Tuesday, November 3, 2015; After Huge Beat, Greenbrier Raises Dividend From 15 Cents To 20 Cents

Tweeting now: Shell splits off shale, oilsands operations into separate unit to boost returns from unconventional resources.

Tweeting now: weekly rail traffic data -- analysts say things are getting worse, but the graph does not exactly support that assertion (a dynamic link). Four years (2012 - 2015, inclusive) are tracked; one can argue 2014 was the outlier; if so, 2015 looks no worse then previous years, perhaps better.

Increased dividend: Greenbrier Cos (GBX) -- from 15 cents to 20 cents; earlier at the blog --

• Greenbrier: huge, huge beat; forecast $1.80; actually earned $2.02;

Active rigs:

	11/3/2015	11/03/2014	11/03/2013	11/03/2012	11/03/2011
Active Rigs	69	186	181	188	194

RBN Energy: Houston: Infrastructure Response to Shale Era Crude Oil Supply Transformation.

Prior to 2012 the only U.S. produced crude delivered by pipeline to Houston area refineries came from offshore Gulf of Mexico or onshore Louisiana fields. The majority of supplies were imports delivered by waterborne tanker. But in just three short years between 2012 and 2015, roughly 2 MMb/d of crude pipeline capacity was built or repurposed to deliver surging light shale crude production and heavy crude from Canada into the Houston area. Refiners have adapted quickly to take advantage of new sources of supply. But with much of the newly minted infrastructure underutilized, midstream companies still need to improve pipeline connectivity and storage accessibility to overcome area logistical challenges. Today we review RBN’s latest Drill Down report on Houston crude infrastructure – released today -- and announce RBN’s new infrastructure database and mapping system, called MIDI.

In 2011 average waterborne imports to Houston area ports were 1.7 MMb/d – enough to supply more than 70% of local refinery needs. Since April 2012 when Phase 1 of the Seaway pipeline reversal (150 Mb/d) came online to deliver crude from the Midwest Cushing, OK trading hub to Houston, that position has been largely reversed as multiple new pipelines have come online delivering domestic and Canadian crude to the Houston area – pushing out imports in the process. In July 2015 crude delivered by pipelines developed since 2012 accounted for about 55% of Houston supply and waterborne imports had dwindled to 0.8 MMb/d. Our latest Drill Down report – available exclusively to Backstage Pass subscribers provides detailed analysis of the changing crude supply/demand balance for 9 refineries and two condensate splitters in the Houston area that between them consume about 2.4 MMb/d.