Idle Chatter By Folks Watching The Oil Market - April 4, 2015

I missed this. OilPrice reported this yesterday:

The EIA reported continued gains in oil inventory coming in slightly above expectations at 4.8MB. But for the first time this year production actually dropped 36,000BD overall and 37,000BD in the lower 48.

This runs contra to almost every media report and sell side analyst that has been spouting off that production would continue to rise thru at least 3Q rising 500,000-700,000B/D for the year.

And, as a reminder, the lower 48 production is an EIA estimate which I [the writer of this article is Leonard Brecken] guarantee will be revised downward in the coming quarters as actual data gets processed.

The oil over rail [CBR] data bears this out especially in TX where it dropped 25% recently as already reported here, while the EIA assumed production in the Permian would continue to rise. What was amazing is how shell shocked the talking head media were on this surprise turn of events. 

I didn't see the news or watch television, so I don't know how "shell-shocked" the talking head media were on this "surprise turn of events."  I do not know the particulars of the writer's "guarantee." But "guarantees" of this sort are usually worth the paper they are written on.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here This particular article and this particular site tend to be fairly superficial but it is what it is. If in fact, production continues to drop, it decreases the likelihood that WTI will stay under $53 through the end of May. 

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Sleepless In Seattle

Bertha has been raised; will undergo repairs; and, inshallah, will begin drilling again in August.