Struggling To Find Good News -- September 2, 2015

Not many good news stories out there right now except that, I guess, the president has decided to open the Arctic to Big Oil and maritime shippers.

2Q15 productivity strongest in one-and-a-half years, along with a 3.7% GDP growth in 2Q15, we now have corroborating data that things are hunky-dory in America. The revisions really, really, really help:

The Labor Department on Wednesday revised productivity to show it rising at a 3.3 percent annual rate, the quickest since the fourth quarter of 2013, instead of the 1.3 percent pace reported last month. 

One can only wonder how much massaging the Labor Department had to do to revise from 1.3 percent to 3.3 percent. If that doesn't sound fishy, I don't know what does.  A revision from 1.3 percent to 3.3 percent? Call me ... skeptical.

Remember, the GDP was likewise revised upward from 2.3 percent to 3.7 percent. 

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"Magic Numbers" 

< 200,000 new jobs = economic stagnation

US private sector added 190,000 jobs in August. These were the ADP private jobs data. The government will release the "more comprehensive" number on Friday which will include both private and public sector jobs.

I've long forgotten the "magic numbers." These numbers were posted near the beginning of the Obama presidency when we were deep in the recession and a gazillion dollars were being helicoptered over Wall Street to stimulate "the economy." I had a hunch that the long-accepted jobs criteria for economic growth would be changed over time, so I posted the "magic numbers" as they stood then and have never changed them, though I have commented on how others have changed them.

Here are the "magic numbers":
The Magic Numbers

First time claims, unemployment benefits: 400,000 (> 400,000: economic stagnation)

New jobs: 200,000 (< 200,000 new jobs: economic stagnation)

So, let's see how Reuters at the linked story interpret 190,000 new jobs in August:

U.S. private employers added 190,000 jobs in August, short of economists' expectations.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 201,000 jobs.

Economists polled by Reuters are looking for total U.S. employment to have grown by 220,000 jobs in August, a modest climb from July's 215,000 figure.

 It appears "total jobs" will beat the 200,000 threshhold for "economic growth."