What's Driving The Recent Rally In Oil? -- October 9, 2015

Goldman Sachs continues to advise that the price of oil is likely to fall as low as $20/bbl. Recently GS said that the current rally in the price of crude oil will be short-lived. Be that as it may, what do you think has driven the recent rally?

• strength/weakness of the dollar
• fundamentals (US production declining)
• Russian involvement in Syria
• other?

See poll at sidebar.

By the way, from Jack Kemp: oil prices strengthen, shrug off GS's comments.  Oil & Gas Journal suggests it is due to Russian involvement in Syria.

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The 21st Century Is America's 

Don sent me this link to another great American energy story:

It will be the sixth new gas-fired power plant being built in Ohio and it is being developed because of plentiful natural gas from the Utica Shale.

Data points:

• $1.1 billion
• 1,100 MW
• $1 million / MW (compare to solar: $2 million /MW)
• 20 acres on a 150 acre tract 
• solar requires 5 acres for every 25 MW (2015 data) and cannot be used for anything else; completely covered with panels; a 1,100 MW solar farm = 220 acres of farmland

From cleveland.com earlier this summer:

At least six gas-fired power plants are being built or on the drawing boards in Ohio.

All are being built by independent power companies. They hope to capitalize on Ohio's plentiful and cheap shale gas, on the decision by companies like FirstEnergy to close old coal-burning power plants rather than upgrade them or replace them with natural gas plants, and on proposed federal rules requiring power companies to cut their carbon dioxide emissions.

The latest gas project to make the news is in shale gas-rich Carroll County, where a Swiss power plant builder has begun grading parts of a 77-acre parcel about 2 miles outside of the county seat Carrollton. Carroll County Energy's 750-megawatt gas-fired power plant will have the capacity to generate enough electricity to power about 750,000 homes, on average.

More:

Ohio regulators recently told state lawmakers that they expect 4,300 megawatts of electricity to flow from new gas-fired power plants by 2019, most of it from plants owned by independent power companies.

At the same time, Ohio's old utilities are expected to close their coal plants. FirstEnergy, for example, is expected to close several old coal plants next week.

Advanced Power has chosen the internationally ranked heavy construction company Bechtel to build the Carrollton plant. About 700 temporary jobs will be created. The company expects to be generating and selling electricity by December 2017.  

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Reading Tea Leaves

EIA "energy cookie":

Health and environmental concerns related to the high sulfur content of residual fuel oil (RFO) have led to new policies and regulations that have significantly lowered expectations for future RFO use globally. As the demand for RFO declines, the need for the refining upgrades to convert residual material to lighter, cleaner products will increase. --- EIA

An opportunity for American refiners.