Could We Actually See US Crude Oil Being Exported Beginning In 2016? -- December 13, 2015

This is moving along much, much faster than I ever expected, but then I never expected Bakken oil to trade at $27/bbl and still maintain near record production. Google us oil export. Too many articles to link, so this one Bloomberg article will be the proxy for all of them: Senators Close in on Oil-Export Deal Amid Tax-Break Talks.

Senate negotiators are nearing a deal to allow unfettered U.S. crude oil exports for the first time in 40 years, though differences remain on renewable-energy tax credits that Democrats are demanding in return.

While any agreement could still collapse in the coming days -- the deal faces opposition in the House -- lawmakers are weighing the extension of solar and wind tax credits for as long as five years in exchange for lifting the crude-export restrictions, which were established to counter the energy shortages of the 1970s.

Tax breaks are part of the discussion, though lawmakers are still negotiating the length of wind- and solar-energy tax extensions and whether they should be phased out, said a Senate Democratic leadership aide.

If agreed to and approved by Congress, repeal of the nation’s ban on most crude oil exports would mark the most significant shift in U.S. oil policy in more than a generation. Repeal, benefiting oil producers including ConocoPhillips, Hess Corp. and Continental Resources Inc., would come at a time when the industry is cutting jobs to deal with a global glut in crude oil and the lowest prices in seven years.

Talks for a deal are under way as envoys from 195 nations reached an agreement to limit fossil-fuel pollution and curb the effects of climate change.

It will be interesting if Congress agrees to extending tax cuts for intermittent energy. My hunch is they do, if they get the rest. President Obama would need that "cover" (tax credits for intermittent energy) if he were to go along with this.

Having just come from the global warming conference in Paris, I don't know how Obama could approve US oil exports which will only encourage more fossil fuel use. This will be very interesting to watch.

But what a great poll. My hunch is he will veto the bill unless Reid, Pelosi, Schumer let him know that the veto will be overridden, and even still, he made veto the bill, sticking to his principles, and requiring Congress to override the veto.

So, the poll:

Will President Obama allow the US to export crude oil beginning in 2016?

• yes
• no
• yes, with lots of conditions including tax credits for wind/solar

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US Crude Oil Exports

If the US were to allow unfettered US crude oil exports, this would finally make oil a true commodity (unless I'm missing something). The US is the last cartel, not allowing exports (with minor exceptions). OPEC is no longer a cartel, allowing its members to produce as much as they want and to sell their oil wherever they can find a buyer.

If the US were to allow unfettered US crude oil exports, we might finally get to see how much oil Saudi Arabia could produce.