Monday, July 20, 2015, Part II -- A Little Bit Of Everything

Diesel glut in the United Kingdom. Diesel now less expensive than gasoline in England, as supermarkets cut prices.

The price of diesel has fallen below petrol at some supermarkets for the first time in more than a decade, after the big chains announced price cuts.

Supermarket Morrisons cut the price of diesel by up to 2p per litre, and Tesco, Asda and Sainsbury's followed the move with their own price cuts.

The last time diesel was cheaper than petrol was 2001.

"This is a milestone in motoring and many younger drivers won't remember the last time that diesel prices were lower than unleaded."

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Oman

Oman exports to China surge:

Oman exported more crude oil in June than it produced after trading giant ChinaOil picked up an unprecedented 49 cargoes during the Platts Dubai Market on Close assessment process in April.

China, which has been the biggest buyer of Oman crude in recent years, accounted for 90% of the country's overall crude exports in June, up more than 12% from May, according to data released by Oman's oil and gas ministry over the weekend.

Oman exported 912,015 b/d of crude oil in June -- up 11.28% from May -- even as its production was only 888,636 b/d, according to government data.

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VLCC

I just mentioned VLCC the other day. 

VLCC rates surge:

For owners of the supertankers capable of hauling more than 2m barrels of crude around the world, the crash in oil prices has been good for business.

After suffering five years of flatlining rates and shrinking profits, operators of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) are enjoying strong trading conditions for the first time since the financial crisis, when a glut of tankers came on the market just as demand collapsed.

Since the turn of the year, the cost of hiring a VLCC has jumped more than 50 per cent, with the rate for shipping oil from Saudi Arabia to Japan — the benchmark supertanker route — rising to almost $90,000 a day, a seven-year seasonal high.

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China Going Nuclear

China will soon be #3 in nuclear energy production:China will soon surpass South Korea, Russia, and Japan in nuclear generating capacity. From nuclear energy:

• US: 100 GW 
• France: 60 GW
• China: 20 GW today; 45 GW in 2020; it looks like China goes over 40 GW in 2017
• Japan: 40 GW
• Russia: 20 GW
• South Korea: 20 GW

There are more than a few story lines there.

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Kemp Says This Is Must-Read Article On Iran

The New Yorker.

My thoughts after reading that article, some predictions and probabilities:

• 100% likelihood:  Iran will be the superpower in the Mideast within 5 years. Saudi Arabia has a lot to fear. Israel has a lot to fear but will do just fine. Saudi is in Iran's crosshairs in the short term; Israel can wait. How worried is Saudi about this deal? Saudi prince ready to strike Iran unilaterally.
• 75% likelihood: Iraq will, at best be "Baghdad" five years from now. 
• 30% probability:  ISIS with its capital in northern Syria (al-Raqqa) will move its capital to one of the major mideast cities within five years, either Beirut, Damascus, or Baghdad. 
• 90% likelihood: Turkey will negotiate with ISIS. 
• 100% likelihood: Kurdistan will have its hands full fighting off ISIS. 

The big question is whether Iran "annexes" Syria, and in so doing what it's relationship with ISIS will be. It's very possible Iran might be the only country that can "defeat" ISIS.

I think the wildcard is ISIS. Without ISIS this would be a slam-dunk for Iran.
 

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How's Spieth Doing?

Wow, talk about a great tournament. Jordan Spieth is one back from the lead. No less than five golfers are tied for the lead; four more are one back, including Jordan Spieth, and even Sergio Garcia is tied with Spieth. Three more are two back. That takes us through the top ten. A nice round number for a leaderboard. Too bad it's Monday, and not Sunday. It's starting to rain and the weather will determine the winner. Anthony Wall, one back, is on the back nine and will finish well before the others. If the weather is a factor, he might just pull it off.

Later, 10:31: Anthony Wall let it slip away; near the end is 5 back; two at 15 under; five at 14 under including Jordan Spieth.

Later, 10:48: Spieth drops back another stroke. It's all about the weather now. Golfers battling the rain. The weather would have to get pretty severe for officials to delay this tournament again. These players have a tight schedule. This gets them off schedule. Maybe it was a "lucky" break for Tiger to miss the cut. Which reminds me, how is "Lefty" doing - tied at 23.

Later, 12:52 p.m. Central time: Spieth ends up tied for 2nd, among the top four. Top two, Zach Johnson and Marc Leishman will go to a play-off.

Later, 13:59 p.m. Central time: Zach Johnson won.

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Income Inequality

Apparently growing in the US. See comment comparing Sweden and US.

2.5 million illegals have entered the US under President Obama; 400,000 yearly.

Could there be a connection?

The question is not whether income inequality is increasing or decreasing, the question is whether it matters? See graph at this link (you will have to scroll down a long way to find the graph at the link; find "gini" for the graph at the link.