Don sent me the link. This is a very interesting story.
This is from
today's Gallup essay.
See if you spot the story lines as you start with the graph and then go through the essay.
Some background and comments:
Gallup has tracked this only since 2010 -- it's a new metric.
This is the percent of the US adult population employed
full time for an employer. So this would not include self-employed; it might not include owners of mom-and-pop businesses.
Gallup notes the data for January, 2015, reveals that P2P hit its
highest mark for any January since 2010. From Gallup:
The U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate (P2P), as measured by
Gallup, was 44.1% in January. This is statistically similar to the 44.3%
measured in December, but it is the highest measurement of P2P for any
January since Gallup began tracking the metric in 2010. January is
typically one of the lowest months for P2P in any year.
My first question: what is the definition of
full-time? It turns out to be 30 hours.
We'll come back to that in a minute.
Second question: how is the data obtained? Landline telephone and cellphone.
Third question: who is excluded? Gallup does not count adults who are self-employed, work fewer than 30
hours per week, who are unemployed or are
out of the workforce as
payroll-employed in the P2P metric.
" ... out of the workforce ... " I think one can already see what the means.
Now back to the first question: the definition of full-time. Growing up I was always told that "full-time" meant a "forty-hour week."
With ObamaCare I was
the first blogger with no advertising who suggested that ObamaCare would result in a new Federal standard for a full-time workweek: 30 hours. It turns out I was correct. In fact, I have
a "29-hour-work-week" tag at the bottom of the blog.
ObamaCare was signed into law on March 23, 2010, by President Obama.
Gallup began tracking this metric that same year (2010) and used the ObamaCare standard as full-time: 30 hours.
It would be interesting if Gallup would include in this survey, this question to those who work 30 hours but less than 40 hours: do you consider yourself working full-time? My hunch is close to 100% of respondents would say one of the following a) my employer considers it full-time; b) the government considers it full-time; c) I do not consider it full-time; d) I don't know if it's full-time or not but it's not enough to support my family, working only 30 hours.
Hopefully, ObamaCare doesn't change the definition to 20 hours for full-time employment. Gallup would have to change its metric, its poll.
******************************************
Re-Set
For me, the big takeaway regarding all these "job" statistics: sometime in the past twenty (20) years, for whatever reason, definitions regarding employment have changed. It doesn't matter why the definitions have changed (policy changes, automation, economy, you name it); the fact is that full employment which used to be 4% is now 8%. With the social safety network in place, many of the 8% unemployed are doing better financially than if they worked.
Even if folks don't accept 8% as full employment, it's hard to see much difference between 5.6% (current unemployment rate -- yes, I know it's one big like) and 4% (assuming that wasn't one big lie back in the 1960's).
