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Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Another Graphic For Jane Nielsen -- August 19, 2015; Finally Bird Lovers Understand Wind Energy -- It Took Them Long Enough

The three major oily plays in the US: the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, and the Permian. In the long-term, it will be a race between the Bakken and the Permian for bragging rights. Conventional wisdom is that the Permian will get bragging rights.

In the near term, as prices for crude oil (WTI) start drifting into the $30-range, it will be the productivity/rig that will start to gain more attention. And, yes, the EIA, tracks that.

Here is the most recent data, released August 10, 2015. The next release is scheduled for September 14, 2015.

The EIA tracks the seven most important shale regions (only four of which are oily, and of those four, only three matter at the moment). The EIA notes: these seven regions accounted for 95% of domestic oil production growth and all domestic natural gas production growth during 2011-13.

In the graphic below, note the ovals in "green." Looking at the "green" ovals and comparing the oil production/well in the Permian against the Bakken speaks volumes. It explains why the recent New York Times article talked about the "demise" of the fracking industry in Texas rather than the Bakken (in the headline).


I would assume the day-rates for rigs would be similar in all regions, but that may not be true. The Bakken is heavily weighted with the brand new flex rigs that can "walk" to the next site while pad drilling. I do not know the extent to which operators are using these huge rigs and/or pad drilling in the Permian.

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Obama's Wind Farms, 504; Bald Eagles, 1

But it's an important first point.

In a WSJ op-ed, it was noted that "a California judge has ruled in favor of bald eagles and against 30-year permits to shred them."
Chalk one up for the bald eagle. The avian symbol of American freedom has beaten the Obama administration and the wind industry in court, though the majestic birds still don’t stand a chance when flying near the subsidy-fueled blades of green-energy production.
On Aug. 11, a federal judge in the Northern District of California shot down a rule proposed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) that would have allowed the wind industry to legally kill bald eagles and golden eagles for up to three decades.
The ruling is a setback for the wind industry and President Obama’s Clean Power Plan, which depends on tripling domestic wind-energy capacity to meet the plan’s projected cuts in carbon-dioxide emissions by 2030. The ruling also exposes the Obama administration’s cozy relationship with the wind industry and the danger to wildlife posed by a major expansion of wind-energy capacity.
U.S. District Judge Lucy H. Koh, an Obama appointee, ruled in favor of the plaintiff, the American Bird Conservancy, and against the FWS’s “eagle take” rule. Judge Koh found that the FWS violated the National Environmental Policy Act in 2013 when the agency’s director, Dan Ashe, decided that the agency could issue permits to wind-energy companies that would have allowed them to lawfully kill eagles for up to 30 years without first doing an environmental-impact assessment. Permits were previously limited to five years.
The tide is beginning to turn. I hope North Dakota legislators are paying attention. We know Iowa (and Texas) no longer care.

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A Note For The Granddaughters

I "came to" the Grand Canyon late in life. However, after driving cross-country multiple times from Texas to southern California over the past fifteen years, I have finally gotten the "bug" for the southwest, New Mexico, Arizona, Route 66, the Grand Canyon and associated parks in the region.

I would argue that one of the best books describing the development the southwest after the Civil War is Stephen Fried's Appetite for America.

Railroad buffs might enjoy the book, especially those folks with a "broad" interest in railroads.

I am so excited about what I've read in the book, I am planning on an extensive cross-country trip next summer to the Santa Fe / Taos (New Mexico) area with a side-trip to Pueblo, Colorado.

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