And That's The Way It Is -- Gonna Go Work For Oasis -- March 16, 2015

This is the usual input operators give the NDIC with regard to where the rig is going next:

But this is, without question, the "best" thing I've seen all day:

The reader who sent this in has received a lifetime subscription to "themilliondollarway."

"Going to work for someone else" is about as good as it gets in this drilling environment. Wow, that's funny. 

500 Miles, The Hooters

Their Initials Are ISIS ... Or ISIL ... Depending ... March 16, 2015; Suicide Is Painless

Reuters/Rigzone is reporting: U.S. Warns of Possible Attacks on Western Oil Workers in Saudi Arabia.

Western oil workers in Saudi Arabia may be the target of militant attacks, the U.S. embassy warned on Friday.

"The U.S. Embassy has information stating that, as of early March, individuals associated with a terrorist organization could be targeting Western oil workers, possibly to include those U.S. citizens working for oil companies in the Eastern Province, for an attack(s) and/or kidnapping(s)," it said.

The message did not identify the militants.

But their initials are I.S.I.S. or I.S.I.L. if you work in the White House. 

Disclaimer: this is not a "spy site." Do not make any cybersecurity or travel plans to Muslim countries based on what you read here. If this is important to you, fax a FOIA request to the White House or e-mail General Petraeus.

Theme song for Americans working in the Mideast:

Suicide Is Painless, MASH Theme

Getting The News Through Tweets -- March 16, 2015

The Obama administration has a news embargo on Ebola, so we are getting the story in bits and pieces, mostly through tweets. Tweeting now:

5th person to be monitored for Ebola symptoms has arrived at Nebraska Medicine, hospital says - @NebraskaMed

At least it's hard to catch.

Meanwhile, over in Libya, tweeting now:

Islamic State fighters kidnapped about 20 medical workers from Sirte, Libya, hospital during an attack on the facility, official says - @cnnbrk

The JV team.

Another JV team; yeah, she's guilty. Yeah, "I fought the law, but the law won, but what does it matter?" Hillary's 2016 theme song:

I Fought The Law, Bobby Fuller Four

**************************

Meanwhile In The Civilized World

Macrumors is reporting:

Apple is in talks with programmers including CBS, 21st Century Fox and Walt Disney to launch a subscription-based streaming TV service this fall, according to The Wall Street Journal. The report, citing sources familiar with the matter, claims that the service would have about 25 channels, cost between $30 to $40 per month and be available on iPad, iPhone and Apple TV. The service is said to debut at Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference in June ahead of a September launch in the United States.

Compare that with three channels I actually watch and 22 channels that are a) in Spanish; b) televangelists; or, c) shopping networks and getting charged $125/month for the privilege. 
 

Monday Night -- March 16, 2015; American-Trained Varsity Team Having Problems With The JV Team; Iraqis "Temporarily Stopped" -- Baghdad Bob

Muslim March Madness

The Iraqi force is the US-trained varsity team in the Mideast. It is taking on the JV's and it has turned out to be a bit rougher than expected. The Washington Post is reporting:

Iraqi forces’ operation to retake the city of Tikrit has stalled as troops suffer heavy casualties at the hands of Islamic State militants, raising concerns about whether the [American-trained varsity team is] ready for major offensives.

After two days of little activity on the battlefield, Iraq’s interior minister, Mohammed al-Ghabban, confirmed Monday that the offensive has “temporarily stopped.” The steady flow of caskets arriving in Iraq’s Shiite holy city of Najaf suggests a reason for the pause; cemetery workers say as many as 60 war dead have been arriving each day.

Since last week, Iraqi forces have hemmed in the Sunni militants in Tikrit, claiming control of the majority of the former Islamic State stronghold. But the operation has come at a cost, with soldiers saying the fight has been tougher than expected. As the momentum has slowed, some Iraqi officials have begun to publicly call for U.S.-led air support. [Why isn't the Iraqi Air Force or the Jordanians providing air support?]

While Iraqi officials still express confidence that they can retake the city, the stuttering offensive does not bode well for the more complex battles for the city of Mosul and for militant-held areas of Anbar province that were expected to begin in coming months.

Baghdad Bob

******************************************

Que Pasa?

From the Economist with some great graphics:

AMERICA is a country built by immigration, but nothing in its history compares to the rise in its Hispanic population. 

Changes to immigration law in the 1960s triggered a decades-long surge in arrivals, taking the Hispanic population from just 7 million  in 1970 to 57 million today, a number that is set to double by mid-century.

At that point one in four Americans will be of Latino descent.

In relation to the population of the day, there have been proportionally larger surges in the past, notably involving European migrations in the 19th and early 20th centuries.

Two factors make the rise of Hispanic America different. Never before has such a large group of new arrivals lived so close to their ancestral homelands, linked to grandparents in the same time zone by cheap flights and Skype. Secondly, America is entering an era of white decline.

For almost two centuries, from the time of George Washington's presidency to the election of Ronald Reagan, whites of European descent made up at least 80% of the population. That share is below two-thirds now, and the white majority is set to become a minority by 2044.

That brings both challenges and opportunities. Today's Hispanics lag behind whites when it comes to education and wealth. But they are strikingly young, lowering America's median age and offering workers to fill the labour market when other rich countries face greying decline. Politicians too often discuss Hispanics as almost a single-issue group, as victims or villains of immigration.

But five-sixths are legal residents and recent Latino growth has been mostly from births, not new arrivals. Hispanics are dispersing across the country and their political clout will only grow: nearly 1 million US-born Latinos reach voting age annually.

Will US become a bilingual country?

I only listen to two radio stations: a) a conservative talk radio station in English, but I can't listen to it when my wife is also listening; and, b) a Hispanic music station. I don't listen to the conservation talk station very much; haven't listened to it in the past week; mostly just the music station.

At the Dallas World Aquarium everything is in English and Spanish, and both are equally prominent. I assume that over time, the English signs will get smaller and by the end of the century, disappear altogether. Good, bad, or indifferent, that's the way it is in Texas.

On another note, tonight I will be watching one of two movies, either Lost in Translation or Grand Budapest Hotel. I need to watch a little Bill Murray. He stars in the first; has minor role in the latter. I have St Vincent in which he stars but it's not as good as it could have been. We'll see.

Dropping off our 8-y/o at soccer practice tonight I thought about Bill Murray. I think he would be a great soccer mom.

We heard this every time we visited the River Walk in San Antonio:

La Charreada, Linda Ronstadt
Only 779 million (no typo: almost 800 million) hits:

Bailando, Enrique Iglesias

Again, 3/4 Wells Go To DRL Status; Four (4) New Permits -- March 16, 2015

Active rigs:

	3/16/2015	03/16/2014	03/16/2013	03/16/2012	03/16/2011
Active Rigs	111	190	185	205	170

Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:

• 25857, drl, Statoil, Skarston 1-12 4H, Banks, no production data,
• 26674, 80, OXY USA, State Anderson 2-3-25H-143-97, Little Knife, producing, appears to be a typical OXY USA well, t9/14 cum 24K 1/15;
• 27938, drl, SM Energy, Manning 1X-32H, Camp, no production data,
• 29236, drl, Statoil, Smith Farm 23-14 8TFH, Cow Creek, no production data,

Four (4) new permits --

• Operators: BR (2), OXY USA, XTO
• Fields: North Fork (McKenzie), Manning (Dunn), Bear Den (McKenzie)
• Comments: Interesting to see OXY USA still active.

Twenty (20) producing wells completed:

• 21536, 1,348, Enerplus, Mandan 150-94-32C-29H TF, Spotted Horn, t2/15 cum --
• 21537, 1,522, Enerplus, Hidatsa 150-94-32C-29H, Spotted Horn, t2/15; cum --
• 24072, 128, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Holmes 8-5-158N-100W, Winner, t3/15, cum --
• 24451, 342, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ruby 17-20-158N-100W, Winner, t3/15; cum --
• 27375, 984, Petro-Hunt, Sherven Trsut 153-95-27D-5H, Charlson, t2/15, cum --
• 27376, 1,578, Petro Hunt, Sherven Trust 153-95-27D-6H, Charlson, t2/15; cum --
• 27395, 529, OXY USA, Shuck 4-28-33H-144-97, Little Knife, t12/14; cum 15K 1/15;
• 27396, 620, OXY USA, Shuck 5-28-33H-144-97, Little Kinfe, t12/14; cum 23K 1/15;
• 27564, 1,235, CLR, Holstein Federal 2-25H, Elm Tree, t2/15; cum 5K 1/15;
• 27604, 1,344, BR, Bullrush 24-10TFH, Elidah, t2/15; cum --
• 27738, 435, Oasis, Montague 5601 41-34 7B, Cow Creek, t2/15; cum --
• 28045, 315, Oasis, Holmes 5501 14-5 6T, Tyrone, t2/15; cum --
• 28353, 2,405, BR, CCU Pullman 2-8-7MBH, Corral Creek, unitized, t2/15; cum --
• 28516, 694, OXY USA, Shuck 6-33-28H-144-97, Little Knife, t12/14; cum 21K 1/15;
• 28616, 708, Samson Resources, Ranchero 1918-2H, Ambrose, t2/15 cum --
• 28617, 696, Samson Resources, Beetle 3031-3H, Ambrose, t2/15; cum --
• 28812, 573, SM Energy, James 16X-35HB, Camp, t1/15; cum 7K 1/15;
• 29037, 902, CLR, Salem 4-6H, Dollar Joe, t3/15; cum --
• 29038, 603, CLR, Salem 5-6H1, Dollar Joe, t2/15; cum --
• 29355, 583, Whiting, Knife River State 41-16TFH, Sanish, t2/15; cum --

EOG canceled two (2) Wayzetta permits, Sanish oil field, Mountrail County.

Random Look At An Incredibly Busy Location -- Alkali Creek, 20/21/22-155-94

This well came off the confidential list today; it is inactive/shut-in for operational reasons:

• 29187, 746, Hess, EN-Nelson-155-94-2833H-7, Alkali Creek, t4/15; cum 149K 9/19;

I've seen a fair number of Hess EN-Nelson wells recently so was curious what the area looked like. Here it is:

************************************

A Suggestion

From Yahoo!Finance:

The U.S. government has officially hit its debt ceiling. Beginning today, the Treasury Department is taking “extraordinary measures” to keep the government from defaulting on its debt which now exceeds $18 trillion.

A suggestion: starting exporting US oil. LOL.

I can't wait to see the "extraordinary measures the Treasury Department takes. We should start hearing about them late Friday evening, after COB.

************************************

ABC News Launches on Roku

Tweeting now:

ABC News launches on Roku, joins other major networks reaching 10 million players - @tvnewser

************************************

At Least It's Hard To Catch

Also tweeting now:

National Institutes of Health changes status of aid worker with Ebola virus from serious to critical condition - @NIH

************************************

In A Box

The AP is reporting:

For the Federal Reserve, patience may no longer be a virtue.

Surrounding the Fed's policy meeting this week is the widespread expectation that it will no longer use the word "patient" to describe its stance on raising interest rates from record lows.

The big question is: What will that mean?

Many economists say the dropping of "patience" would signal that the Fed plans to start raising rates in June to reflect a steadily strengthening U.S. job market. Others foresee no rate hike before September. And a few predict no increase before year's end at the earliest.

Complicating the decision is a surging U.S. dollar, which is keeping inflation far below the Fed's target rate and posing a threat to U.S. corporate profits and possibly to the economy. A rate increase could send the dollar even higher.

Random Look At Crescent Point Energy In Northwest Corner Of The Bakken -- March 16, 2015

This well is scheduled to come off the confidential list today. The production numbers released to date caught my attention. It will be interesting to see whether this is a middle Bakken well or a Three Forks well. CPEUSC is drilling middle Bakken wells on the northwest edge of the Bakken but I haven't checked to see if they are also drilling Three Forks wells there. I would assume they are, or will.

But look at the production from this well. On the few CPEUSC wells I checked, they are using 35 stages and 3.5 million lbs to frack long laterals.

• 24062, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Narcisse 8-5-158N-99W, Ellisville:

NDIC File No: 24062     API No: 33-105-02846-00-00     CTB No: 124062
Well Type: ON CONFIDENTIAL STATUS
Location: SWSE 8-158-99    
Current Operator: CRESCENT POINT ENERGY U.S. CORP.
Current Well Name: CPEUSC NARCISSE 8-5-158N-99W
    Field: ELLISVILLE

Monthly Sales Data:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2015	13311	8291
12-2014	12740	4278

*****************************************

Ellisville Oil Field

Ellisville oil field is a single township, 36 sections, T158N-R99W, in north-central Williams County, along the Divide County line; it is on the "edge" of the middle Bakken.

There are no 640-acre drilling units in this field. They were originally18 1280-acre units, but now there are also some 1280-acre units.

Oil Drillers Won't Get Any Relief Until Late 2015 (At The Earliest) -- OPEC -- March, 16, 2015

The data for the wells coming off the confidential list today has been updated; the data is at this post. Click on the link or scroll down a bit.

***************************

Lying Through Their Turbans

Just the other day, a spokesman for OPEC said they were not targeting the frackers in North America.

Today, this lead story over at Reuters:

OPEC says low oil prices may hit U.S. output by late 2015

But they are watching the frackers closely, it seems:

U.S. oil output could start to take a hit by late 2015 due to low prices, OPEC said on Monday, suggesting the exporter group will have to wait beyond its next meeting in June to see if its strategy to defend market share will dent the shale oil boom.

In a monthly report, OPEC left its forecast for non-OPEC supply this year unchanged and said output of U.S. "tight" oil, also known as shale, might only start to be curbed towards the end of the year. 

"Tight crude producers are aware that typical oil wells in shale plays decline 60 percent annually, and that losses can only be recouped by drilling new wells," OPEC said.
"As drilling subsides due to high costs and a potentially sustained low oil price, a drop in production can be expected to follow, possibly by late 2015."

**************************

Is Afghanistan The New Forward Base For US Troops In The Mideast?

The AP is reporting:

The Obama administration is abandoning plans to cut the number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan to 5,500 by year's end, bowing to military leaders who want to keep more troops there, including many into the 2016 fighting season, U.S. officials say.

********************************

Don't Worry, Be Happy

From Kitty Litter To Chicken Little -- The Sky Is Falling, The Sky Is Falling -- March 16, 2015

Ah, such faithful (and observant) readers. I love 'em all.

The other day I saw an article on some "waste socks" found in Williston; I can't remember which regional newspaper posted the story, but I can imagine. It appears the socks a) had been laying there for at least a year; b) they posed no threat to anyone; and, c) they were quickly and appropriately disposed.

A reader must have seen that same article. She provides this update of a radioactive waste story elsewhere:

A while ago I'd sent articles about the kitty litter fiasco:

.....some misguided employee had managed to buy organic kitty litter instead of inorganic kitty litter, and so an undetermined number of barrels with the wrong mix added to nuclear waste had been transported from Los Alamos to Carlsbad - before it was revealed that some barrels had corroded/burst/leaked.

WIPP is closed for an estimated 5 years to allow for the cleanup. Where is Los Alamos going to send their nuclear brew in the meantime? hmmm..... So, now we have "the sky is falling" update. 

In mid-January, a block of salt ceiling – an 8-foot-by-8-foot square, 2 feet thick – came crashing down at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant nuclear waste repository.

No one was injured, and no waste containers were damaged.

But the roof collapse offered a reminder of the dangers lurking underground at the plant, where hundreds of drums of radioactive waste, packed with a volatile mix of materials that caused one drum to breach last year, are stored in panels that have yet to be permanently sealed – despite a state order to do so.

WIPP’s managers say they’re making progress but admit the going is slow due to the radiological contamination. The New Mexico Environment Department says WIPP is moving as quickly as it can while ensuring the safety of workers.

The reader concludes: Sure does make it seem safer to rely on oil and gas from North Dakota's Bakken (;>).

I was not even aware there was such a thing as organic kitty litter. I guess that is the sand from the neighbor's sandbox. 

Monday -- March 16 ,2015

Active rigs:

	3/16/2015	03/16/2014	03/16/2013	03/16/2012	03/16/2011
Active Rigs	111	190	185	205	170

RBN Energy: the Marcellus is about to change everything.

An average of 13 Bcf/d of natural gas flows into the Midwest from producing regions in Canada, the Midcontinent, the Southeast and the Rockies. Over the past 7 years the region has been in the crosshairs of major infrastructure and supply changes to the North American natural gas market, starting in 2008 with the Rockies Express (REX) pipeline and continuing today as surplus Northeast supplies reverse pipeline flows and push into the Midcontinent. Today we begin our look at rapidly evolving fundamentals in the Midwest by describing changing supply sources.

This is Part 6 in our natural gas forward curve series. Part 1 provided a definition of forward curves and how they work. Part 2 and Part 3 dove into two Northeast gas markets – Transco Zone 6 in New York and Dominion South in Appalachia – examining how their forward curves have been reshaped by the shale revolution and assessing the resulting transformation of the Northeast gas market from a net demand region to a net supply region. In Part 4, we previewed the fundamental drivers influencing Northeast forward curves for the next several years. And, finally, Part 5 dissected the timing of these fundamental changes, how they correlate to current Northeast forward curves and what they indicate about when regional natural gas prices may begin to recover.

The bottom line is that the Marcellus really is about to change everything. So far the full impact of the supply growth has been somewhat contained to the Northeast by limited takeaway capacity. But when surplus northeast supplies begin to target outside regions, the Midwest will be one of the first to feel the pinch, with the first wave coming as early as this summer. Today we begin our look at what this all means for Midwest gas prices.