Bakken Update: High Grading -- It's Effect On US Oil Production -- Mike Filloon -- Seeking Alpha -- August 17, 2015

Link here. Archived.

Summary:

• high grading has improved the economics of U.S. unconventional oil wells, with production 200% to 700% better in some cases
• operators have started the developmental phase of production, slowing exploration to get acreage held by production
• pad drilling decreases costs, further providing a lower breakeven point. Rig numbers continue to increase as operators are running through core fracklog
• the resilience of U.S. operators has kept production levels high, and might continue to push oil prices lower

The first graph at the linked site is incredible. US crude oil production:

• 2011: 170 million bbls/month
• 2015: almost 300 million bbls/month

US crude oil production almost doubled in four years, and it was all due to tight oil in the Bakken, the Permian, and the Eagle Ford (memo to self: send a note to Jane "it's all hype" Nielsen). During this period, oil production in Alaska and California was decreasing.

Miscellaneous comment from the post, something I have said from the beginning:

Lower well pressures produce less resource, so there is a slower decline. This is a misunderstood concept. While some focus on high rates of decline, total production is all that matters. Operators care less about an increased decline rate, especially if the well reaches payback sooner.

The article compares a few wells in the "fringe" with wells in the best of the Bakken.

It's another great article by Mike Filloon, but for regular readers I'm not sure it provides much new information. It re-emphasizes what most of us know.