Wednesday, July 1, 2015 -- Part IV: The Atlantic Monthly Vs Reality; The Bakken Still Has Bragging Rights -- Williams County Trounces Cass County

On June 29, 2015, The Atlantic Monthly famously said the Bakken boom was a bust.

On June 30, 2015 -- yes, that would be one day later than the Atlantic Monthly's story (talk about poor timing): KXNET reported that 1Q15 taxable sales in North Dakota are higher than a year ago. Now remember:

• the Bakken has been at this for eight years
• Bakken production plateaued at 1 million bopd with the Saudi surge
• Bakken crude was selling for as low as $38 on the spot market
• active rig counts dropped from 200 to 76 in a relatively short time

And then we have this from the linked story:

The first quarter of 2015 saw a jump of 2.26 percent compared to last year. One of the biggest increases was in the retail industry. Tax Commissioner Ryan Rauschenberger said the increase came as a surprise considering the low price of oil during the beginning of the year. 

Now how in the world did this happen? Oh, that's right. It was a mild winter in North Dakota; folks went shopping.

This is from The Bismarck Tribune.

The 1Q15 numbers at the North Dakota state website:

Of the 50 largest cities in North Dakota, the highest percent increases for the first quarter of 2015 (compared to the first quarter of 2014) were as follows:

• Walhalla – Increase of 39.77 percent
• Linton – Increase of 19.65 percent
• Cavalier – Increase of 18.15 percent
• Larimore – Increase of 17.72 percent
• Minot – Increase of 10.76 percent

Full report here: North Dakota 1Q15 taxable sales PDF.

By county:

• Cass County: $673,603,504
• Williams County: $880,758,741
• Stark County: $301,268,910

By city:

• Fargo: $586,272,823
• Williston: $703,517,913
• Dickinson: $279,965,591

But Williston/Williams County bragging rights may not last long. Fargo's quarter-over-quarter was a 3% increase; Williams County declined by a whopping 13%; and, Stark County by 9%.

For those interested, here are:

• the numbers for calendar year 2014
• the numbers for 4Q14