The Bakken -- August 15, 2015

June's production in North Dakota was the second highest in the history for the state despite efforts to really, really, really cut back on production. Rigs are down to less than 75 (compared to 220 during the boom); the number of wells waiting to be fracked is almost at record highs (825; the record high is around 900); operators choking back because a) of NDIC flaring rules; b) low crude oil prices; c) refineries unable to take any more oil; d) refineries down for maintenance; e) inadequate pipelines; f) Tioga gas plant at less than capacity; and, there are probably some reasons I've forgotten or don't even know about.

But this is what really caught my attention today. The June production (most recent data available) showed there was an increase of 0.7% month-over-month. Two comments:

• the Obama administration had predicted that the Bakken would show a decline of almost 30,000 bopd, when in fact, it was about 9,000 bopd increase
• this follows the previous month when there was an astounding 2.7% increase month-over-month; after a 2.7% increase, I would have expected a decline in June

I think 750,000 bopd out of the Bakken would be just fine until the price gets back to something reasonable. I see no need to give Bakken oil away like the Saudis are giving their oil away.