Idle Rambling On Global Crude Oil, Natural Gas Production -- October 24, 2015; ObamaCare Premiums To Be Released Monday, Minnesota Up As Much As 49%

Don sent an EIA link regarding crude oil and natural gas production coming out of the United Arab Emirates.

The "thing" that struck me was the graph showing the top ten global oil producers: US, at the top of the list producing 14 million bopd, Saudi Arabia, at #2 (12 million bopd), and Russia, at #3 (11 million bopd). The rest of the list does not matter.

For natural gas, Russia, with 1,700 trillion cubic feet) is #1 in natural gas reserves by a wide margin over #2, Iran (1,200); and, #3, Qatar (900). The rest of the top ten do not matter except for #4, the United States, currently estimated to have about 300 trillion cubic feet.

Two immediate thoughts:

• my hunch, based on what I've "learned" about the USGS and the Bakken, is that both natural gas reserves and oil reserves are greatly underestimated for the US, if not the world
• I never thought I would see the day when the US would be #1 in crude oil production and more than self-sufficient in natural gas, to become a huge exporter of same

I mentioned that to Don. He agreed, reminding me of the "gloom and doom" of 1973 - 1975 and then again in 1978 - 89. Things were so bad that there was serious talk of a 48-inch natural gas pipeline from the Alaskan North Slope to the Northwest Territory (Canada), and from there to the continental US.

As recently as 2005, MDU customers were being charged $14 / Mcft natural gas; this last billing period, MDU natural gas was down to $4.39 / Mcft.

$14 (2005) adjusts to almost $17 in 2014 dollars; and MDU is charging less than $5.00.

Likewise, gasoline at 40 cents/gallon in 1973 adjusts to $2.10 in 2014 dollars/gallon, about what we see today.

Oh, by the way, two other energy stories made the news in the past few days. I don't have the energy to spend much time on them (it took a lot of energy just to read them) but here are the links:

• the Washington Post is reporting that a shift in coal policies stokes fears in rural America
• The New York Times is reporting that a global chill in commodity demand is hitting America's heartland

I was really depressed after reading those articles. Depressed because of the schadenfreude tone of the East Coast press. After reading those two articles, I was under the impression that the world had finally quit using fossil fuel and would switch back to wood and buffalo chips. I still don't understand the hand-wringing about the glut of oil and natural gas. Would one rather have $200 oil, $30 natural gas? 

As I posted some weeks ago, I only see blue skies from now on. Affordable energy will not be an issue in my lifetime, the lifetime of my daughters, and probably not in the lifetime of my granddaughters.

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Time To Go?

The [London] Independent] is reporting that 8 of King Salman's eleven (11) surviving brothers want him ousted. Considering the younger brother that would replace him is 73 years old, doesn't sound like much of a change, but any royal intrigue at this time (Iran, Yemen, ISIS, Russia) is not a good omen for Saudia Arabia.

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Monday Morning Blahs? 

Check Out President Obama's Health Care Premiums For 2016

Updates

October 27, 2015: the numbers have been posted:

The federal government says the cost of a benchmark plan on HealthCare.gov will increase 7.5 percent for 2016 coverage, but most people will still be able to buy a plan for less than $100 a month, after tax credits.

Monday was the first day people could see 2016 prices on the website established under President Barack Obama's health care law. A new sign-up season starts Sunday, and consumers can start browsing now as they prepare to buy.

Rates increased by double digits in some states using the federal marketplace, but other states are seeing lower prices.

Insurers in many states had underpriced their plans and are raising rates because of medical inflation and higher claims than expected. Insurers are trying to find the right prices in the new marketplace.

Original Post

The AP is reporting that all health care is local, and averages don't matter:

Most states won't be like Minnesota, where all five carriers selling individual policies on the insurance exchange have posted double-digit increases, from 14 percent to 49 percent.

They're not likely to be like southern California either, where officials forecast an average rise of 1.8 percent for consumers who stay with their current plan.

For more than 8 in 10 customers, premium increases will be cushioned by taxpayer subsidies. That will absorb most of the cost, but it still may pay to shop around.

Premium increases will be as much as 49% -- if one's monthly premium is $500, that means a new premium of $750/month. Per adult. Thank goodness for two things:

• ObamaCare slowed down the rate of health care costs
• subsidies paid for by the wealthy middle class

I'm not aware of any premiums going down. As predicted, the major health care insurers are going to be reporting nice quarterly earnings in 1Q16, when the premiums start rolling in and the bills have not yet been "adjudicated" for payment.

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Hasn't Even Left The Station, But ...

Speaking of "trainwrecks," The Los Angeles Times is reporting that the $68-billion California bullet train will likely cost way more and come in way late.

The monumental task of building California's bullet train will require punching 36 miles of tunnels through the geologically complex mountains north of Los Angeles.

Crews will have to cross the tectonic boundary that separates the North American and Pacific plates, boring through a jumble of fractured rock formations and a maze of earthquake faults, some of which are not mapped.

It will be the most ambitious tunneling project in the nation's history.

State officials say the tunnels will be finished by 2022 — along with 300 miles of track, dozens of bridges or viaducts, high-voltage electrical systems, a maintenance plant and as many as six stations. Doing so will meet a commitment to begin carrying passengers between Burbank and Merced in the first phase of the $68-billion high-speed rail link between Los Angeles and San Francisco.

However, a Times analysis of project documents, as well as interviews with scientists, engineers and construction experts, indicates that the deadline and budget targets will almost certainly be missed — and that the state has underestimated the challenges ahead, particularly completing the tunneling on time. I don't even want to see the new estimates.

But let's look, anyway.

Oh, that's not bad. Only 5% over-budget. LOL.

Let's go back a few years:

Public opinion polls taken over the years have shown that support for the project has ebbed as costs have risen — and at $68 billion, the budget is already more than double the $33-billion estimate made by the rail authority before California voters approved bonds for the project seven years ago.

Oh, there it is, at the very end of the article:

Flyvbjerg's research found that high-speed rail projects around the world experience an average of 45% cost growth, though 100% increases occur in some cases.

First phase, Burbank to Merced. In 2020, one will be able to leave Burbank at 6:00 a.m. and arrive in time for breakfast at McDonalds in Merced in a self-driving car, and still have a car to tool around in. The bullet train leaves you without a car in Merced. Okay. Why anyone would be going to Merced in the first place is the real question.

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Oh, That Storm!

Billed as the largest (or near-largest) hurricane ever, Hurricane Patricia resulted in no deaths, minimal damage, and de-escalated to a tropical storm within hours of hitting landfall. Extreme weather.