Thursday, December 10, 2015

Some days are busier than others. This is going to be one of those days. If you are at all interested in oil pricing, perhaps the best article to read today is the RBN Energy post today: A New World Order? -- Global Crude Supply and Demand Through 2025.

Rigzone also has a story along those same lines:

Among the most galvanizing themes confronting oil and gas in the foreseeable market are those of increasing geopolitical threats and instability. And that’s going to leave oil prices lost in translation.

As analysts at Simmons & Company International explained in a December update, it’s the geopolitical instability and the inherent tumult it creates throughout the world that have created a “massive disconnect” - one that’s placed oil prices close to 50 percent below what’s needed to grow production and renew inventory. 

“Increased military conflict in the region now is preordained and it would seem that the optionality for further regional destabilization has increased,” they said. “Furthermore, one would think that the cost of capital for regional energy investment will move higher as well given the destabilization.”

The top Drudge story at the moment -- Rahm and Chicago -- is a huge story, as is the Supreme Court case on affirmative action, though I think the Court will again manage to find a way to skirt the issue.

I wanted to do a long piece on what the Director's Cut that was released yesterday but I'm going to hold off for awhile.

And, of course, there's going to be all the jobs data and energy data released today. By the way, there's a huge article out there about the possibility of a "mass" stop-loss event if Janet's rate rise goes awry. Nah, that won't happen.

And, if that's not enough, Ebola is back. 

Yes, it's going to be a busy day.

Active rigs:

	12/10/2015	12/10/2014	12/10/2013	12/10/2012	12/10/2011
Active Rigs	65	187	193	181	200

RBN Energy: see link above. The article will be archived.

At least it's easy to treat. Ebola is back. The Wall Street Journal is reporting:

Twice this year, Liberia, the worst hit of all Ebola-affected nations with at least 4,800 deaths blamed on the disease, has been declared Ebola-free, only to see new cases appear. Liberian officials and medical researchers now wonder how soon their country and its neighbors will be completely rid of the scourge.

The World Health Organization judges a country “free of Ebola transmission” when 42 days pass without a new case of the hemorrhagic fever. The African nations most affected by the disease—Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea—have struggled mightily for the designation, an international clean bill of health that means they can at last turn the corner on an epidemic that has taken the lives of more than 11,300 people.

But with new instances of the disease in Liberia, doctors and public-health officials in West Africa now face another prognosis. While another large Ebola outbreak is highly unlikely due to enormous progress in detecting and responding to the disease, patients infected with the virus may continue to walk through hospital doors for months, possibly years, to come. 

In my note on the Director's Cut yesterday I reiterated that the NDIC has changed the one-year rule for operators to complete wells within one year. Here is one source for that comment.