Bakken Refinery Rush Cools Down -- RBN Energy -- December 2, 2015

GDP Now, dynamic link:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 1.4 percent on December 1, down from 1.8 percent on November 25.

The decline occurred this morning after the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute of Supply Management and the construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Active rigs:

	12/2/2015	12/02/2014	12/02/2013	12/02/2012	12/02/2011
Active Rigs	66	189	192	182	199

RBN Energy: Bakken Refinery Rush Cools Down.

The 20 Mb/d Dakota Prairie refinery commenced operation on May 4, 2015 – becoming the first brand new U.S. crude processing plant to startup in nearly 40 years. The rationale behind this refinery and plans for others like it was surging demand for diesel driven by the shale oil boom in North Dakota. However the market conditions that prompted interest in building refineries in the Bakken region have changed considerably in the past year and led to an unprofitable first quarter for Dakota Prairie. Today we explain why the new refinery made sense at one time and what has changed in the past year.

Despite the oil price crash last year (2014) and consequent fall off in drilling - North Dakota is still producing over 1.1 MMb/d of crude as of September (according to the North Dakota Industrial Commission – NDIC) – the vast majority of which (all but about 100 Mb/d) leaves the State for Midcontinent or Coastal refineries by rail or pipeline. Up until May 2015 the only refinery operating in North Dakota was the Tesoro Mandan facility that processes about 70 Mb/d of crude. As we have previously described - the lack of local refining capacity in a state sitting on top of bounteous crude supplies as well as the prospect of high margins - attracted the attention of several companies looking to build new refineries. We first covered the topic back in April 2013 when plans for three new refineries were getting off the ground.

A year later in June 2014, at least 5 companies were planning to build “micro” refineries that hoped to process 20 Mb/d of crude each. Since then the first of those refineries – the Dakota Prairie facility owned by a joint venture between MDU Resources Group and Calumet Specialty Products – has come online (on May 4, 2015) and is processing about 19 Mb/d of Bakken crude (operating at 95% of capacity). The Dakota Prairie refinery is the first Greenfield (built from new) refinery constructed in the U.S. since 1976. However - as we shall see – changing demand for diesel fuel in North Dakota and a reduction in the price advantage for Bakken crude made the new refinery’s first quarter unprofitable and appears to have chilled progress on the other projects.

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How US Drillers Weathered Price Slump

From CBNC.

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Schlumberger To Cut More Jobs

Link here.

Oil service company Schlumberger announced another round of job cuts on Tuesday, adding to 20,000 already this year, as low oil prices and a slowdown in drilling was expected to continue into next year.

The layoffs, which will incur a pretax restructuring charge of about $350 million in the fourth quarter, are the latest sign of continued pain in the oil industry as oversupply continues to weigh on prices and cut profits for even the largest companies.

The size, location and timing of the cuts were unclear.