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Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Wednesday, July 1, 2015 -- Part IV: The Atlantic Monthly Vs Reality; The Bakken Still Has Bragging Rights -- Williams County Trounces Cass County

On June 29, 2015, The Atlantic Monthly famously said the Bakken boom was a bust.
On June 30, 2015 -- yes, that would be one day later than the Atlantic Monthly's story (talk about poor timing): KXNET reported that 1Q15 taxable sales in North Dakota are higher than a year ago. Now remember:
  • the Bakken has been at this for eight years
  • Bakken production plateaued at 1 million bopd with the Saudi surge
  • Bakken crude was selling for as low as $38 on the spot market
  • active rig counts dropped from 200 to 76 in a relatively short time
And then we have this from the linked story:
The first quarter of 2015 saw a jump of 2.26 percent compared to last year. One of the biggest increases was in the retail industry. Tax Commissioner Ryan Rauschenberger said the increase came as a surprise considering the low price of oil during the beginning of the year. 
Now how in the world did this happen? Oh, that's right. It was a mild winter in North Dakota; folks went shopping.

This is from The Bismarck Tribune.

The 1Q15 numbers at the North Dakota state website:

Of the 50 largest cities in North Dakota, the highest percent increases for the first quarter of 2015 (compared to the first quarter of 2014) were as follows:
  • Walhalla – Increase of 39.77 percent
  • Linton – Increase of 19.65 percent
  • Cavalier – Increase of 18.15 percent
  • Larimore – Increase of 17.72 percent
  • Minot – Increase of 10.76 percent
Full report here: North Dakota 1Q15 taxable sales PDF.

By county:
  • Cass County: $673,603,504
  • Williams County: $880,758,741
  • Stark County: $301,268,910
By city:
  • Fargo: $586,272,823
  • Williston: $703,517,913
  • Dickinson: $279,965,591
But Williston/Williams County bragging rights may not last long. Fargo's quarter-over-quarter was a 3% increase; Williams County declined by a whopping 13%; and, Stark County by 9%.

For those interested, here are:

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