How Serious Is It For OPEC? -- April 27, 2015

We won't know for several years how the North American energy revolution plays out. There at least two major points of view, and they can be boiled down pretty simply: a) OPEC wins; b) OPEC loses.

I have my own thoughts but those thoughts and $2.11 will get you a small cup of light roast (or dark roast) at the Daily Addiction on Main Street in Williston. They now open at 6:00 a.m. During the boom, they opened at 7:00 a.m.

CNBC is reporting:

As benign as the politics of oil have become for the U.S., it has become an enormous source of social strain for OPEC countries, many of which are being deprived of the currency needed to maintain social stability. According to data from the International Monetary Fund, countries such as Iran need a price of around $122 per barrel of oil just to balance their budgets. Several others need a price of between $100 and $130 per barrel to come close to breaking even.

Meanwhile, energy watchers say the U.S. could be doing even more to loosen the constraints imposed by oil producers overseas. In theory, that could heap even more pressure on oil prices.

One can argue: a) OPEC wins; b) OPEC loses.

But the tea leaves suggest that Saudi Arabia needs $100-oil. They've been giving it away for $50 for several months now.  But at $50 oil:

• social upheaval is all but guaranteed in several oil-producing countries
• China, India, and the US become more addicted to oil (if it's possible to become "more" addicted to oil -- perhaps better said, more dependent on oil)
• wind and solar become less and less attractive, requiring more and more government "green" mandates and tax credits

At the moment oil is up one percent, which of course makes no sense with the glut of oil, Saudi with no intent to cut back, and global demand falling (at least that's what we were told last week). It will be interesting to hear what the pundits have to say about this if the price of oil closes higher today. There are really only two explanations: a) speculators; and, b) Saudi is feeling the pressure.

Or maybe it's the Mideast War -- MW III -- the one that is not being reported by the mainstream media.