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Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Jack Kemp's Weekly Energy Tweets -- November 4, 2015

US refinery throughput essentially unchanged from prior week as refineries pass midpoint of maintenance season; throughput remains above 10-year high, but just barely.

US propane stocks hit new record of 102 million bbls; up 22.2 million bbls above prior-year level. This year's propane stocks are so much higher than the 10-year range, the graph is simply staggering. The 10-year graph no longer has any relevance. The entire US crude oil and natural gas metrics will have to be re-set, perhaps starting with 2013 or 2014.

US distillate stocks fell 1.3 million bbls; the 7th consecutive week of decline. Total draw of 13.2 million but still up 9.2 million above average. Sits about in the middle of the 10-year range -- actually looks a bit lower than the mid-point of that range.

US gasoline stocks fell 3.3 million bbls, the 4th consecutive week of declines, though still 12.1 million bbls above the 10-year seasonal average. The graph is staggering.

US commercial crude stocks rise 2.8 million bbls and are now 103 million bbls above 2014. The graph at the tweet is amazing, to say the least. The ten-year high was around 350 million blls; the ten-year low was about 250 million bbls. Most recently, about 475 million bbls. US commercial crude stocks are in the stratosphere and will make new 10-year graphs completely meaningless.

US total refined product stocks fells 5.2 million bbls last week, the 7th consecutive decline.  Again, the same comments regarding the 10-year history as noted above.

US total commercial oil stocks fell 2.3 million bbls last week, second consecutive decline. The graph is staggering. This year's number is so far above the 10-year range, the 10-year graph has become meaningless.

US diesel very cheap compared with gasoline as market enters winter with unusually large stocks. The interesting thing is that distillate fuel oil stocks are right in the middle of the 10-year history grapha nd trening down, for several weeks now.

Over the past four weeks, US gasoline demand is trending up; diesel is trending down, but choppy.

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Other Energy Tweets

Tweeting at Platts: Restarting crude oil output from Kuwait-Saudi partitioned neutral zone has both technical and political issues accoring to Kuwaiti oil minister.

Tweeting at Platts: Kuwaiti oil minister says oil prices may have bottomed, high-cost output falling; caustious about outlook for global economy.

EIA is tweeting: Texas expects to keep breaking wind generation records as capacity grows. Boone Pickens was right; he was just too early.

Tweeting at Platts: Canada's oil and gas drilling activity expected to fall further in 2016, to 5,150 oil wells, down from 5,340 in 2015. This would be one of the high cost producers the Kuwaiti oil minster would be referring to.

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EIA "Energy Cookie:

EIA:
As U.S. propane production has increased and domestic demand has remained relatively flat, the United States has transitioned from being a net propane importer to a net exporter.
Facilitated by rapid expansion in the capacity to export domestic supply, propane exports from the United States are changing traditional propane trade patterns across the globe. --- EIA

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