14H
Mountrail
Parshall/Wildcat
Bakken
1/08
257
10/15

26 Jul 07
16728
323
EOG
Ruud 1-18H
Mountrail
Parshall/Wildcat
Bakken
10/10
56
10/15

27 Jul 07
16729
348
MRO
Vihon 44-8H
Dunn
Bailey/Wildcat
Bakken
11/07
270
10/15

27 Jul 07
16730
456
BR
Anderson Ranch 11-14H
McKenzie
Camel Butte
Bakken
12/07
137
11/15

27 Jul 07
16731
1323
Whiting
Locken 11-22H
Mountrail
Sanish
Bakken
12/07
626
10/15
Still producing 3K/month
31 Jul 07
16732
190
CLR
Kelling 1-4H/Kostenko 1-4H
Dunn
Jim Creek/Wildcat
Bakken
3/08
158
10/15

31 Jul 07
16733
0
EOG
Wayzetta 100-26
Mountrail
Parshall
Bakken
1/09


SWD