The Numbers Don't Add Up In So Many Ways -- October 8, 2015

SC Times applauds Xcel's recent announcement to shut down two coal-burning plants but asks the question, "what's the cost?" LOL. These idiots never talk about the number of coal-burning plants China is building every week. But back to the question, "at what cost." We'll know in a few years.

Electricity is so cheap in this country, Americans -- or at least those who live in California and Minnesota -- are willing to pay double, maybe triple what they pay now, just to feel good. Some data points from the article. From wiki: On October 2, 2015, Xcel Energy filed plans with the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission to shut down the plant's Unit 2 in 2023 and Unit 1 in 2026, each with a capacity of 750 MW (Sherco has three units).

• the two Sherco coal plants to be closed: 1,500 MW
• a new 700-MW natural gas plant: $700 million
• 50-MW solar installation: cost not provided, but at $2 million/MW = $100 million

Again, I may have misread things, and misunderstood things, but it appears that Xcel is eliminating 1,500 MW and replacing that with 750 MW. The coal plants have probably been paid for by rate-payers and now are simply a matter of maintenance (though, maintenance costs do go up as they get older, but nothing compared to brand new plants).

Solar is less than 20% efficient (or whatever the number is) and thus some of the "new" natural gas generated electricity will be needed to back up that intermittent energy. [Although Elon Musk is willing to sell Minnesotans millions of dollars worth of batteries to store electricity generated from all those sunny days in Minnesota; not much solar energy generated at night in Minnesota.]

One can also assume that the amount of energy Minnesotans use in 2023 and 2026 will be greater than it is today, unless Xcel is assuming that a lot of Minnesotans will be moving out of state, moving to California where they can pay even more to feel good.

By the way, the folks in Becker, where the coal plants are sited, are hoping that the natural gas plants will be built at the Sherco site, or nearby. From wiki:

The power plant has a normal staff of about 350 people, but up to 800 more employees are on site when the generating units are shut down and undergoing maintenance. The city borders of Becker extend around the plant, making the town heavily dependent on the plant for property tax revenue. The plant's annual $4 million property tax bill covers about 75% of the total for the city of about 4,600 people.

By the way, putting that 50-MW solar installation into perspective: Minnesota has a net summer electricity capacity of about 16,000 MW.

50/16000 = 0.3%. The feel-good factor.

[Note: from my perspective, switching from coal to natural gas is great news, as I've posted before. I have no problem with this. It's the intermittent energy I have problems with which I have problems.]