Thursday -- Unemployment Claims Surge -- May 28, 2015

Thursday is always a big day for posting data, stories. I think I will quit updating everything below. Any new updates will be clearly marked as updates.

Coolest thing today: bobcat (cougar, puma, big non-domestic cat) outside Starbucks this morning here near DFW.

Second coolest thing today: activity continues to heat up around Richardton, ND. I got a report from Don that pipe is being brought in / pre-positioned / near Richardton, probably for the ETP pipeline. If so, it would so southeast from there towards South Dakota (reminder: the Aberdeen story). In addition, progress should be continuing on the Richardton trans-loading terminal. The terminal is south of the railroad (between the railroad track and I-94), west of Richardton. Connect that dot with the fact that last autumn there was a report from the field that "earth was starting to be moved" for this project. Connect that dot with an earlier dot that Halliburton was shutting down its operations in Minot. And finally connect that dot with the Chesapeake story below from Investopedia on re-fracking. It could be quite a story line if one wanted to pursue it. 

Jobs: economists had forecast a drop in unemployment claims by 5,000; in fact, the number of first-time unemployment claims surged 7,000 -- a delta of 12,000 between expected and reality. 

Re-fracking: Chesapeake, being reported over at Investopedia. If the link is broken, consider this link. 

Active rigs:

	5/28/2015	05/28/2014	05/28/2013	05/28/2012	05/28/2011
Active Rigs	84	189	186	216	172

RBN Energy: Asian LNG demand set to rise -- as prices plummet

Asian consumers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) hope to use the current supply glut—and the start-up of U.S. LNG export facilities--to their long-term advantage. Their very understandable goal is to up-end the old market structure, which for years has had them paying far more for LNG than their Western European counterparts. How will the coming revolution affect U.S. natural gas producers and the next round of U.S. LNG export projects? Today, we continue our review of the fast-changing global market for LNG with a look at a new set of Asian LNG buyers and at the region’s fast-changing supply/demand dynamics.

I will post this again as a stand-alone, if I remember. It's a big, big story. It dwarfs the EIA renewable story being reported below.

Belfast: Baltimore. CBSLocal is reporting that, not me.

Spin: four words Janet Yellen hates to see in the same sentence -- Reuters is reporting:

unemployment claims unexpectedly surge

Lucia Mutikani says this unexpected surge is nothing to worry about; the job market is still on track, still consistent with a strengthening labor market. Indications are that these boiler-plates are posted the night before, in draft form, and as soon as the numbers are released, the numbers are put into the story and released. So these are the data points today:

• unemployment claims surge unexpectedly by 7,000; now up to an adjusted 282,000
• this is the beginning of the very, very buy summer hiring season for all those high-paying construction jobs, especially in the oil and gas industry
• last week's number was also raised, adjusted up by another 1,000 -- not trivial -- last week was already a high number
• without getting into specifics (which suggests bad news), Lucia says the 4-week average stayed under 300,000 -- but the trend must be going the wrong way, and it must be just barely under 300,000 -- based on the fact specifics were not given
• economists expected the number to be "slipping" -- as in decreasing -- to 270,000 -- which would have been a drop of 5,000; instead of dropping 5,000, it rose 12,000
• wow, I was correct -- deep in the story, the 4-week average which is supposed to be much less volatile soared by 5,000 -- that is amazing

Lucia was the name of James Joyce's only daughter.

More spin, the EIA "energy cookie":

Renewable energy accounted for 9.8% of total domestic energy consumption in 2014. This marks the highest renewable energy share since the 1930s, when wood was a much larger contributor to domestic energy supply…Renewable energy use grew an average of 5% per year over 2001-2014 from its most recent low in 2001. The increase over the past 14 years was in part because of growing use of wind, solar, and biofuels. -- EIA 

Comments: so many story lines -- some quickies
a) wind farms being paid not to produce electricity in the northwest
b) "in part" -- the key renewable that was not mentioned: hydroelectric -- that's where the biggest increase in renewable energy has been
c) note well -- that 5% increase was NOT 5% of the TOTAL increase in energy production; this was 5% increase in renewable energy; solar energy accounts for zero percent of US electricity consumption when rounded to the nearest whole number (nada, zilch, nil); 5% of 0% is still a pretty small number
d) renewable projects are fast-tracked; oil and gas industry projects are sandbagged, delayed (Keystone XL was killed; Sandpiper was sandbagged)
e) the 5% was an average over each year; it would be interesting to see the trend line
f) this 5% growth comes after gazillions of dollars in tax breaks, subsidies
g) EV sales have been a disaster
h) EIA comments are US-centric, see RBN Energy story above

NG fill rate: 112, right at the 5-year average; remember -- roughnecks are producing natural gas at record levels as consumers switch from coal to natural gas, and the roughnecks are still having trouble keeping up. Fill rate is right at the 5-year average.

Gasoline demand: apparently the EIA is still massaging the data; the data is supposed to be released today (the website confirms it is to be released today); and on the day it is released, it is always released at 10:30 a.m. ET. It's possible the 3-day holiday will delay the report until tomorrow -- but one would assume they knew a week ago that there was a 3-day weekend this week. [Update: the data was finally released; I remembered to check about 8:30 p.m. and there it was.]

Whose side is he on, anyway? This should be the most disturbing story all day -- it appears the President is purposely holding back in taking on the JV team. One has to ask the question, if the US has such a strong presence in the Mideast, and as the president once said, he could take out the JV team if he wanted, why is that not happening? It appears the pilots have the answer. It certainly fits the story line.