Zeits On The Global Gas And Oil "Situation" -- April 20, 2015

Zeits is writing:

In the past few years, U.S. shales have remained one of the most popular headline themes in the oil-focused financial media. 

With shale oil being the industry's most dynamic "new kid on the block," some of that attention is well deserved. However, the intense coverage has also been due to the simple fact that the U.S. Oil & Gas is one of the world's most "investable," fragmented and open industries. As a result, hundreds of publicly-traded companies offer rich streams of information to a very large universe of interested investors, fueling an intense information dissemination. 

However, oil is a global commodity and it is important not to lose perspective on its global fundamentals by focusing too much on U.S. tight oil. It would be particularly precarious to extrapolate the dynamics that one can currently observe in the North American Land segment onto the rest of the global oil industry, which is often less visible and less understood by investors. 

While all industry participants feel the pain of the low oil prices, the following anecdotal data points show that the cycle may be playing out differently in the U.S. shales than in the rest of the world:

• Saudi Arabia and several other GCC producers appear to be quite busy increasing their investment in production capacity.
• Russia's activity in legacy operating areas remains steady.
• U.S. Gulf of Mexico deepwater activity is on the rise (although focus is apparently shifting towards development projects, away from exploration).
• By contrast, U.S. operators reduced the aggregate oil-directed rig count two-fold in a matter of just three months, a dramatic adjustment given the industry's sheer size.

***********************************

Apple Page

I just spent a most delightful hour in the Apple retail store in Southlake (Texas) still trying to get a handle on problems with the MacBook Pro that I "work to death." Every time I go into the store to be helped (rather than just browsing) I am blown away by how "good" they really are.

Their methods may not suit everyone, but considering the volume of customers they need to serve, and the vast continuum of knowledge of their consumers (from no knowledge to quite smart about Apple products, hardware and software) they do quite well.

When working a problem at the genius bar, it takes awhile to for systems to install and then reboot. It's always a challenge to get the genius to engage in small talk but if one is successful, it's very, very rewarding.

On a scale of 1 to 10, the genius who helped me today was a 5 or 6 but with some coaxing, he became a 7 or 8 but kept his remarks serious. His buddy, who is relatively new, and who I really like a lot, is easily a 10, but is not nearly as knowledgeable about the Apple as others working that area. Last week, the individual who helped me was a) either having a bad day, or b) that was simply his personality. He worked my problem very hard, but didn't seem much interested in anything else. It would have been better just to leave the computer at the store, fix the problem, and then pick it up later. Be that as it may, I'm never disappointed; I just have better experiences some day than others.

Some trivia.

The genius who I enjoy talking to most is really enamored with the new MacBook. We didn't get a chance to really discuss it, but he says it's a bit early to say for sure how much he will end up liking it, but right now, he really, really likes it. I'm not sold on it yet ... no Sandisk slot is the biggest negative for me.

He also agrees with me that the Apple Retail stores are in need of a re-boot to match the luxuriousness of the new watches.

The genius who worked with me today and is perhaps one of the two best I've met at the retail store here in Southlake agreed with me that the "current" MacBook Air is excellent. The "original" MacBook Airs were not good in his estimation.

He also remarked that it's very important that if folks have marginal understanding of the capability of today's computers, they spend a bit of time discussing it with Apple employees -- and several Apple employees -- to determine which product is best any one individual. For example, a heavy, heavy older user (like me) might find the MacBook Air more than adequate but for someone going off to college, no. At least a MacBook Pro. College students need a whole lot more memory than what the Air will provide. But as folks get used to pushing more and more stuff to the cloud, even this becomes less of an issue.

Boomboxes? Sometime ago I bought the UE for my wife and we love it. I had gone in to buy the Pill by Beats but the Apple employee that day recommended the UE. Today, out of curiosity I asked the two employees working that area which they prefer: Beats Pill or the UE. Hands down, without even pausing, both said the UE.

I see Apple now says that some watches will be arriving in the mail as promised on April 24th. They are starting to ship to be at the fulfillment centers on April 23rd and then delivered the next day. Much more of the story here, but it sounds like Ms Ahrendts is earning her pay.

By the way, speaking of the Apple Watch -- run through these most recently announced apps. Quite impressive to say the least -- and note, even Microsoft has a photo app for the Apple Watch.