Sunday, July 26, 2015
Off The Net For Awhile -- It's Been An Incredible Day For Blogging -- July 26, 2015
I hope you enjoyed everything.
The New Way Of Drilling -- July 26, 2017
Be sure to check out the new way of drilling over at Carpe Diem.
Recorded at Muscle Shoals:
Atlantic Crossing, Rod Stewart
Atlantic Crossing refers to the year Rod Stewart left England and applied for US citizenship, just after the Brits raised the highest tax bracket to 83%. This is my wife's favorite album, the slow side only, which starts at 21:25. She first heard it when we were dating, not yet married.
From Forbes, the US is winning the oil war against Saudi Arabia:
Recorded at Muscle Shoals:
From Forbes, the US is winning the oil war against Saudi Arabia:
This last point is key. Today, spare capacity is less than 2 million barrels per day compared to the 1980’s oil glut when spare capacity was over 15 million barrels per day. This means that small changes in supply or demand can cause large changes in the price of oil. This leads to significant price volatility, which should only increase in the coming years.
The world is producing about 93 million bbl/day, but it is the cost to supply the last barrel needed to meet demand that determines the marginal cost of oil. So, the marginal cost of oil is above the average production cost of that first 92.9 million barrels. The marginal cost is used by oil companies to plan long-range capital budgets and field operations and bankers value assets during acquisitions or divestiture processes. It is also the best guide to what futures prices will be.
The cost of production of a barrel of oil is the most important component of determining the marginal cost. Individual geologic formations and well completion methods vary widely as to the ease of production, particularly for shale. Take, for example, the Bakken formation in North Dakota that has an overall break-even point of about $40/bbl. However, in McKenzie County, the break-even point is only $28/bbl, while Divide County had a break-even point of $85/bbl.I'm impressed that a writer for Forbes knows the difference between McKenzie County and Divide County.
My Tagline: "... The Bakken Never Fails To Amaze Me" -- Kathy Neset -- July 26, 2015; North Dakota Moving One Million Bbls Of Crude Oil Daily
Williston Wire headlines:
Employment triples in core oil counties.
Main Street construction in Williston continues; will be complete soon.
Construction begins on new Middle School in Dickinson.
I was putting together the post above while watching Muscle Shoals on DVD for the umpteenth time. I happened to be watching the turning point of Aretha Franklin's career while formatting the spot on the "Bakken Oil Play Here To Stay. "
I guess you can be a "Negative Nelly" or a "Debbie Downer" like The Dickinson Press or you can be an eternal optimist and just press on.
Helen Keller was from Muscle Shoals.
Ode To Billie Joe, Bobbie Gentry
Employment triples in core oil counties.
As pundits and public sentiment have declared the end of the Bakken Boom, the 2014 Annual Employment and Wages data released on June 2, 2015 reveal that employment has tripled or nearly so in the four core oil and gas producing counties since the beginning of the boom in 2006. Employment growth throughout western North Dakota was largely driven in four industry segments including Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction; Transportation and Warehousing; Construction; and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing. Professional and Technical Services as well as Accommodation and Food Services were two other industries that contributed significant growth during the period.Bakken oil play here to stay. Link here:
The petroleum industry is one of the largest basic-sector industries in North Dakota. The economic effects are felt statewide, making the industry one of the key forces of North Dakota’s economy. That was the universal message being given by the four featured speakers at last week’s seventh Annual Bakken Rocks CookFest event in Alexander.
The four featured speakers included Ron Ness with the North Dakota Petroleum Council, Kathy Neset with Neset Consulting, Justin Kringstad with the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, and Alison Ritter with the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources.
“What is happening here in North Dakota never fails to amaze me,” said Ness. “What we need to continue educating people on, and not just in McKenzie County, but the whole state and the entire country, is energy. We also need to show the significance and the ramifications of what a million barrels of oil a day means to us, our state, our country, and the world.”
In April, North Dakota surpassed one million barrels of daily oil production for the first time, putting the state in an exclusive group of only a few countries, states, provinces, and oilfields ever to do so. As of 2014, there were only 17 countries that could produce one million barrels per day or more. And only five states were producing at least one million bopd (barrels of oil per day) at one time including Alaska, California, Louisiana, North Dakota, and Texas.
But only Texas and North Dakota are currently producing more than one million barrels per day.
“One million barrels means two things,” said Ness. “First, it means that we have $50 million per day of economic activity. Second, the state gets to collect $11 million per day in oil and gas extraction and production taxes. And currently, there are only 19 countries in the world that produce that much. North Dakota is a top world producer, and North Dakota is providing energy security.”
One million barrels of oil production per day meets the needs of 75 percent of our nation’s average daily imports from Saudi Arabia, 13 percent of our nation’s total daily imports, three times the fuel needed by the entire U.S. military per day, and 11 times the fuel needed by the U.S. Navy per day.
The industry’s economic impact has grown by 750 percent since 2005, keeping pace with the 780 percent increase in oil production since that time. This represents a 303 percent growth in total jobs supported by the industry since 2005 and a 992 percent increase in direct jobs. Which means that in 2013, there were 55,137 direct jobs and 26,403 secondary jobs.Construction remains on track at new Williston High School; to open in time for 2016 - 2017 schoo lyear. That's not this school year, but the next school year.
Main Street construction in Williston continues; will be complete soon.
Construction begins on new Middle School in Dickinson.
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Perseverance
I was putting together the post above while watching Muscle Shoals on DVD for the umpteenth time. I happened to be watching the turning point of Aretha Franklin's career while formatting the spot on the "Bakken Oil Play Here To Stay. "
I guess you can be a "Negative Nelly" or a "Debbie Downer" like The Dickinson Press or you can be an eternal optimist and just press on.
Helen Keller was from Muscle Shoals.
SM Energy"s Hot Spot In Divide County, North Of Williston, North Dakota -- July 26, 2015
Connecting a couple of dots.
First dot: back on December 27, 2014, I posted a graphic of the "hot spots" in the Bakken. One area caught me by surprise, a hot spot in northern Divide County near the Canadian border. This is not where a "sweet spot" is expected to be found.
Second dot: operators have circled the wagons around the hot spots in McKenzie County, mostly around Watford City. With one exception: SM Energy continues to drill in Divide County and continues to add additional permits in that area.
So, I was curious. What does the NDIC GIS map show?
The graphic below matches exactly the "hot spot" in Divide County noted at the linked article above.
The rigs are here:
First dot: back on December 27, 2014, I posted a graphic of the "hot spots" in the Bakken. One area caught me by surprise, a hot spot in northern Divide County near the Canadian border. This is not where a "sweet spot" is expected to be found.
Second dot: operators have circled the wagons around the hot spots in McKenzie County, mostly around Watford City. With one exception: SM Energy continues to drill in Divide County and continues to add additional permits in that area.
So, I was curious. What does the NDIC GIS map show?
The graphic below matches exactly the "hot spot" in Divide County noted at the linked article above.
The rigs are here:
- 31244, ros, SM Energy, Dusty 14B-9HS, West Ambrose,
- 31073, ros, SM Energy, Inez 1B-16HN, West Ambrose,
- 30405, ros, SM Energy, Alvin 4B-15HS, West Ambrose,
- 31306, ros, SM Energy, Burtman 14B-23HS, Burg,
- 29648, 429, SM Energy, Beverly 2-16HN, West Ambrose, Three Forks, 17 stages, 2.5 million lbs, t4/15; cum 12K 5/15;
- 29647, 336, SM Energy, Fay 2-16HS, West Ambrose, Three Forks, 26 stages, 2.4 million lbs, t5/15; cum 11K 5/15;
- 29646, 429, SM Energy, Virgil 2B-16HN, West Ambrose, Bakken NOS, 30 stages, 2 million lbs, t4/15; cum 22K 5/15;
- 29645, 367, SM Energy, Riley 2B-16HS, West Ambrose, Bakken NOS, 17 stages, 2 million lbs, t4/15; cum 13K 51/5;
North Texas Officially Registers 100 Degrees For First Time This Summer -- July 26, 2015
The Hess EN-Freda and EN-Leo wells on two adjacent 5-wells pads have been updated. Interestingly, one of these high-production wells was taken off-line in May, 2015 and is now "inactive."
The thermometer at the DFW airport is the official thermometer for "North Texas." For the first time this summer, the DFW airport thermometer registered 100 degrees today. There are many places in north Texas -- including Ft Worth that have already recorded 100 degrees this summer -- but this is the first day North Texas has officially hit 100 degrees.
So, what's the big deal? It's about a month late. Normally the first 100-degree day in North Texas occurs on/about the last day of June. This is according to whatever news station I'm listening to at the moment.
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Texas Warming
Texas Warming
The thermometer at the DFW airport is the official thermometer for "North Texas." For the first time this summer, the DFW airport thermometer registered 100 degrees today. There are many places in north Texas -- including Ft Worth that have already recorded 100 degrees this summer -- but this is the first day North Texas has officially hit 100 degrees.
So, what's the big deal? It's about a month late. Normally the first 100-degree day in North Texas occurs on/about the last day of June. This is according to whatever news station I'm listening to at the moment.
Sunday Links -- July 26, 2015
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You Can Keep Your Doctor; You Just Can't Afford Her
The StarTribune is reporting that more and more folks are covered by ObamaCare. The problem: they can't afford making an appointment: the deductibles and co-pays are out of reach.
The number of Minnesotans struggling to pay their medical bills is rising sharply, despite an increase in the number of residents who have health insurance.
In the past year, Minnesota’s main hospital and clinic groups filed nearly 9,000 lawsuits against people with large or long-standing medical debts — a sharp increase since 2005, according to a Star Tribune analysis of court records.
ObamaCare is simply very expensive catastrophic health insurance with a few preventive care mandates like birth control pills thrown in to hide the ugly truth.Once a leading cause of personal bankruptcy in the United States, medical debt was widely expected to decline as more Americans got health insurance following federal health reform. Instead, shifts in the insurance market are pushing more people toward high-deductible policies that can require them to pay as much as $7,500 before any insurance benefits kick in.
This is the most startling statistic regarding ObamaCare coming out of Minnesota:
In Minnesota, the share of people with health insurance has climbed to 95 percent from 91 percent since 2013, as the federal Affordable Care Act has taken hold.
At what cost to go from 91% to 95%?
But insurers such as Blue Cross and Blue Shield and Medica have competed hard to hold down premiums as more people shopped for coverage; one way to do that is to offer more products with high deductibles and other forms of “co-insurance.”
Private sector employer health coverage almost universally imposes deductibles in Minnesota; 95 percent of plans have them.
That’s up from 52.8 percent in 2002 and significantly higher than the national average.
All predicted on this blog many, many years ago.
Again, for the umpteenth time, the editors of mainstream newspapers who are apologists for ObamaCare are simply not paying attention.
By the way, I can't find the quote now, but I vividly remember an apologist for ObamaCare -- was it Harry Reid -- complaining that for all the cost and all the problems, ObamaCare added 3% of all Americans to those having health insurance. Seems to be confirmed in Minnesota. What were they thinking?
By the way, I can't find the quote now, but I vividly remember an apologist for ObamaCare -- was it Harry Reid -- complaining that for all the cost and all the problems, ObamaCare added 3% of all Americans to those having health insurance. Seems to be confirmed in Minnesota. What were they thinking?
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Investing
This is such a great article, from The New York Times: US markets are an oasis for buy-and-hold investors.
This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
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One Of The Longest-Running Farces Of Our Modern World
From The (London) Telegraph:
Two events last week brought yet further twists to one of the longest-running farces of our modern world. One was the revelation by the European Space Agency that in 2013 and 2014, after years when the volume of Arctic ice had been diminishing, it increased again by as much as 33 per cent. The other was that Canadian scientists studying the effect of climate change on Arctic ice from an icebreaker had to suspend their research, when their vessel was called to the aid of other ships trapped in the thickest summer ice seen in Hudson Bay for 20 years. [Warmists blamed the thick ice on cold winds blowing over the Hudson Bay. LOL.]
For more than a decade now, the belief that, thanks to global warming, Arctic ice was vanishing has been for the warmists the ultimate poster-child for their cause (along with those “vanishing” polar bears). In 2007, with the aid of scientists such as Wieslaw Maslowski and Peter Wadhams, the BBC and others were telling us that the Arctic would be totally “ice free by 2013” (the Independent even cleared its front page to announce that the ice could all have disappeared within weeks).
But, alas, it just isn’t happening. In recent years there has been more polar ice in the world than at any time since satellite records began in 1979. In the very year they had forecast that the Arctic would be “ice free”, its thickness increased by a third. Polar bear numbers are rising, not falling. Temperatures in Greenland have shown no increase for decades.By the way it turns out, the polar bear numbers bounced back stronger than ever once hunting of these magnificent creatures was banned in key geographical locations around the world. It wasn't climate change that was killing off polar bears, it was bullets.
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Notes to the Granddaughters
The above note came from The (London) Telegraph. It brought back wonderful / bittersweet memories. Not the story on global warming, but seeing the words, The (London) Telegraph. Especially coming on a Sunday. Years ago, the USAF sent me to a remote air base in northern England, Yorkshire, to be more precise, near the Scottish border.
I was sent there for extended periods of time over the course of several years. It came at a point in my life when I was tired of traveling; I was miserable in the beginning. But over time, it became my second home; I couldn't wait to go back. I asked my boss to waive the regulation that limited one's temporary duty time in any give year (181 days/year).
One of the highlights -- and there were so many highlights of being in northern England for months at a time -- was waking up Sunday morning, and running downhill as fast as I could to the local mom-and-pop grocery store, about the size of my current apartment, to buy some fresh eggs, fresh bacon, fresh bread, and the two Sunday papers: The (London) Times and The (London) Telegraph. I raced back up hill and cooked a great breakfast, and then spent the rest of the week reading the two newspapers.
Seven Of Eleven Bakken Wells Coming Off Confidential List Go To SI/NC Or DRL Status -- July 26, 2015
Monday, July 27, 2015
As a reminder to newbies: the number of active rigs does not necessarily correlate to oil production any more (if it ever did). I don't track active rigs for the purpose of tracking production. I track active rigs to get an idea of the amount of activity in the Bakken.
- 28521, 562, EOG, Parshall 59-1608H, Parshall, ICO, t1/15; cum 46K 5/15;
- 29048, SI/NC, BR, Teton 2-1-3MTFH, Camel Butte, no production data,
- 30402, drl/NC, XTO, Lundin 14X-33E, Siverston, no production data,
- 27673, 1,040, Hess, EN-Leo E-154-94-2423H-5, Alkali Creek, t6/15; cum --
- 28183, drl, XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5B, Antelope, no production data,
- 28672, 335, EOG, Parshall 82-2827H, Parshall, t1/15; cum 41K 5/15;
- 28817, 818, Triangle, Simpson 151-102-5-8-1H, Elk, t3/15; cum 32K 5/15; choked back
- 29973, drl/NC, Enerplus, Bobbin 149-93-04D-03H TF, Mandaree, no production data,
- 26774, drl, Zavanna, Double Down 24-13 4TFH, East Fork, no production data,
- 29555, drl/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 4-36H1, Corral Creek, no production data,
- 29673, drl/CNC, XTO, Werre Trust 44X-34G, Bear Creek, no production data,
- 29801, dry, Ballard, Steen 44-20, wildcat, near the Glenburn/Chatfield oil fields, a Madison weel, about 20 miles NNE of Minot; no production data,
| 7/26/2015 | 07/26/2014 | 07/26/2012 | 07/26/2011 | 07/26/2010 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 73 | 193 | 207 | 180 | 137 |
As a reminder to newbies: the number of active rigs does not necessarily correlate to oil production any more (if it ever did). I don't track active rigs for the purpose of tracking production. I track active rigs to get an idea of the amount of activity in the Bakken.
A Burr Under My Saddle -- July 25, 2015
I don't think I will link any of the articles or previous posts on this issue. It's not worth the time. But The Dickinson Press article suggesting that the fracking revolution led to an increase in high school dropouts got me thinking. LOL. Thinking. That's a dangerous thought.
The premise of the article was that high-paying jobs in the oil patch, specifically fracking, lured high school males to drop out of high school.
I doubt fracking companies hired many (any?) males (or females, for that matter) under the age of 18. This is dangerous work and if they hired anyone under 18, they were 17 years old, going on 18.
The number of 18-year-olds in high school is a fraction -- nay, a drop in the bucket -- of all students from eighth grade on, when dropping out of school begins.
But let's say it did. Let's say fracking led to the national high school dropout rate rising.
Think about that.
Fracking existed in a handful of geographic areas, most of them far from high-density urban areas where all these 18-year-old future dropouts would have been going to school. New York state bans fracking. I doubt many New York inner city, urban-rapping, Nike-wearing, boombox-carrying, Apple ear-bud wearing youth were catching the Greyhound bus to find fracking jobs in Pennsylvania. If for no other reason: it's hard, hard work.
But if higher pay lures 18-year-olds to drop out of school, imagine what $15 / hour for flipping hamburgers is going to do. Wow, wow, wow. Ninth-graders will start dropping out of school like flies on manure to get a $15/hour job. The seniors who supplement their meager social security income by working as Wal-Mart greeters will now be competing with hip 18-year-olds who will be more than happy to glad-hand folks walking into Wal-Mart for $15 / hour. [Which is still less, by the way, than the $17 paid at the Wal-Mart in Williston.]
And even if they don't drop out of school, the after-school work at McDonald's puts an end to extracurricular activities (which can be just as important as school itself) and puts an end to doing one's homework. No, this is not good.
Fracking comes and goes. It's not particularly stable work. The oil and gas industry is a cyclic industry. But McDonalds and Wal-Mart will go on forever providing minimum wage jobs for those who drop out of middle school and high school.
Fracking is hard work, very, very hard work in very, very miserable locations, in many cases. By comparison, jobs at McDonald's and Wal-Mart are about as "cushy" as one can find. Air conditioned, free food, inside job, no day longer than eight hours, days off every three or four days.
The researchers who contend that fracking led to an increased drop out rate may have stumbled onto something, and the key word there is: stumbled.
August 16, 2015: this will be a good site to follow over time. One can set the parameters. It will be interesting to see the 10-year trend line for work force participation of 16-year-olds once the minimum wage starts to gain traction. One would except, all things being equal, work force participation would decrease once the minimum wage exceeds the "norm."
This is how a tenth grader breaks down $15/hour:
No cell phone expenses: remain on their parents' family plan.
Why stay in school? Living away from home and having $900/month free money.
Yes, I know taxes get taken out; social security gets taken out; Medicare gets taken out; there are other expenses, but none of this is seen by the tenth grader until he gets his first few paychecks and by that time he is out of school.
The premise of the article was that high-paying jobs in the oil patch, specifically fracking, lured high school males to drop out of high school.
I doubt fracking companies hired many (any?) males (or females, for that matter) under the age of 18. This is dangerous work and if they hired anyone under 18, they were 17 years old, going on 18.
The number of 18-year-olds in high school is a fraction -- nay, a drop in the bucket -- of all students from eighth grade on, when dropping out of school begins.
But let's say it did. Let's say fracking led to the national high school dropout rate rising.
Think about that.
Fracking existed in a handful of geographic areas, most of them far from high-density urban areas where all these 18-year-old future dropouts would have been going to school. New York state bans fracking. I doubt many New York inner city, urban-rapping, Nike-wearing, boombox-carrying, Apple ear-bud wearing youth were catching the Greyhound bus to find fracking jobs in Pennsylvania. If for no other reason: it's hard, hard work.
But if higher pay lures 18-year-olds to drop out of school, imagine what $15 / hour for flipping hamburgers is going to do. Wow, wow, wow. Ninth-graders will start dropping out of school like flies on manure to get a $15/hour job. The seniors who supplement their meager social security income by working as Wal-Mart greeters will now be competing with hip 18-year-olds who will be more than happy to glad-hand folks walking into Wal-Mart for $15 / hour. [Which is still less, by the way, than the $17 paid at the Wal-Mart in Williston.]
And even if they don't drop out of school, the after-school work at McDonald's puts an end to extracurricular activities (which can be just as important as school itself) and puts an end to doing one's homework. No, this is not good.
Fracking comes and goes. It's not particularly stable work. The oil and gas industry is a cyclic industry. But McDonalds and Wal-Mart will go on forever providing minimum wage jobs for those who drop out of middle school and high school.
Fracking is hard work, very, very hard work in very, very miserable locations, in many cases. By comparison, jobs at McDonald's and Wal-Mart are about as "cushy" as one can find. Air conditioned, free food, inside job, no day longer than eight hours, days off every three or four days.
The researchers who contend that fracking led to an increased drop out rate may have stumbled onto something, and the key word there is: stumbled.
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What $15 / Hour Means To A Tenth Grader
Updates
August 16, 2015: this will be a good site to follow over time. One can set the parameters. It will be interesting to see the 10-year trend line for work force participation of 16-year-olds once the minimum wage starts to gain traction. One would except, all things being equal, work force participation would decrease once the minimum wage exceeds the "norm."
Original Post
- first week of the month: 40 hours x $15 = $600 -- easily pays for a car.
- second week of the month: 40 hours x $15 = $600 -- easily pays for rent (two roommates sharing a $1200-apartment)
- third week of the month: 40 hours x $15 = $600 -- 1/2 pays for food; other 1/2 discretionary
- fourth week of the month: 40 hours x $15 = $600 -- all of it discretionary
No cell phone expenses: remain on their parents' family plan.
Why stay in school? Living away from home and having $900/month free money.
Yes, I know taxes get taken out; social security gets taken out; Medicare gets taken out; there are other expenses, but none of this is seen by the tenth grader until he gets his first few paychecks and by that time he is out of school.
Natural Gas Pipelines Changing America; Saudi Arabia Investing In US, China Because Of A Shortage Of Gas -- July 26, 2015
Updates
Later, 11:33 a.m. Central time: after posting the note below, I ran across this story, which supports my these that the shale revolution in the US is huge, much bigger than I think most people know. Bloomberg is reporting: Saudi Arabia's Sabic is considering investing in shale gas in the US.
Saudi Basic Industries Corp., the world’s second-biggest chemicals manufacturer, plans to expand investment in U.S. shale gas projects through joint ventures.
Sabic, as the company is known, signed an agreement with Houston, Texas-based Enterprise Products Partners L.P. to get shale gas.
The company may use the feedstock in the U.S. or export it to other countries such as the U.K., he said. Sabic has converted crackers at U.K. plants to use shale gas as feedstock to produce olefins and their derivatives more competitively.
“The main areas in the U.S. we are looking to invest in are the northeast and the south as they fit our overall expectations including government support, labor laws and unions."
Sabic, which in 2007 bought General Electric Co.’s plastics unit for $11.6 billion, said in April it plans to expand in China and the U.S. because it’s difficult for the company to grow in Saudi Arabia due to a shortage of gas. The Marcellus shale formation spread across Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio is America’s biggest natural gas producer, with output rising more than 14-fold since January 2007.Oil and natural gas tend to be found together in the same areas of the world, although the mix (natural gas vs oil) will vary in different fields. But when I read that Saudi is expanding in the US and China because it’s difficult for the company to grow in Saudi Arabia due to a shortage of gas it catches my eye. The spokesman didn't say "an anticipated" shortage of gas, nor did he say a "slowing of production" of gas now or in the future, the spokesman said the shortage of natural gas already exists in Saudi Arabia. Its neighbors have a lot of natural gas. Interesting.
Original Post
For me, the biggest story line is the huge advantage the US will have over the rest of the world with all its cheap energy.
I am not articulate enough to expand on all the story lines in the linked article, and even if I did, I do not have the time. I think I will just throw out some random, stream of consciousness thoughts that come up when reading this story.
The US will have a huge advantage compared to the rest of the world with all its cheap energy.
Europe will be left behind when it comes to energy.
The US will, if not already, become the largest exporter of energy to the rest of the world.
The war on coal may have been started by a community organizer, but the war was won by roughnecks.
Despite a gazillion dollars to stop pipelines in this country, 1,000 miles of new pipeline was built for every one mile of pipeline stopped (for natural gas and for crude oil).
One of the largest US natural gas pipelines is now on-line. Interestingly, it does not flow west to east, but east to west.
There are only a few companies big enough to tackle these huge pipeline projects, sort of like franchise players on an NBA team: Williams, Kinder Morgan, Spectra, Sempra, and a few others.
After 2017, the renewable energy push is dead. Renewable energy won't be dead, but the "hype" will have ended. Even Jane Nielson might notice (but if she does, she won't talk about it).
Speaking of which, I think Harper Lee made a mistake publishing (or being talked into publishing) Go Set A Watchman. However, it was "made-to-order" under the current racial divisiveness in this country. Ironic. New York Times contributor on this story.
How incredibly spectacular the shale revolution was.
And how long it's going to last. Bentek said the Bakken would max out at 2.2 million bopd; data at that time of the Bentek study suggested new wells would be drilled through 2030, and the Bakken would last through 2100. With so much oil on the market now, it's very possible the Bakken production has topped out at 1.2 million bopd, and will stabilize at 750,000 bopd. That means the Bakken is going to last a lot longer than originally thought. And it's going to be developed at a much more moderated pace, making quality of life in the Bakken so much better.
The cost of energy will definitely be reduced across regions of the country. Manufacturers will move to states where states want them, and where there is a "right to work" regardless of whether one belongs to the right club or not. According to the article:
Spot gas in Florida is at $2.94 per million BTUs, while Marcellus supplies at the Leidy hub slumped to $1.26.
The difference between the two has averaged $1.48 this year and will shrink to about 30 cents as pipelines come online over the next three years, Franjie said. Tudor Pickering analyst Jeff Schmidt similarly forecast between 20 to 30 cents.Let's keep it simple. Florida, $3.00 per unit; in the Marcellus, $1.25 per unit of natural gas. That's huge.
It's gonna get even cheaper to live in Florida -- BTW, no state income tax in Florida; can't say the same for frack-hating New York state.
Gas output has jumped more than 14-fold since January 2007, reaching a record 16.5 billion cubic feet a day earlier this summer. By the way, the North Dakota Bakken well that started the boom was in 2007. It was an EOG well in the Parshall oil field. How coincidental.
More staggering figures (can you say sayonara to "intermittent energy"?):
An expansion of Williams’s 10,200-mile (16,400 kilometer) Transcontinental Gas Pipeline system on the East Coast may enter service in December. Other proposals totaling as much as 7.5 billion cubic feet a day of capacity are scheduled to come online in 2016 and 2017. One billion cubic feet of gas is enough to heat about 10,000 U.S. homes for a year.Florida power plant demand for fuel hit a record for April, up 13% from a year earlier. The state is
home to six of the 20 fastest-growing US metropolitan areas. Can you spell "electoral college"?
Near the end of the article:
The shipments underscore how quickly the Marcellus shale formation -- spread across Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio -- has dominated the gas market. It has become America’s biggest producer in less than a decade and is now spreading its wealth across the country.By 2017, they say, because of the shale revolution and cheap energy, manufacturing costs in the US will be less than those costs in China.
By the way, EQT reported the biggest natural gas well ever in the Utica just a few days ago, and there are suggestions the Utica is much bigger than previously thought, and could be bigger than the Marcellus. Or maybe it already it. I can't keep track of them.
Finally, at the end of the article:
The pipelines coming online over the next three years will mark an “opening of the floodgates” to the U.S. Southeast.
The Problem With Intermittent Energy? Americans Like Dependable, Continuous Energy -- July 26, 2015
This is a great article on batteries.
Most readers are, no doubt, very familiar with the topic. However, the real importance of the article relates to keeping up with "politically correct" language in talking about energy.
We use to call wind energy and solar energy, "renewable energy." Which, of course, is ludicrous -- neither wind nor solar is "renewable." It's "simply there."
But now, GE is changing the category of wind energy and solar energy from "renewable energy" to something new: "intermittent energy."
That's right. "Intermittent energy." I can't make this stuff up. The problem with "intermittent energy," is that Americans like dependable, continuous energy. If Americans wanted intermittent energy they would move to Bangladesh, India, Kenya, or the Sudan (southern or northern, it wouldn't matter). Even North Korea for that matter.
If truth be known, the best category for solar energy and wind energy would be "redundant energy." Minnesotans are finding that out, "in spades," as they say.
Other category names for solar energy and wind energy:
This gives me an opportunity to opine on batteries from a different perspective. I have more than a little bit of first-hand knowledge and/or interest in the subject. My son-in-law worked in management/research for a battery "start-up" company after his MBA, working in Boston, just down the street from A123. Readers know the story of A123 -- now owned by a Chinese company after going broke. At least I think they won't broke; if not, "pert near."
Which reminds me of Solyndra. Wow, remember those days? Stories coming fast and furious; bankruptcies, scams, boondoggles, federal money, for all that "intermittent energy." But I digress.
As long ago as ten years ago, maybe 20 years ago, Steve Jobs was one of the first, if not the first to talk often and openly and publicly about the need for better battery technology. My son-in-law, when at that start-up in Boston, told me where the research was headed (recently there was a story suggesting there might have been a "breakthrough" of sorts based on that research). While there -- let's call him Bill, to keep this simple; that's not his real name -- anyway, while Bill was working for that start-up company he visited many, many research labs around the world, including university labs, US military R &D, and commercial labs to include well-known companies working on batteries. The two biggest names with the most money being spent on battery technology, it appeared, based on Bill's comments, were Toyota and Apple. They were interested in his technology, but like the Shark Tank, wanted too much of his company in exchange for too few dollars.
Companies have been working on battery technology for twenty or thirty years. One begins to wonder.
There's a law in computer chips called Moore's Law, stated in 1965: the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits had doubled every year since the integrated circuit was invented.
But that's not happening with batteries. One wonders if the laws of physics precludes dramatic shifts in battery breakthroughs. One starts with the periodic table and there are only so many combinations of anions and cations.
Be that as it may, that's one of the reasons I am convinced the Apple Watch is important for Apple. It forces the engineers to get better and better with battery technology.
Most readers are, no doubt, very familiar with the topic. However, the real importance of the article relates to keeping up with "politically correct" language in talking about energy.
We use to call wind energy and solar energy, "renewable energy." Which, of course, is ludicrous -- neither wind nor solar is "renewable." It's "simply there."
But now, GE is changing the category of wind energy and solar energy from "renewable energy" to something new: "intermittent energy."
That's right. "Intermittent energy." I can't make this stuff up. The problem with "intermittent energy," is that Americans like dependable, continuous energy. If Americans wanted intermittent energy they would move to Bangladesh, India, Kenya, or the Sudan (southern or northern, it wouldn't matter). Even North Korea for that matter.
If truth be known, the best category for solar energy and wind energy would be "redundant energy." Minnesotans are finding that out, "in spades," as they say.
Other category names for solar energy and wind energy:
- nuisance energy
- expensive energy
- eyesore energy
- Algore energy (my personal favorite)
- scam energy
- boondoggle energy
- DC energy (not "direct current," but as in "Washington, DC")
- slicers and dicers (wind turbines)
- KFC fryers (solar)
- tortoise fryers (solar)
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By The Way
This gives me an opportunity to opine on batteries from a different perspective. I have more than a little bit of first-hand knowledge and/or interest in the subject. My son-in-law worked in management/research for a battery "start-up" company after his MBA, working in Boston, just down the street from A123. Readers know the story of A123 -- now owned by a Chinese company after going broke. At least I think they won't broke; if not, "pert near."
Which reminds me of Solyndra. Wow, remember those days? Stories coming fast and furious; bankruptcies, scams, boondoggles, federal money, for all that "intermittent energy." But I digress.
As long ago as ten years ago, maybe 20 years ago, Steve Jobs was one of the first, if not the first to talk often and openly and publicly about the need for better battery technology. My son-in-law, when at that start-up in Boston, told me where the research was headed (recently there was a story suggesting there might have been a "breakthrough" of sorts based on that research). While there -- let's call him Bill, to keep this simple; that's not his real name -- anyway, while Bill was working for that start-up company he visited many, many research labs around the world, including university labs, US military R &D, and commercial labs to include well-known companies working on batteries. The two biggest names with the most money being spent on battery technology, it appeared, based on Bill's comments, were Toyota and Apple. They were interested in his technology, but like the Shark Tank, wanted too much of his company in exchange for too few dollars.
Companies have been working on battery technology for twenty or thirty years. One begins to wonder.
There's a law in computer chips called Moore's Law, stated in 1965: the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits had doubled every year since the integrated circuit was invented.
But that's not happening with batteries. One wonders if the laws of physics precludes dramatic shifts in battery breakthroughs. One starts with the periodic table and there are only so many combinations of anions and cations.
Be that as it may, that's one of the reasons I am convinced the Apple Watch is important for Apple. It forces the engineers to get better and better with battery technology.
New Managing Editor Over At The Dickinson Press? -- July 26, 2015
Stories from The Dickinson Press in the past two days:
If not a new managing editor, certainly a new "critical" evaluation of the Bakken.
By the way, the "fracking leads to a higher dropout rate among high school students" story is ludicrous on the face of it. I doubt fracking companies were hiring many folks under the age of 18 years of age, and I assume the number of 18-year-olds still in high school is a drop in the bucket. Even my wife, who does not like fracking (don't ask), laughed at the story. I wonder how the new $15/hour minimum wage in NYC will affect the drop-out rate? Just asking? You can't have it both ways. (By the way, this fracking story is an old, old story; made the rounds some weeks ago; I had already posted it from another source. Maybe the new managing editor of TDP is reading the blog. LOL.)
With regard to Greece, North Dakota is laughing all the way to the bank. Even the new Spiritwood ethanol plant / lignite coal burning plant was financed with "green cards" through a program devised by Congress in 1992. Readers know my position on ethanol, but if free money is available, North Dakota has as much "right" to it as New York or New Jersey.
Some other data points:
Welfare spending, state and local spending only:
- fracking leads to higher dropout rate among high school students
- Dickinson housing "is stabilizing with more availability" ...
- ... while Williston's housing market is a shambles
- North Dakota is the "Greece" of the US
If not a new managing editor, certainly a new "critical" evaluation of the Bakken.
By the way, the "fracking leads to a higher dropout rate among high school students" story is ludicrous on the face of it. I doubt fracking companies were hiring many folks under the age of 18 years of age, and I assume the number of 18-year-olds still in high school is a drop in the bucket. Even my wife, who does not like fracking (don't ask), laughed at the story. I wonder how the new $15/hour minimum wage in NYC will affect the drop-out rate? Just asking? You can't have it both ways. (By the way, this fracking story is an old, old story; made the rounds some weeks ago; I had already posted it from another source. Maybe the new managing editor of TDP is reading the blog. LOL.)
With regard to Greece, North Dakota is laughing all the way to the bank. Even the new Spiritwood ethanol plant / lignite coal burning plant was financed with "green cards" through a program devised by Congress in 1992. Readers know my position on ethanol, but if free money is available, North Dakota has as much "right" to it as New York or New Jersey.
Some other data points:
Welfare spending, state and local spending only:
- New York: $26 billion
- California: $40 billion
- North Dakota: $1 billion
- Washington, DC, #1
- Mississippi, #2,
- New Mexico, #3
- New Mexico, #1
- Mississippi, #2
- Kentucky, #3
- Minnesota, #8
- New York, #7
- Washington, DC, #6
- Vermont, #5
- Massachusetts, #4
- Tennessee, #3
- Maine, #2
- and, the state ranked the biggest welfare state in this particular study: California, #1
- Alaska has highest rate of welfare recipients
- North Dakota is #1 children's economic well being, for the fourth year in a row
Another 18-Well Super Pad, The Hess EN-Jeffrey Pad -- July 25, 2015
Updates
September 28, 2018: production data has been update for the EN-Jeffrey wells below. The graphic hasn't changed:
July 27, 2015: Wow, what a treat. I was wondering if a reader could shed light on what the pad looked like, whether it was one big pad, or more than one. It turns out that Scott Jeffrey, from New York, visited his family ranch, the Jeffrey Ranch, this past summer and took some great photos. They are facebook links, and for now, I think I will just provide the links -- maybe later post some of the photos as I usually do. Here are the links:
- Nice photo of two rows of 6 pumpers in each row
- The full "super-pad"
- The Hess EN-Jeffrey pad off in the distance
- An example of the signage
One can see the pad more closely at this link: https://www.google.com/maps/place/48%C2%B013%2744.1%22N+102%C2%B044%2757.5%22W/@48.229507,-102.7493787,230m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0?hl=en.
Wow, what beautiful country. God's country.
Original Post
Technically, these eighteen (18) wells may sit on one, two, or three separate pads. I haven't seen the area first-hand; maybe a reader can shed more light. But for my purposes, from now on, when I see groups of more than six to ten wells such as this group, I will refer to the entire enchilada as a "super pad." Think of all the money being saved by building only one main road to the site. I assume Hess is using pipelines wherever possibly to bring all necessary fluids to the site and to remove waste fluids from the site.
28956, conf, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-9, last checked 9/18;
28955, conf, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-8,
28954, conf, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-7,
28953, conf, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-6,
28952, conf, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-5,
28951, conf, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-4,
The data for the wells below were updated on February 7, 2016: all the wells (with the exception of #22687) were on line for 24 days in 12/15; and, 28 days in 11/15;
27574, 1,154, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2734H-9, 4 sections, t11/14; cum 182K 7/18; 10 days in 11/16; 21 days, 12/16;
27573, 837, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2734H-8, 4 sections, t12/14; cum 155K 7/18;
22683, 615, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-3, t2/13; cum 164K 7/18;
22684, 689, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2734H-2, 4 sections, t2/13; cum 188K 7/18;
22685, 598, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-2, 4 sections, t2/13; cum 136K 7/18;
22686, 771, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2734H-1, 4 sections, t1/13; cum 167K 7/18;
27572, 1,265, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2734H-7, 4 sections, t12/14; cum 175K 7/18;
27571, 944, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2734H-6, 4 sections, t11/14; cum 121K 7/18; only 6 days in 12/15; only 2 days 11/16; 18 days, 12/16;
25924, 953, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2734H-5, 4 sections, t5/14; cum 158K 7/18;
25923, 803, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2734H-8, 4 sections, t5/14; cum 134K 7/18;
22682, 912, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2734H-3, 4 sections, t6/14; cum 180K 7/18;
22687, 1,107, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-1, t4/14; cum 1232K 7/18; only 11 days in 12/15; 16 days in 11/15;
Note: in a long note like this, there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.
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Another Photo From A Reader In The Bakken
As promised, here is the third of several photos that will be posted over the next several days. The first batch of photos will be of the Statoil Trust wells a few miles west of Williston. This 5-well pad is just east of another 4-well pad in the same section.
A huge "thank you" to the reader for sending these photos.
