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OPEC says the US oil boom will end this year:
OPEC says the demand for oil – its oil – will rise during 2015 because the cartel is winning its price war against US shale producers by driving them out of business.
“Higher global refinery runs, driven by increased [summer] seasonal demand, along with the improvement in refinery margins, are likely to increase demand for crude oil over the coming months,” the cartel said in its Monthly Market Report, issued, April 16.
OPEC forecasts demand at an average of 29.27 million barrels per day in the first quarter 2015, a rise of 80,000 bpd from its previous prediction made in its March report. At the same time, it said, the cartel’s own total output will increase by only 680,000 barrels per day, less than the previous expectation of 850,000 barrels per day, due to lower US and other non-OPEC production.More:
OPEC said, it expects that US supplies of oil will increase to around 13.65 million barrels a day in this year’s second quarter, but then flatten and begin to turn down for the rest of the 2015. This applies to Canadian production as well. “US tight oil and Canadian oil sands output are expected to see lower growth following the recent strong declines in rig counts,” the report said.The consumers are the winners. Lots of story lines here. The most important thing for Saudi is to keep the Americans, the Chinese, and the subcontinent Indians addicted to oil, and giving it away at $50/bbl is a big help.
Whatever happened to all those oil speculators? LOL.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2015/04/17/new-capital-is-postponing-the-day-of-reckoning-for-oil-companies/
ReplyDeleteGreat article; somewhat superficial (like a lot of Forbes articles). Short on specifics, but there are some pearls in there. Thank you for sending the link.
DeleteMy take:
US oil and gas industry will adapt; better positioned than in last bust.
Consumer could be winner, unless Saudi Arabia is setting us up for a huge price spike.
If Saudi unable to get prices up, the Mideast / OPEC could be the real losers -- it costs a lot of money to fight all those wars and subsidize all your citizens who are used to gasoline at 45 cents/gallon.